I apologize if I've missed this, but I didn't see an answer to my specific question anywhere in this forum.

I've recently started picking up O8. I'd like to get good at all of the games. My question is what kind of variance can I expect in one session?

I understand that I'm asking a generalized question, so in an effort to get a reasonable answer, I'll set some constraints.

One session is defined as four hours at a 4/8 limit O8 table.

Is it within the realm of "normal" to drop 10 big bets? 20 big bets? 50 big bets? I genuinely have no idea and it's a hard question to google.

I ask because my four hour session yesterday went from up $80 to down $150 and ended the session down only $40, and I have no idea if this is reasonable or not. I'd like to know what the upper bounds could (or should) be for a session.

Variance in LO8 should be lower than in LHE, but I think those results you had would not be particularly unusual for the average O8 player.

It's very hard to generalize, as so many variables come into play. Is this game played with a half-kill? Is it 9-handed or 10-handed? Is there a lot of raising preflop? How many players see the flop on average? Are you yourself loose or tight preflop?

The conventional wisdom is that the swings in Omaha are less extreme than the swings in Hold'em because you're picking up half pots and quarter pots more often. But this reasoning only applies if you're playing very tight preflop. I have seen players who play nearly every single hand they are dealt, and their swings within a single session are huge.

That said, in my experience, it's within the realm of normal for a winning or break-even player to drop 10 or 20 big bets in an hour—and it's certainly within the realm of normal to drop 40–50 big bets in a session (though my average session length is probably twice yours), especially if the table is loose and aggressive.

Many years ago Annie Duke wrote that you should never let yourself lose more than 30 big bets in a single session of LHE. So I'm conscious of that boundary, but I find it's unrealistic for loose, aggressive games. I think 40–50 big bets is a more realistic boundary for the Omaha games I play in—and I will occasionally rebuy to the point that I'm in for 60–80 big bets total.

Many of the players I play against are unwilling or unable to go anywhere near this deep. Some of them will buy in for only 6.7 big bets, and then rebuy for 3.3 big bets if they go broke (which they almost certainly will). Or maybe they'll buy in for 16.7 or 20 big bets, but when they lose that, they're done for the night. These players tend to go all in a lot, so I see a lot of side pots—and whenever I win a side pot with a second-best hand, I benefit from the fact that my opponents are under-rolled and/or don't fully understand variance in limit poker.

This sounds typical. Last weekend I played an 8-hour session of $6/$12 Omaha with a one-third kill. I bought in for $300 (25 big bets). Most players buy in for $120 or $200, but I don't like to play with a short stack. After 3 or 4 hours I was up $360 (30 big bets); after a couple more hours I had lost most of my winnings and actually topped off for another $100, so I was now in the game $400 (33.3 big bets). By the end of the session I was up $679 (56.5 big bets).

Good luck.

I will take a break and review hands if I am down 25BB. Usually its scooper full houses get rivered (b/c river) or nut-nut flops that get bricked. Massive 13BB pots that just dont go your way will happen. But if there are some stinkers in there that should have been folded pre, and made decent 2-way stuff that cost you a 4BB investment to showdown should be reason to double check your motivations for playing those hands.


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Thanks everyone! This is massively helpful.

Fwiw, it's 10-handed with a half kill.

I appear to be down a little over $50 for 25 hours of play so far. Some of it is play bad since I'm learning the ropes of a new game. Some of it is run bad (I've run into quads four times and had many nut-nut draws that just completely bricked out).

The games seem pretty soft at this limit, though. I'll keep at it and see what my win rate looks like after the first hundred hours or so.

I played the exact same game all day yesterday at Mohegan Sun Pocano and had very similar results. I don't think I was ever down more than 10bb but never really got up much either and left down about 35 bucks. Game turned to Big O as soon as it got short handed though and I can see the swings being way bigger at that.

Shouldn't there be fewer swings in Big O? I think you should play tighter. Although if the game is shorthanded that could lead to bigger swings.

Maybe your right, I just noticed I had bigger swings. It was the first time I've ever played the game though and I only played a hour or so.

In that case, you're doing better than average. If you figure the drop and tips add up to $12 to $15 per player per hour, the average player must be losing that much. So if you're losing only $2 an hour, you're beating the other players—you're just not beating them by a big enough margin to cover the drop and tips.

Running into quads four times in 25 hours is unusual. In my last 25 hours of play, I think I got beaten by quads once when I flopped the top full house, but I also made quads once when I flopped set under set.

However, the bricking out part is much more common, I'm sorry to say. You have something like A24K, and the flop comes 65J. How can you lose, right? Easy. The board pairs on the turn, your deuce gets counterfeited on the river, and your second-nut low loses to someone else's nut low.

A couple of years ago I went through a period of thinking the game should be renamed Frustration. You make the nut flush on the turn and someone makes a boat on the river. You get A234 and the flop comes QT9. You flop a set 8 times, the board never pairs, and you lose to a straight or a flush every time. You flop the nut low with the nut flush draw, your flush doesn't get there, and you end up winning a sixth of the pot when two other players also have the nut low. And so on.

A big part of success in Omaha is finding a way to take these disappointments in stride. And a big part of that is understanding that they're just part of the game, not unusual occurrences.

They are. Good plan.