did you realize that there is a guy with 1bb?... if I fold and the blinds goes thru over me, I'll be with $1.800 and prey to get itm... I don't know if that's and alternative or not and maybe I posted the hand 'cause I was on tilt last night xD

In fact, on the flop I got 90% of equity so it was another badbeat.

Calling $600 to see a flop isn't that bad but ur missing some value with this hand 'cause you're going to be faced the most of the time only versus the openraiser, that 4bet isn't common so I think that you've to 3bet a run often on that spot.

Ya i seen the guy on the 1 BB alright but if your giving up hands like this and he manages to survive his round of blinds you'll be getting into trouble and maay end up pushing worse with lower chips..
just my thoughts..

totally agree.. that's why I did it like that but I was wondering if there's any other way.

ty

I'd have just shoved it preflop. Yes, we are better against them. However there is a guy with 1,5BB, so in this situation winning the blinds that are already huge, would be fine enough. And by shoving you may have a slightly bigger FE.

is it good to call here?

I would. On the SB they probably opened their shove range a bit to steal the blind. Most likely they have an Ace but you have the top end covered pretty well along with a flush. Why not.

what roi do people have in these things at 6.50 level?

disagree there. 3handed with a pay structure where 4-3-2-1 differences are all the same im sure he doesnt do that light. BTN has 3.9BB and will be in the Big Blinds after this.

I might even fold but it really depends on reads and stuff. If i see the BTN folding to death i might fold to attack his BB after that and 1 round later attack the other guy ( where shortie will be in the SB and most likely fold, because he hopes to get 2nd somehow ). The 2nd biggest stack will have to fold most hands too and we take 2 in a row.

But yea, if the SB is agressive overall i'd call but wouldnt really like it anyway since: yea we can bust a guy here and get HU with a huge chip lead, but the range im putting him on there beats us slightly and i would hate to double him up and then be sitting in the SB feeling i can't fold to the BB and stack that guy up ( if BTN folds next round ).

The more i think of it, the more i'd fold.

call. go big or go home :x

I snap call here and dont think twice.

guys can't u come up with some reasons for calling? That would make a little more sense to be able to discuss a hand.

"Call big or go home": Totaly agree in a format where payout structure is

50% - 30% - 20%

but as we know its 40%-30%-20%-10%

so it's a whole different situation. Our first goal is to make it HU, our second is to win it.

at 50-30-20 its the other way around


"i snap call here and don't think twice"

hmm, very good song when i was a little younger and dancing tight with some school girls, but u shouldn't take this process into poker at all

haha yea weak reply I know. Basically I think with the blinds at 300/600, and this being a turbo, we are doing very well vs his range.

I dont know if the equivalent of icm exists for nlo8 sngs but if it does then i guess it comes down to how were defining sbs range.

I would call it definitely. I think, in HU, this hand does very well.

zuri1886: according to propokertools, even against (A2)(K3) we have 43,3% equity.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
As Kc Qc 3d	43.29%	205,000	348,573	388,617	0	199,480
Ah 2h Ks 3s	56.71%	224,696	348,818	388,617	378,944	199,480

But against hands A23H - we are already ahead. Mainly flip, but our equity vs those hands slightly better. And hands like A2TJ or A2HH where H is not a king, we are always ahead. And a hand like A2JJ 49-51. So the only hand we need to be afraid of, is AAxx.

Yea and AA is the only thing i can put him on without reads. No way he would risk busting to win so little chips if the Ultra Shortstack will be in the BB the very next hand.

My point here is: even if we are fliping, yes even if we have 55%, do we really want to risk calling of more then half our stack in this situation?

I know a lot of poker players are very optimistic ( profitable games ) BUT: what if we lose anyway?

we would put ourselves in a bad spot. If we get dealt Q933 the very next hand after losing this one and the button folds, what do we do?
give the BB a walk? That would put us in serious danger winning only $54 instead of at least $81 or $108.

Nothing really happens if we fold. we are still easily chip leader and just passed the BBto the shortstack. If we fold and the button folds the next hand we can easy shove against the shortie since even if we lose there won't be too much damage ( u could even say, it's not too bad because we can now push them both around and they might wait each other out to bust ).

Every scenario i think of if we call and lose seems terrible. Every scenario if we fold seems fine to me. Of course this is turbo and usually these hands 3 handed are good, but in this particular situation, icm just comes into play.

Say we call and win:

$108 pretty damn sure, but u never know right.

I put the number ( icm counts ) to like $105 that we should win.

say we call and lose:

the other guy is a massive chip leader so just going after the % we have the biggest chance to get $81 and a little smaller chance to get $54, but the smalles chance to get $108. So our % is somewhere between 81-54, closer to 81 but if i have to pick a number say we are at about $72.

Say we fold:

We are still in the chip lead and the shortstack will probably go all in with any 4 from the BB, since the guy with 2nd in chips just got some more. So he is likely to drop out the very next hand. but just look at it right after we fold and simply keep in mind that $54 is not really an option anyway.

We are somewhere between $108 and $81 way closer to $108, so let's pick $99 ( according to the chips we have and the chips we have in play ).

so we have $105, $99 or $72

$105+$72/2 = $88.5 if we call and say we have a flip ( thats why /2 )

OR $99 if we fold.

don't blame me for all the numbers since i just counted them out in my head in 1 min, but i guess they should be close.

so if someone is saying: " GO FOR IT ", he should mean fold since we expect to win more money that way

I hope even after a long grind i could at least show my point of view.

Oh: and plz don't call me a nit for folding a hand that looks so good 3 handed. As i said: in a 50-30-20 structure its and easy call, since we need to go for the win and so does the SB who will have a wider shoving range because of that.

good night all

ummmmm now my head hurts. Very good points made their zuri. What I find myself doing a lot on 2+2 is reading the hand and I say shove but then I find myself in a similar situation during a tourney and I fold.

After really thinking about this it, as always it comes down to your reads. With the sb making the move I think I am folding. Maybe he is trying to steal the blind or maybe he has AAxx. Why would he risk all of his chips with a short stack on the table? I think its pretty safe to say he has a strong hand.

btw I think its funny that we are discussing this hand when the OP probably hasn't been back to this thread.

Basically zuri i think you make some good points if were in a vacuum. If we are folding akq3 then sb can start pushing really wide, and i think sb is doing that. Therefore we gotta open up a bit here.

I havent thought much about the flat payout structure in these though and how that affects things.

Im sitting here in front of my computer once again being bored and thinking about how to get myself motivated again for a huge grind.
Feeling kinda burned out, but since i don't feel like a quitter i came up with an idea:

Im challenging myself and share this with u guys so i keep focused on my goals. So here it goes:

i will try to make 5k profit within 1 month playing exclusivly 1.75/3.40/6.50 NLO8 18 man SNG's on stars.
Here are some numbers: if i could sustain a 20% roi with an average buy in of 3 Dollars it would take me 8334 sngs to play or 278/day.
This seems like hell of a lot and if i play that many tables im not sure about how much the roi will drop. Boku87 was playing like 400 sngs a day
( sometimes 300 sometimes 500 ) and everybody went WOW, sick! Since he was playing NLHE and mainly 45 man and also 180 man my 278 scare myself a little T.B.H. but wtf, give it a shot!
Im not sure if its even possible since traffic is obv waaay slower then it is at NLHE, but yea as i said: wtf?!

The reason i post it in here is a) dont want the whole world to know about my challenge since i don't take myself THAT serious and b) didn't want to open a new thread for the same reasons.
mods: feel free to do whatever u wanna do with that post

Fellow Omaha8 buddies: feel free to call me a clueless idiot aiming to high or whatever u wish. i hope there is some interest in me updating once in a while.

cheers!

gl züri
5k is a sick grind
2k would have been wow allready,but gl to u.
(good thing is u wont be in the 9 man ko for a while )

Zuri, good luck with your challenge, should be an absolute grind. At least you'll be on supernova pace. :P

btw, whats the max # of tables you are comfortable playing and what happens if you go over this cap? You pretty much have to register to every single SNG to hit this huge volume.

wow, thats a plan! gl Züri!

gl zuri, see ya at the tables.

Thanks guys, that really helps to get my motivation level up. Im a little sick at the moment, but will start a first session anyway pretty soon.

Im comfortable playing around 30-40 tables maybe even a little more. The thing is, that since unlike in boku's challenge, the payout structure is flat in my sng's so my roi will drop with that many tables, since i have to pay a lot attention to stack sizes and so on at late stages of the sngs.
He could just play very agressive to go for first.

Maybe i will adjust my game a little and play pretty fast forward, maybe i will add tables or play a little less. Time will show what's best i hope

@manndl: yea thinking about it, 2k is damn high as well but i know myself. If i aim for 2k i will get tired at 1.2k, if i aim for 5 i might get way higher

gl, i could never imagine playing that many tables at aq time, 15-20 is about my limit

ok guys, just put in the first fiew hours.
I can just say: the traffic sucks bigtime even at peak times ( i remember this being a little better? ).
so basically what happened was i registered for every single sng during every 4-5 hour session. And i was stuck at like 25 tables, sometimes got it to 30 but that was it. Kinda not what i was hoping for.

Performance so far:

the very first $6 i was dealt AA24ds, i though wheee nice start. guy raises to 180 (?!?) i shove right away and as expected he called. He held ATT5. board 23QQ4 and bye bye me.

at the end of my first session i felt like the doomswitch was on especially in the $6 ones, so i pretty much hated the start.

i played 97 sngs in that session and was even scared to see how much i'd see in the cashier. well i was + 12.15
+ ?!? oh well, don't really know how i can run this bad and still win, but i take it along with the 200VPP of course as well.

So i went for dinner and took a 45min break to regroup. After that i was fully energized to get back to the tables. This time they even started slower

Well my session could not have been any worse:
i ran suuuuper bad in the $6. Didnt cash in the last 15 i played i believe. Mainly we got to like 7-6 or 5 handed and i had a top 5% starting hand went all in and got called by a lot worse..AND lost. everytime. Not need to say i got pretty disgusted. But im happy in a way since i didnt tilt and tried to play proper poker in the $3/$1 ones, which worked out well.

i just had to stop registering at some point because im sick allready and pokerstars didnt really help me either to feel better

so session 2 went:

57 sngs with a profit of -18.65

so overall:

154sngs
$ - 6.50 ( exactly 1 buy in lol )
295.08 VPP earned

i better start to run good in the $6.50 ones at some point or i'll have no shot at all to finish my challenge in shorter then 1 year time

I guess u're only a real warrior if u got beat but manage to stand back up again. So im gonna take another break and decide if i put in a 3rd session.

please dont knock me out in the 3s while you are on your challenge .