Live 15-30 mix game.

Hundreds of hours of history w/ main villain in this hand (albeit mostly in hold 'em), and he's pretty much the poster boy of loose passive. Literally have never seen him three bet preflop (an even more curious thing given my holding). Misses gobs of value on the river, as well. FWIW, it's the last hand of the night.

BB is a very loose reg. I've seen him call 3 bets out of the blinds w/ trash like KT98 w/ a suit. Is pretty much a lock to see a flop w/ any pocket pair, any connected hand, 4 low cards, any A2, etc.

I have AA76

Action:

I open HJ, villain 3 bets BTN, BB calls 2 cold, I cap (?), they call

Flop (12.67 sb): A82

BB checks, I bet, BTN raises, BB folds...action is on me.

Can I ever put another raise in here, or am I getting freerolled on the low too often? Obviously I have some hands in jail, like AK32, A223, that he could reasonably have, that I'd like to get more value from.

with the action back to you, at the point of the question, putting a raise in now will x% cost you 1 sb and (1-X)% --when BTN caps and you call-- cost you 2 small bets.

if BTN never folds to a raise, then
when you split 50/50 these extra bets get returned and cost/gain nothing
when you scoop you when the extra bets.
when btn scoops you lose the extra bets.
when the pot is split 25/75 the one who gets quartered loses half his extra bets and the other wins them.

therefore the immediate question is do you suppose you will scoop more often then you are scooped?



i ran some simulations to arrive at some data for you, i used rather general assumptions (which are specified) for preflop range and continuing range.


if we say that BTN continues with all flopped made lows (every made low on the flop is equal to or better then hero's), flopped sets, flopped top2pair with a 3 or a 4,
then


if BTN's preflop range was PPT top 15%,
44.75% of range continues.
only 12.25% of continuing range has greater then 50% equity on the flop.
the showdown outcomes vs. the continuing range are
hero scoops 20.5%, hero 75/25 2.3%, split 50/50 64.4%, hero 25/75 .1% and btn scoops 10.65%.


if BTN's preflop range was PPT top 25%
55.75% of range continues
only 27.2% of continuing range has greater then 50% equity on the flop.
the showdown outcomes vs. the continuing range are
hero scoops 16.1%, hero 75/25 3.1%, split 50/50 68.3%, hero 25/75 .2% and btn scoops 12.4%.


if BTN's preflop range was PPT top 35%,
58.85% of range continues.
only 31.6% of continuing range has greater then 50% equity on the flop.
the showdown outcomes vs. the continuing range are
hero scoops 14%, hero 75/25 3.6%, split 50/50 69.3%, hero 25/75 .36% and btn scoops 12.7%.


if BTN's preflop range was PPT top 45%
62.2% of range continues
only 31% of continuing range has greater then 50% equity on the flop
the showdown outcomes vs. the continuing range are
hero scoops 13.3%, hero 75/25 4.1%, split 50/50 69.6%, hero 25/75 .4% and btn scoops 12.6%.




***** with regard to another post in another thread, I enjoy PPT especially PQL where these posts keep me in query-writing practice, BUT I DID NOT develop PPT. IIRC the creator of ProPokerTools used to post under the name Bachfan.*****

Seems like he's going to be weighted to a ton of A2 combos with his 3bet pre and he should probably just call with nut low on the flop given description so I'd 3bet here.

I wouldn't cap pre as your low potential sucks multiway.

Raising flop here multiway and only slowing down on wheel turn

^
Yup.

Think about what kind of hands a loose passive player will 3 bet you with pre when you have never seen him do it before.

Aces? - well he cant have that now
A234? - Ask the Nits here, no high value lol
A23K, A23Q - maybe
A2KK, A3KK, A2QQ, etc - I would think these are the most likely

You are the one freerolling on all of these hands other than a back door flush possibility, unless a loose passive is 3 betting you with A345.

And cap it preflop all day with this hand

Does the fact that BB is coming in with hands like KQT9, 8764, AJJ6, etc, tilt things at all? PPT is unfortunately down, but I seem to have ~ 36% eq; no use in punishing BB early?

A234 was a hand I considered.
i didn't consider A2KK/A3KK/A2QQ because it'd seem out of character for him to raise this board given this action w/ top and bottom and nothing else. Even top pair / top set blocker w/ a live 3 would be incredibly out of character.

I thought the most likely hands in his range were 34 w/ something to go with it. A432, A843, A543 (nightmare hand to be against here), 4322. Stuff like that. Occasionally he'd have something like A322 and I'd have him in terrible shape. These would have all made sense to me.

I also like my hand a little bit more given that the flop is A2 and not A3 (or especially A4).

I think your times of having him killed are much stronger than his freerolls here. His freerolls are usually gutshots at best, almost never a wheel wrap. I would raise again and slow down if any 4th low card comes (since you can't scoop vs like the A223-type hands anymore)

i don't see any world where capping pre loses money. easy cap

would also keep raising flop

Re: first part- You have really awful low potential. That's a big problem with the hand.

Agreed on second part.

Sorry to derail: Where spreads a 15/30 LO8 game? I might have to come out of retirement.

Not a huge fan of capping a 1 way hand pre in that spot. Rest seems fine.

Is this a private game? Maybe one that doesn't go a ton? Curious if I know it.

Not saying this is where OP was, but they have either a 15/30 or 10/20 w/HK (depends on what lineup wants that day) game at the Hollywood Casino in Aurora, IL 4-5 days a week.

Not sure about all the other comments and how others are saying you can't lose.

If he has a hand like A345, you are getting freerolled. Plus he might back into a flush.

Just because he is loose passive doesn't mean he can't flop a monster. If he is at all competent he knows AAxy is part of your range. So you have to ask why he is willing to go to war.

I feel like a nit saying this but I would not cap preflop or 3! flop.

AxAh6x7h will almost always have 1 out for sets given Villain's image, and 3way Aces are not that strong of a hand even with a suit. I would prefer re-raising the flop here vs. many solid opponents who understand the value in knocking out equity on the flop but this Villain does not strike me as that type of opponent. The fact that you have never seen him re-raise preflop in 100s of hours playing with him lead me to believe that he has a monster hand here as well such as A834ds, A345ds, A234ds, A348ds. You can maybe be against A288, A388 but the former holdings are much more likely.

I would not cap here (we are hu), also if villain does not have counterfeit protection we will often get max value going for the turn check-raise anyway

This doesn't really sound like a great spot to be that optimistic so yea

Whether we cap pre should first be decided by effective stacks (is anyone likely to overcommit due to a lower count) and second by overall game dynamic, if there are frequent 4! With non aa hands and hero has an agressive image go for it, otherwise probably flat and keep your hand more well disguised and lets you get away from ugly boards easier

Cap pre seems pretty standard given the read on the BB player. Also, the villain should know this also. It is also understood by all players that this is the last hand of the night. All this influences the way players might have altered ranges than normal.
Given all that, this unfortunately brings in the monsters like A345 into the range of the villain, that we are not expecting him to 3! Preflop. Villains mindset is:
" I have a playable hand, I want to play it correctly, so I raise in position to either knock out the BB or charge BB extra rent to see a flop". You say he is way to nitty to do this. I say people are always capable of surprises, especially when it is playing more correct. After 300 hours of poker, the villain is looser for this hand than normal.
He knows you have AA, unless he is oblivious and you did not mention him to be a bad player. I just dont see him raising flop without at least A348 in his hand. Possibly double suited as well. A345 and you are in deep trouble.
I say cap pre, bet/call flop. Idk if I could fold on a wheel turn, but that is disaster.


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Just for the record, guys, preflop 3 bettor is absolutely atrocious, like nominee for WOAT. I thought saying he was the poster boy of loose passive would communicate that .

But yeah, if this changes anyone's opinion, he's really terrible and probably doesn't understand that I've top set or the nut low a bunch on this flop. And his preflop 3 bet that I mentioned is limited to Omaha (he three bets sometimes in FL, but your JJ+ only range)

Oh, he is one of THOSE loose passives. Jam it every street he prob has A2KK or the like.


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Capping pre is easy you have a strong 2 way hand. AA wins high 67 counterfeits low sometimes creating a strong scooping hand. PLus we might make a flush and a low.

Flop comes 248 and we're in great shape.
We're free rolling on the flop. We have the nuts for high and if he does have nut low, he can be counterfeit easier than we can. I would jam this pot the whole way almost.

I'm not sure you can jam the turn ever here. Even a Loose Passive player cannot raise the flop here with a weak high and nothing better than a 6-7 low.

Out of position, I check / call this down after flop.

Any chance the OP will tell us what he actually had? Iirc we were split as to whether villian had A34x or just A2xx or even just a set and no low.


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I cannot see 88 here. With flop play, I think it can only be A234, A235, A345. Double Suited. I see no other likely.

Agreed but i think double suited is a stretch. The OP seemed to disparage the villain in general which leads me to believe it was A234.

And i say raise flop against these ranged hands for value. Most seem to say that value is too thin.


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