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Old 05-12-2017, 04:39 PM   #1
jdr0317
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Trivial O8 hand checkup: Nut high v most passive dude ever ($15/$30 LO8)

Live 15-30 mix game.

Hundreds of hours of history w/ main villain in this hand (albeit mostly in hold 'em), and he's pretty much the poster boy of loose passive. Literally have never seen him three bet preflop (an even more curious thing given my holding). Misses gobs of value on the river, as well. FWIW, it's the last hand of the night.

BB is a very loose reg. I've seen him call 3 bets out of the blinds w/ trash like KT98 w/ a suit. Is pretty much a lock to see a flop w/ any pocket pair, any connected hand, 4 low cards, any A2, etc.

I have AA76

Action:

I open HJ, villain 3 bets BTN, BB calls 2 cold, I cap (?), they call

Flop (12.67 sb): A82

BB checks, I bet, BTN raises, BB folds...action is on me.

Can I ever put another raise in here, or am I getting freerolled on the low too often? Obviously I have some hands in jail, like AK32, A223, that he could reasonably have, that I'd like to get more value from.
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Old 05-12-2017, 06:48 PM   #2
ngFTW
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Re: Trivial O8 hand checkup: Nut high v most passive dude ever

with the action back to you, at the point of the question, putting a raise in now will x% cost you 1 sb and (1-X)% --when BTN caps and you call-- cost you 2 small bets.

if BTN never folds to a raise, then
when you split 50/50 these extra bets get returned and cost/gain nothing
when you scoop you when the extra bets.
when btn scoops you lose the extra bets.
when the pot is split 25/75 the one who gets quartered loses half his extra bets and the other wins them.

therefore the immediate question is do you suppose you will scoop more often then you are scooped?



i ran some simulations to arrive at some data for you, i used rather general assumptions (which are specified) for preflop range and continuing range.


if we say that BTN continues with all flopped made lows (every made low on the flop is equal to or better then hero's), flopped sets, flopped top2pair with a 3 or a 4,
then


if BTN's preflop range was PPT top 15%,
44.75% of range continues.
only 12.25% of continuing range has greater then 50% equity on the flop.
the showdown outcomes vs. the continuing range are
hero scoops 20.5%, hero 75/25 2.3%, split 50/50 64.4%, hero 25/75 .1% and btn scoops 10.65%.


if BTN's preflop range was PPT top 25%
55.75% of range continues
only 27.2% of continuing range has greater then 50% equity on the flop.
the showdown outcomes vs. the continuing range are
hero scoops 16.1%, hero 75/25 3.1%, split 50/50 68.3%, hero 25/75 .2% and btn scoops 12.4%.


if BTN's preflop range was PPT top 35%,
58.85% of range continues.
only 31.6% of continuing range has greater then 50% equity on the flop.
the showdown outcomes vs. the continuing range are
hero scoops 14%, hero 75/25 3.6%, split 50/50 69.3%, hero 25/75 .36% and btn scoops 12.7%.


if BTN's preflop range was PPT top 45%
62.2% of range continues
only 31% of continuing range has greater then 50% equity on the flop
the showdown outcomes vs. the continuing range are
hero scoops 13.3%, hero 75/25 4.1%, split 50/50 69.6%, hero 25/75 .4% and btn scoops 12.6%.




***** with regard to another post in another thread, I enjoy PPT especially PQL where these posts keep me in query-writing practice, BUT I DID NOT develop PPT. IIRC the creator of ProPokerTools used to post under the name Bachfan.*****
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Old 05-12-2017, 06:57 PM   #3
etm.
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Re: Trivial O8 hand checkup: Nut high v most passive dude ever

Seems like he's going to be weighted to a ton of A2 combos with his 3bet pre and he should probably just call with nut low on the flop given description so I'd 3bet here.
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Old 05-12-2017, 06:59 PM   #4
Smarty 2.0
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Re: Trivial O8 hand checkup: Nut high v most passive dude ever

I wouldn't cap pre as your low potential sucks multiway.

Raising flop here multiway and only slowing down on wheel turn
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Old 05-15-2017, 06:53 AM   #5
RichGangi
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Re: Trivial O8 hand checkup: Nut high v most passive dude ever ($15/$30 LO8)

^
Yup.
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Old 05-15-2017, 01:09 PM   #6
cfreaks
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Re: Trivial O8 hand checkup: Nut high v most passive dude ever ($15/$30 LO8)

Think about what kind of hands a loose passive player will 3 bet you with pre when you have never seen him do it before.

Aces? - well he cant have that now
A234? - Ask the Nits here, no high value lol
A23K, A23Q - maybe
A2KK, A3KK, A2QQ, etc - I would think these are the most likely

You are the one freerolling on all of these hands other than a back door flush possibility, unless a loose passive is 3 betting you with A345.

And cap it preflop all day with this hand
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Old 05-15-2017, 04:55 PM   #7
jdr0317
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Re: Trivial O8 hand checkup: Nut high v most passive dude ever ($15/$30 LO8)

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichGangi View Post
^
Yup.
Does the fact that BB is coming in with hands like KQT9, 8764, AJJ6, etc, tilt things at all? PPT is unfortunately down, but I seem to have ~ 36% eq; no use in punishing BB early?
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Old 05-15-2017, 04:58 PM   #8
jdr0317
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Re: Trivial O8 hand checkup: Nut high v most passive dude ever ($15/$30 LO8)

Quote:
Originally Posted by cfreaks View Post
Think about what kind of hands a loose passive player will 3 bet you with pre when you have never seen him do it before.

Aces? - well he cant have that now
A234? - Ask the Nits here, no high value lol
A23K, A23Q - maybe
A2KK, A3KK, A2QQ, etc - I would think these are the most likely

You are the one freerolling on all of these hands other than a back door flush possibility, unless a loose passive is 3 betting you with A345.

And cap it preflop all day with this hand
A234 was a hand I considered.
i didn't consider A2KK/A3KK/A2QQ because it'd seem out of character for him to raise this board given this action w/ top and bottom and nothing else. Even top pair / top set blocker w/ a live 3 would be incredibly out of character.

I thought the most likely hands in his range were 34 w/ something to go with it. A432, A843, A543 (nightmare hand to be against here), 4322. Stuff like that. Occasionally he'd have something like A322 and I'd have him in terrible shape. These would have all made sense to me.

I also like my hand a little bit more given that the flop is A2 and not A3 (or especially A4).
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Old 05-15-2017, 05:33 PM   #9
RolldUpTrips
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Re: Trivial O8 hand checkup: Nut high v most passive dude ever ($15/$30 LO8)

I think your times of having him killed are much stronger than his freerolls here. His freerolls are usually gutshots at best, almost never a wheel wrap. I would raise again and slow down if any 4th low card comes (since you can't scoop vs like the A223-type hands anymore)
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Old 05-16-2017, 10:27 PM   #10
watevs
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Re: Trivial O8 hand checkup: Nut high v most passive dude ever ($15/$30 LO8)

i don't see any world where capping pre loses money. easy cap

would also keep raising flop
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Old 05-17-2017, 06:36 AM   #11
RichGangi
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Re: Trivial O8 hand checkup: Nut high v most passive dude ever ($15/$30 LO8)

Quote:
Originally Posted by watevs View Post
i don't see any world where capping pre loses money. easy cap

would also keep raising flop
Re: first part- You have really awful low potential. That's a big problem with the hand.

Agreed on second part.
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Old 05-19-2017, 04:26 PM   #12
LoosenUp
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Re: Trivial O8 hand checkup: Nut high v most passive dude ever ($15/$30 LO8)

Sorry to derail: Where spreads a 15/30 LO8 game? I might have to come out of retirement.
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Old Today, 12:33 AM   #13
prototypepariah
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Re: Trivial O8 hand checkup: Nut high v most passive dude ever ($15/$30 LO8)

Not a huge fan of capping a 1 way hand pre in that spot. Rest seems fine.

Is this a private game? Maybe one that doesn't go a ton? Curious if I know it.
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