Villain is aggressive in spots and rarely shows down a loser. Has flamed me as a fish for hitting my redraw to a boat after a capped turn where we both had Broadway. He is up >$50 in this session when this hand unfolds;



Given the history, is this too nitty of a fold?

not too nitty:
1) if someone has the wheel, you draw as a big dog for half.
2) if someone doesn't have the wheel, you still don't get more than half, and very likely to get outdrawn for high and be left with nothing.
3) A isn't an out.
4) people tend to have the cards you need.
5) reverse implied odds.

what is our range for check/calling turn after betting the flop?

Good question. I was hoping for a bunch of folds from counterfeited low hands with my bet OTF, but it didn't work at all. I feel like 6, 7, 8, 9 keep me in the lead on the turn, and I can still bet/call, though 12 of those outs chop up the pot. I'm probably check/calling any J, Q, K... An A scares me but I won't fold to one bet.

K, Q or J are generally better turn cards than 6, 7, 8 or 9.

I instinctively would've bet the flop as well, but thinking it through w the benefit of time, hero's hand while likely best OTF is so vulnerable as to likely have little more than its fair share of equity (main issue is no low draw or high redraw) and obviously has poor RIO attached.

With that in mind, the best flop play would be to try and isolate through a x/r (say last position bets and SB folds).

OTT a fold is not too nitty if bettor is on the nitty side as the read suggests. If flop was checked through, I'd bet a high turn card.

Isn't there is a non-zero chance he has something like aces up with a live wheel card here? I don't think you can say we *never* scoop.

Possible but highly unlikely vs 2 opponents. If neither villain has a wheel then obv hero should call. That said, the nitty villain or the caller will have a wheel often enough (and good equity vs hero's hand when they don't) that hero probably doesn't have enough equity vs their ranges to call.

Isn't possible that he would bet #2 low once everyone checked to him? Or 44xx, aces up, some decent high+ decent low combo? I don't think 1/2 online player has to have the nuts here.

Even if worst case scenario and V has 35xx a call is still super inexpensive when you consider that you will fill up on river around 22% of the time.

no reason to count aces as outs.
also, cards we need are in villian's hands and it's for only half the pot.
if the wheel is out there, we should have less than 10%.
if not, we're just badly freerolled and with RIO.

You sure are pessimistic. Not only do you want him to have a wheel but also to have all of our outs and possibly have us drawing dead... I don't buy it, he has one or the other but not both.

Do you call river unimproved? If so, you're getting 6.5 to 2 meaning you'd need ~50% equity for the high vs 2 opponent's ranges assuming either has a low (which is obv very very likely).

I don't think a set on an A high board w possible wheel and 2 to a flush has that much equity.

note: i'm not going to answer all of these right now, i plan on coming back and answering them all once i figure it out, i'm trying to work on developing some of my math skills for this game since card elimination is so important

part 1: what is the odds of a player being dealt 35xx with 8 players, this flop, and our cards (if there is a thread on where i can learn to calculate this, or a tool that does it can someone kindly direct me to it)

1 players:
2 players:
3 players:


part 2: assuming we are not against the wheel

there are up to 21 turn cards that could cost us the pot: generally it is going to be less cards than that because if villains don't have the wheel they are likely to have part of it

also important, how often does 1 of these players have a flush draw:


333, 555, 678, JJJ, QQQ, KKK, AAA possible trouble cards


part 3: how much do we expect to gain or lose on the river, given we are all ready playing for half the pot?

We don't know that guy behind is going to call at the point when we have decision to make. Most likely result is that guy behind will fold. But regardless where are you getting that we need 50 percent equity for high to justify a call?

this forum has made me start using the odds oracle

part 1: how often does at least one player in the hand have the nut low, given a range between the top 20-50% hands

answer: 14-19.2% (the odds of having the nut low decrease as the range tightens)



part 2:

there are up to 21 turn cards that could cost us the pot (assuming we are ahead) generally it is going to be less cards than that because if villains don't have the wheel they are likely to have part of it

how often does at least 1 of these players have the spade draw given the same ranges: 44-48.5%

potential trouble cards
333, 555, 678, JJJ, QQQ, KKK, AAA possible trouble cards


should we see a river?

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

434,174 trials (Randomized)

board: a2t4

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
thtd9c5s	37.69%	63,639	263,637	0	0	0
20%	31.10%	59,798	82,281	5,366	157,756	22,703
20%	31.21%	60,191	82,890	5,366	157,818	22,703

from an equity standpoint alone it looks like a clear call - but what about reverse implied odds?

it looks like we stand to risk another $2-4 (i am probably folding to 3bets on most textures) on the river to defend our share of what will start as a $13 pot on the river

even though we can expect villains to play better than us on the river it looks like we should have requisite equity to call 1-2 bets against the 20% range constructed.. we may not even feel obligated to call a single bet on certain cards given our hand-reading abilities




one last thing: this looks like a good flop for us to try and check-raise rather than lead - if it checks through and we end up throwing it away on the turn it is unlikely to be that big of a deal.. as the above turn illustrates we will have enough difficult decisions on the turn all ready that we are unlikely to lose a lot of equity

Considering Hero's hand and this flop, I think at least one of seven opponents will have been dealt 35XX roughly 40%. Any one particular opponent figures to have been dealt 35XX (or 335X or 355X) roughly 11160/148995 or about 7.5%, but you can't just multiply that 7.5% by the number of players, 7, and get the right answer. The last time I did a problem like this one rigorously, it took me hours and hours and there were lots of places to make an error. I used an approximation method to get the roughly 40% and that's close enough for me. We don't know whether or not anyone would be seeing the flop and turn with 35XX anyhow.

I didn't understand what you meant by this.


Four opponents saw the turn. I guess you're asking how often at least one of four opponents would have a flush draw. I can simulate that.

When Hero has one blocking card in the flush draw suit and there are two cards to a flush after the turn,
~21.6% - 1 opponent with random cards has a flush draw
~39.9% - at least one of 2 opponents with random cards has a flush draw
~54.9% - at least one of 3 opponents with random cards has a flush draw
~66.5% - at least one of 4 opponents with random cards has a flush draw
~76.5% - at least one of 5 opponents with random cards has a flush draw

That's as simulated, 100,000 runs for each using Wilson. There would be some variance in the third digits (maybe the second) if I ran those sims again. But that's not saying anyone would be drawing to a baby flush or any flush. In addition, real opponents aren't playing random cards and probably tend to play suited and double suited hands more than rainbows.

But I think probably at least one opponent here has a flush draw most (over half) of the time.

If it costs us 2 big bets to see the showdown, we figure to win 3.25 big bets when we win half of the pot (plus we get our own 2 bet investment back). As simulated we win high 88% if the board pairs on the river and we lose high about 12% when the board pairs on the river. And we win high with trips 52% and lose high with trips 48%.

Thus we figure to win 6.4*.88+6.4*.52=+8.96 (subtotal)
while we figure to lose -4*.12-4*.48=-2.4 (subtotal).

+8.96-2.4=+6.56 net by continuing to showdown.

(It's a mistake for Hero to fold to the bet on the turn).

Buzz