OH I WAS TRYING TO FIGURE THAT OUT
CHEERS

hows the traffic at the moment in these? Im still in the US... cant check it!

Terrible. Even peak times very little 15s running and a few 7s. 3.5s still have good traffic thou, but they are lame.

Why can you only register for one of these at a time at any given level?

Thats just how it is

So, I think I made the right fold, given the shortstack and that I'm relatively deep myself... But I'm interested in hearing how others would have played this hand.

The villain who essentially shoved is a spewy and just horrible russian fish.

allin!

But we're on the bubble... And we have a lot of play left...

This is probably pretty close icm wise if villain is exploiting hard. In game I could make either decision. I will run the maths latter when I get back from work. If I play id stop and go on all flops.

gii and win it ffs

The 18mans seem to have a very flat payout structure unlike MTTs, so wouldn't that mean taking risks to go for the 1st place becomes less optimal? If the villains range is almost any 4 cards you have about 65% equity perhaps? I have to say, that does look like folding is the best line on the bubble when someone has 3BBs....but not sure I'd be able to make the fold lol

My gut instinct was that folding this is a pretty big mistake

But I ran the maths and got calling to be worse than a $3 loss which is obviously pretty massive.

I gave villain a 50% range for this.

Anyone else want to verify? I did it pretty fast.....

interesting hand.
its a fold for me 90% of the time but there are people i would push that allin.
against guys like juicy its a instant allin.

Are you saying that Juicy shoves wider than a "horrible, spewy, Russian fish?"

Not that you're wrong, just wondering.

We love ya Juicy!

It's an obvious ICM mistake, but a leak I have a hard time plugging.
Depends on table dynamics a bit too, probably, as far as my decision, but I would def tend to call, in part for meta-game reasons.

I did it against a 50% range and having not done one for months it took me about 40 mins!!

The answer I got was -$3.809. This is actually not as close as I thought it would be. I like to convert these answers to % of the prize pool (to obviously take into consideration the buy in) and it was -1.52%.

I would be interested what range would make it a call, but as Mandy implies, most 18 man nits are never shoving that wide.

With the maths, I believe hero made even more of a solid fold than initially thought. WP Gutt.

Yah. I was thinking it would be much less of a mistake than that - and one that could prob be overcome by outplaying the fish deep afterwards.

However -1.5% is gonna take some serious making up and could well be too heavy.

gg

He says the loose aggro big stack opens to 8BBs (2,400) which is more than half of the heros remaining chips. Basically nullifying perceived post flop edges I would think. So many people probably just swear and call in this spot, so it is interesting to see how much of a significant ICM mistake it would be. Perhaps if the hand were double suited it might alter the situation somewhat.

Had this hand from an 18man just now. Really didn't think opponents line made any sense at all. Surprised he turned JJ into a bluff when he maybe had enough showdown value to check? It turns out my general feeling that he was light was correct but that doesn't necessarily mean it was the right decision of course. Any thoughts appreciated.

unless villain is a very competent player, I would be very conservative with such hero calls. I've seen it multiple times that they do not check mediocre hands to get a cheap showdown, but instead try to bluff you off a hand.

Perhaps my mistake was in thinking he'd check back hands that have showdown value but aren't good enough to value bet, because its what I'd probably do. He is a profitable player but not one of the best from what I can gather.
With hindsight I guess if he had QQxx or 22XX he could feasibly take a similar line. It just looked to me like he checked because he missed the flop, then picks up the nut low draw and bets because he now has some equity to semi bluff with and I've checked twice so he should be able to take it down by betting. Then the river shove just looks like an extension of this. But maybe my hand is too light to call even though his hand is exactly what it looks like in terms of an A3.
Thanks for the input

I don't think villain's line makes a lot of sense, but not crazy about yours either:

PF- fine with a min-raise here, although could be played differently
Flop- as you were PF raiser and it's high board, why not bet here instead of...
Turn- what are you trying to accomplish with this bet? there aren't a lot of river cards that will really help you and you're OOP, so this middling bet OTT is a bit puzzling
River- might be a spot to make a bluff bet for less than pot, given that you have blockers to str8 and some showdown value... if he raises, it seems like an easy fold

just wanted to say how is this stupid? you dont think people that are playing 10/20 tables at a time need a break to get a drink or take a piss?

It's stupid because the breaks are inconsistent across game types.

So if you are mixing games (which anyone 20 tabling o8 pretty much has to be) then you get loads of breaks that you can't use because your only on a break on some of your tables

Except he plays 10-20 tables.

I don't see why you would want to call that bet on the river. I think after you bet the turn and got called, you had to be suspicious that villain might have some sort of high hand as well as a draw.

Checking the river might make villain try to steal with a busted draw but you have to be brave to call there and trust that read. If you are going to hero call you are going to get it wrong sometimes. I think if you wanted to steal that pot you should have half-pot or shoved the river instead - it's hard for villain to call without at least 2 pair with a Q and/or K.