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Originally Posted by SnowOcean
Playing the other night on a crazy table. Took a couple bad beats and ran into this gem while on tilt:
Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com
Hero (BTN): $3.88
SB: $9.95
BB: $1.26
UTG: $13.10
MP: $3.16
CO: $10.74
Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with J  Q  Q  9 
UTG calls $0.05, MP calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.05, 1 fold, BB raises to $0.27, UTG calls $0.22, MP calls $0.22, Hero calls $0.22
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It's hard to know what people at this level are playing. (There's less logic involved than at higher levels). If we give one opponent a hand in the top quarter, a second opponent a hand in the top half, and a third opponent a hand in the top three quarters:
http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...5&h4=25%25&h5=
Hero with J

Q

Q

9

has roughly the same pot equity as any of the three opponents. To me, that looks very much like a fair gamble. Hero, with about 25% equity, has about a 25% chance of ending up with the winning hand. Meanwhile, because of the money already in the pot Hero is getting slightly better than the required 3 to 1 pot odds. (However, those pot odds are very deceptive since the betting is not over). Although I'd prefer to see the flop as cheaply as possible with this starting hand, it would honestly be difficult for me not to call the raise.
Then against these same opponents, before there is any action on the flop, it looks like Hero has lept to a huge advantage.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...5&h4=25%25&h5=
And so, after three checks, Hero bets. Seems right to me. I'd only bet about 60% of the pot, because that is consistent with how I'd bet various other hands here, and I think it should be enough to get rid of anyone who really doesn't belong here, but who might luck out and end up outdrawing Hero, or who might end up with a low for half the pot. (Other knowledgeable posters here disagree with betting anything less than the maximum in this situation).
Hero surely has the best hand (the nuts) if the game were to stop at this point - but the jack on the flop decreases Hero's chances of winning with a full house, the two hearts make it tempting for an opponent with a flush draw, and the QJ combo makes if tempting for an opponent to draw for various straights. Hero has to bet here, in my opinion, to protect his vulnerable hand.
Hero gets one caller, who presumably has a flush draw plus maybe a straight draw plus maybe a back-door low draw. (But at this level, who knows for sure what range of cards MP holds).
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Turn: ($3.20) 8 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $2.56 all in, MP calls $1.84 all in
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If Hero had only bet 60% of the pot after the flop, then, considering MP's stack size, Hero could put MP all in for 9 to 4 pot odds rather than the more favorable 11 to 4 pot odds MP is actually getting for calling here. I don't know if that makes enough of a difference to induce MP to fold here or not. From what we can see if we double dummy the hands, MP has 6 scoop outs, 12 half pot outs (but MP doesn't know that) and 22 bricks.
By calling here, considering the actual amounts involved, Villain figures to
win
6*504+12*320/2-22*184=3024+1920-4048=+896.
By calling here, if Hero had only bet 60% of the pot after the flop, Villain
figures to win
6*465+12*242/2-22*223=2790+1452-4906=-664.
Is Villain sharp enough to know that the call on the turn is absolutely correct the way things are? Would Villain be sharp enough to know that the call on the turn would have a negative expectation if the flop bet (2nd round) had only been 60% of the flop? I don't know. I don't know how logical the players are at this level. But I can guarantee some opponents at higher levels are sharp enough to know the difference.
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River: ($6.88) 5 (2 players - 2 are all in)
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And then it turns out Villain catches one of his six scoop outs. Tough luck.
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I know I have no business playing this hand to a pre-flop raise,
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I initially thought that, but after running a number of simulations (only two of which have urls listed here) I'm not so sure. After careful consideration, it looks to me like Hero
should call the pre-flop raise.
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but how terrible is villains play?
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It's not terrible at all.
I don't know what his considerations were on the earlier betting rounds. He was absolutely correct to call the turn bet.
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His play seems plain crazy to me, but I seem to run into this stuff a lot......just not sure if I am missing something or of its just the micro stakes play.
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I think some of both.
Just my opinion.
Buzz