Quote:
Originally Posted by Angribob
Can we talk about this?
My gut says its wrong (no offence nice guy) but if you can show me the maths I might change my mind
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllInNTheDark
We can't assume a top 10% hand wasn't already folded due to ICM.
Even if we do assume that any top 10% hand would be played, I believe the conditional (Bayesian?) probability would still put the odds of villain holding such a hand at significantly less than 37%.
no offense taken, none whatsoever.
Sorry, i didn't respond sooner, I just don't look at this thread very often.
I arrived at the 37% figure using the PQL function of PPT. the function i used was "inrange" which allows you to specify how often specific cards or specific ranges occur within a specific range. here, that is how often does 10% occur within random.
here's the approx. PQL query i used:
select
histogram(handshaving(inrange,'10%')),
count(handshaving(inrange,'10%')=1),
count(handshaving(inrange,'10%')>=1),
count(inrange(p5,'10%'))
from game='omaha8',
hero='4sQhKd9h', p2='*', p3='*', p4='*', p5='*'
so with knowledge of hero's cards and assigning a random range for each of the villian's hands, we can see a graph of how often a top 10% hand is dealt,
how often exactly 1 player is dealt a top 10% hand, how often more then 1 player is dealt a top 10% hand, and i threw in how often 1 specific player is dealt a top 10% hand.
the results are:
exactly 1 player is dealt a top 10% 34%
more than 1 player is dealt a top 10% 38.6%
and the specific player is dealt a top 10% 10.8% of the time.
i used 37% because that was either the answer for more then 1 player then or i ran it such that i excluded the rare times when 3 or all 4 have top 10% which does looks to be about 1%.
unfortunately i can't supply the Math.
i think its true we can't 'know' that one of the players that acted earlier didn't fold the 'dealt top 10% hand', but i did include this possibility when i posted as an assumption that they wouldn't, and the sim data and using 37% does allow for the occasional fold as the 37% represents 1 or 2 players being dealt a top 10% hand.