Hi, this hand knocked me out of $82 knock out comp.





UTG+2 has a large bounty on his head ($130), meaning taking this player out has immediate cash prize of $65, so I think pushing with my hand after Btn 3bets and SB calls (hopefully sb will fold to Btn 5bet, which is in fact what happens). So I think my ai bet is profitable, even though my hand is probably behind Btn equity wise.

My question is - Is there a way to estimate the value of my push here?

After the hand, I ran the numbers for the actual hands and I have 33% equity, so in a 'normal' non knockout tourney this is -ev, but can I work out the actual profitability of this in this situation?

Thanks for help

btw. tourney is very far from money

I think your bounty equity is ~30% * $65 = ~$20

you get it allin good

if you play is good is other question

to figure things out i believe you need to be able to assign a $ value to the chipstacks. at this stage of the tournament you are making an educated guess.

you then can compare the value of your chipstack if you had folded to the average value of your chipstack if you had shoved to determine if shoving was better then folding.

(since calling and then either getting it in or folding postflop was an option, you might also consider it and compare)

i can't possibly assign $ values to the chipstacks but i can give you some frequencies to outcomes that might help you to determine the various potential chipstacks and there frequencies which permits you to determine the average value of the shove.


as played with actual hands

hero scoops 19.3% (hero wins both main and side pot plus bounty)
hero splits with btn 21% (both main and side pot are split 50/50, 17.6% hero gets the bounty, 3.4% btn gets the bounty)
hero splits with utg2 2.85% (no bounty is awarded as utg2 doesn't bust, hero gets 50% of mainpot and .63% gets 100% of side pot, .71% gets 75% of sidepot and 1.51% gets 50% of side pot)
hero busts 55.65%

(remaining 1.2% is a non 50/50 split or scoop and i've ignored it for simplicity, however .2+% is hero winning high and splitting low with btn which is .2+% more that hero is awarded the bounty and 75% of pots.)

the main pot is 7020 and the side pot is 22195

btw, my assumption is that the winning high hand is awarded the bounty, and the bounty is only awarded if the shortstack busts, if stars awards the bounty differently i'd appreciate it if someone posted that.


it would be nice if anyone were to assign $ values and do more math that they would share.

my above post is in error, that is to say in trying to simplify (for clarity) i was incomplete. i didn't include hero's share of the side pot when utg2 scoops or when utg2 and btn split the main pot. of course no bounty for hero, but chips that i omitted in the previous post.

when utg2 scoops the main pot (13.4%), hero scoops the sidepot 5.2% and splits it 1.1% (btn scoops it the remaining 7.1%)

when utg2 and btn split the main pot (15.95%), hero gets half the sidepot 8.3%

(so hero busts less frequently then the 55.65% because 14.6% of the time although he is getting 0 from the main pot, he is getting something from the sidepot. and of course values are approximate as a result of both simulation and rounding)

Nor can I. Disregarding ICM considerations, if we knew how many chips were in play and if we knew how much was in the prize pool, we could calculate Hero's "equity" in the prize pool:
(total in prize pool)*(Hero's chips)/(total tournament chips)=Hero's "equity."

There are
4,033+40,174+60,766+11,295+1,755+82,986+6,584+16,6 27=
224220 chips in play at this table.
Hero starts with 11295/224220= about 5% of the chips (at this table).

If these are all the players there are... if there are no other tables in play, then Hero starts the hand with about 5% equity in the prize pool.

I think Hero's equity in the bounty depends on the value of Hero's hand compared to the other hands involved in the action. But there's no way for us to know the values of the other hands involved in the action.

Too complex.

If I were SB, I'd fold to Button's raise to 4,800. I'd stay alive. Hero's hand lacks sufficient high card strength. Without Button's raise, Hero has a playable hand. With the raise, no.

Buzz