This hand is from a few months ago. It was an extremely tough spot, and I'm curious whether I misplayed it or not. WSOP Circuit LO8 event, final 20 players. Stack sizes off memory, but approximately correct.

Hero has been mostly tight (late 20s), UTG TAG (40s), BTN recently became very vocal as his stack size grew, joking and betting a lot (mid 20s)

7 Handed, 4k/8k Betting round

UTG 104k
UTG+1 50k
UTG+2 55k
BTN 132k
Hero 78k
BB 40k

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7 5 3 A
UTG raise, Fold, Fold, BTN Call, Hero 3B, BB Fold, UTG Call, BTN Call

Flop: 2 K K (50k Pot)
Hero check, UTG bet, BTN call, Hero 2B, UTG 3B, BTN Call, Hero 4B, UTG 5B, BTN call, Hero call

Turn: A (110k Pot)
Hero check, UTG bet, BTN call, Hero Call

River: 3 (134k Pot)
Hero check, UTG bet, BTN raise, Hero ??

Possible sandwich spot. I've put in 40k of my 78k I started with, and betting is 8k a pop so could potentially cost all of remaining stack (cap 5B = 40K).

I like the turn, I prefer a call preflop, and the flop is spew.

Looks like a fold to me, btn's raise on the river should be a better low, otherwise calling the turn would be strange

4b the flop is megaspew (I'm not really a big fan of initial cr either)

I'm gonna run a few sims here but think the state of the tournament also favors more conservative lines in this spot

There were 3 tables, 6, 7, 7 players. Our table had the most chips. Payouts jumped a little at 18, 12, 9 I believe, but of course final table was where the significant money came in. I was for sure above average before the hand, and button was near, if not, chip leader.

do you think the preflop contributions you describe in your hh sum to "50K pot"?

do think your A7 wins High at showdown?
what probability do you assign as reasonable.

do you think 3betting is going to provoke both or either player to lay down a better 1 way hand (either a better high with a worse low, or a better low with a worse high)?
what probabilities do you assign as reasonable.


do you think you have the best low at least 28% of the time?
what probability do you assign as reasonable.

Is there such a thing as an extremely tough spot in limit poker?

Preflop is a huge call rather than 3b. You don't mind at all if the BB continues and tying yourself to the pot by making it huge isn't the best idea with a hand whose equity shifts so much based on the board and doesn't play amazing hot-and-cold.
Flop is just a disaster. Just see the turn for 1 bet
Turn is good.
River is obviously a frustrating/scary spot. I honestly don't know what to do. This spot would be much easier if you hadn't made the pot massive earlier...

Sure. This comment betrays a misunderstanding.

You still should have about the same number of marginal situations. They're just in different places.

Eg river: Villain bets, Hero?? For now let's disregard that we might raise. Depending on the variation, bet size might be 2/3 pot (NL, PL) or 1/8 pot (limit). But either way we can face a tough decision with part of our range and an easy decision with other parts.

Maybe we decide that AK high is good 1/9 of the time. In limit we have a tough decision but in NL we have an easy fold.

Or maybe we decide that 77 pocket pair above third pair is good 28% of the time. Limit, easy call. NL marginal.

Obviously I'm simplifying a lot-different betting ranges by Villain in the different games-but hope my point is clear.



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OP: rather than just accept flop play is bad (it is), it behooves you to think about what was wrong in your thought patterns. Did you think an opponent's king was very unlikely?

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In response to some questions:

Keep in mind this doesn't play like a cash game at this point with how large the betting is compared to stack sizes and the inability to buy more chips. That makes players a lot more likely to fold against good pot odds. It also makes spew a lot more costly.

Yes, flop seems to be 40k, not 50k. 3B, 3 players = 36K + BB = 40k. Also, we WERE 7 handed, I just left out one guy...let's say he was around 40K-60 as that's where the majority were.

Preflop
Yes, I suppose in some way I figured getting out the BB was a benefit (but probably isn't in actuality), but I in no way expected the other 2 to fold. I mostly did it to mix it up so I didn't always have A2 or AA when I 3B. I also could pick up a little info if I got 4B, and really didnt mind if it happened as I feel this hand plays pretty strong short handed.

Flop
It seems pretty well agreed that my flop play was terrible. Here is my reasoning for what it's worth:

The pot was rather large, and I really just wanted to be sure he had the K. I don't believe you can automatically give credit for a K against first raise on this dry of a board as it can quickly become an easy one to steal if the turn comes bad. I had a possibly good flush draw and the backdoor flush/nut low, so I decided to test if he was for real. If he flats my c-r I would lead out virtually any turn since I either pick up a low draw or the low bricks and gets anyone pretending on the flop out (while I've been repping the K).

UTG could also have had AA (which I believe to be foldable at these stack sizes if I show aggression), but after 5B I knew it was most certainly the K (so some value was gained from 4B, though probably not enough). I also figured K2 was not overly likely, though thinking about it now if he raised UTG he either had AK-low-low or some connected high cards (assuming he has a K in hand).

I think in hindsight my c-r getting 3 bet was enough info for this conclusion, and the 4B was just throwing 2 bets away and bloating the pot.

Turn
Obvious.

River
Of course this is a huge decision considering I was between 2 players and could have to put in my whole stack. High pot I am very confident is a full house from UTG and I view as < 5% (nearly 0) I am taking that. He's not leading out against 2 likely low draws unless he somehow has a wheel, or (most deifinitely) has a boat.

I don't believe BTN is raising with a boat. A weak king on the flop might make sense, but with the A on the turn, he's slowing down with anything but AK against UTG's aggression.

Low pot is my only play, and I think BTN's play was not likely to be a 45 unless he had something else to go with it and stumbled into the wheel. He will only raise with 45 or in an attempt to get me to fold. We both know we aren't getting the high hand. Would he try to get me to fold with a 7 low? I doubt it...seems like a calling hand. 6 low? Also calling, and quite greedy to raise for value with it. There is a nonzero chance UTG has a 5 or 6 low, but he's already using 2 cards for the boat, so a pretty small chance.

Result

Btn's raise is a good play if he is a pro (and can afford losing the chips which he can), also because the odds of utg having any low with his ak is low

It's still pretty hard to justify a call considering utg can still have ak with a low

45,46,47, 56
57
48, 58, 68, 78

Btn might not raise 47
Hero can also consider calling 2 / folding for more strategies but they require nuanced reads

Let's say UTG raises with any top 30% hand and BTN calls the double bet with any top 50% hand.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
7h5hAc3c	36.20%	121,375	183,318	18,299	154,389	53,381
30%	33.21%	126,126	197,794	17,187	55,573	41,607
50%	30.59%	118,527	193,957	14,989	41,405	26,689

I guess Hero's 36.2% equity means the equivalent of winning the whole pot 36.2% and losing the other 63.8%. When Hero wins the whole pot, he wins 2 bets, one from each opponent. When Hero loses, he loses 1 bet. If that is correct, then
2bets*0.362-1bet*0.638=+0.086bet.

Thus Hero can expect to average earning a small profit by introducing fresh money into the pot here. There are some other advantages to raising here, and also some disadvantages. Anyhow, Hero raises. (Shrug).

Let's run that sim again, but this time we'll include this flop:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 2KK

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
7h5hAc3c	40.34%	195,920	217,166	9,492	90,737	30,840
30%	31.54%	158,208	192,315	12,733	9,435	21,595
50%	28.12%	143,084	174,436	10,245	7,163	12,460

Looks like Hero is even further ahead than before the flop... that is, his equity seems to have increased.

When Hero bets this flop, I think of it as Hero more or less representing a king. (Otherwise in my mind Hero is bluffing or semi-bluffing).

Oops! Does UTG three bet with a 30% hand and does BTN call with a 50% hand after Hero more or less represents a kind? (I don't think so).

We have to reassess their hands. (WSOP Circuit LO8 event, final 20 players.) I suppose you never know for sure, but neither one should be drawing for a backdoor low.

It looks a lot like at least one of them has a king. Maybe they both do. Let's see...

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 2KK

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
7h5hAc3c	27.29%	110,176	116,695	1,044	119,089	18,473
K***	65.08%	336,400	438,417	3,918	2,928	4,081
50%	7.62%	31,093	40,262	4,310	10,351	15,189

And Hero's equity drops to 22.7% if they both have kings!

2bets*0.2729-1bet*0.7271=-0.1813bet.
2bets*0.227-1bet*0.773=-0.319bet.

So by making it two bets here, if one or both opponents have a king, then Hero should expect to lose.

[quote] Hero 4B,[quote]Seems unwise.

OK. (Hero's getting better than 12 to 1 to call... could be they're both drawing to trip kings... or maybe one of them picks up a low draw here).

I'd make it three bets. Neither one should be playing for low, and by making it 3 bets, you might get a 7432A, 6532A, or even a 6432A non-nut low to fold here.

(5432A is nuts for low. you have 7532A).

I have not yet read the other comments.

Buzz

Buzz, that number analysis is fascinating. The 4B is a huge loser!

Ah, I hadn't thought of this, but the raise does seem a better play than calling. I would get capped by the nut low anyway and highly doubt I would have call/folded.

Hero has to respect the UTG raise, and button call. We are looking for the flush draw and a low draw on flop specifically with a deuce flopping. We totally whiff, but have the sucker flush draw on a paired board. I would just call pre flop, maybe take a stab at it on the flop and then fold to a 3 bet. As played we just basically tie ourselves into a drawing dead situation. Villians range murder us, AA2+, A2K+, A22+ A34+,2345, AQ45,etc. We are smoked both ways, we are the monkey in the middle just throwing good money after bad and also making the backdoor low draw, that we don't have, better odds to draw for it . Not the hand I want to make my stand with in this tourney. Better luck next time

30% and 50% are absurd ranges