You're likely going to pay 2BB to try and win half of an 8.5BB pot or 4.25BB so calling is profitable if you win the high OTR > 2/4.5 or ~45% of the time.

buzz

i just started using odds oracle - its from the same guy as PQL and is beefed up a little

it has some card removal functions that i have started using in 08 sims - its not perfect, but it is way easier than me trying to work them out myself

it lets you ask questions like: what are the odds at least one player has the nut low on the turn and what are the odds at least one player has the spade flush draw on the turn
[given their starting range]

similarly: it can also estimate what are the odds of at least one player being on the nut low draw given the board, your cards, and players starting ranges

i've been using this to revisit my approach to some tricky situations


my numbers came out a little different than yours but i reached the same conclusion that we should be calling the turn and can probably play river profitable for 1-2 bets

That's Bachfan, the ProPokerTools guy. He does good work.

The exact way you phrase the question affects the way the problem is set up. Perhaps that's the difference.

Anyhow, thanks for the information.

Buzz

I can't even describe how many times I've called a river bet saying I hope to get 1/2 and get 3/4 or scoop or say I hope to get a 1/4 and get 1/2. While you shouldn't scoop here, I'm def betting AT3, A445... Etc in MP2 spot. I would prob even bets hands like A56, which would make folding a disaster.

I would also expect to
See a wheel less than you may think given that lots of 35xx hands are going To consist of hands where x = 4 and villain raises flop or x = A and villian raises preflop. While neither of these raises will happen anywhere close to 100% the lack of either occurring has to discount the range of 35xx hands we are up against. Not to mention the 5 in our hand.

And I would probably call you down. But you're not the villain OP described. His type of player has a wheel most of them time and when he doesn't he's freerolling you w a big draw.

Good poker is making the right decisions vs the actual villain you're playing against not an idealized villain or a villain who plays like you.