is that ok,or too aggressive?

Looks good to me - would hate to see him play perfect at 50bb and fold when you hit your cards on the turn.

I'd rather flat his c/r, but of course shoving can't be bad.

Why would u rather flat the c/r?

If turn is a brick we have no hand and are no longer ahead vs villain likely range. Makes calling what looks like the inevitable max bet on turn difficult (folding also difficult). It's possible villain can fold to scare cards if we make a nut hand. What cards do we want to hit on turn that aren't hearts and improve scoop equity? Do we think there is FE on turn/river if we brick?

I think 100% GII on flop and be aggressive - can be behind only to A 2 + set or A 2 3 + pair and it's hard to disguise flush if it hits on turn/river. If we shove flop we get scooped 25% vs worst case hand (A 2 J J). If we GII on turn after a brick we get scooped 45%

Position, visibility, made hand A8 (i.e. barring A246/A346 we are never currently "ahead").

I can think or two reasons to shove. You either think there is fold equity (I don't think anyone thinks there is) or you think you are pushing equity against his c/r -value range. While this very well might be the case, flatting might be even more +ev.

If we think he is check/folding a lot to obvious scare cards (mainly hearts), we should definitely be developing a flatting range on the flop, consisting of hands that don't want to see a brick and ones that want to see a brick and attack his weak checks. With this hand I think we have a clear call to a brick turn. If our hand is still A-high on the river, we save some money. I think we can rather safely fold if the board pairs on the turn, despite of course sometimes still having decent equity.

All in all, if you think you are pushing equity and are likely to make more mistakes than villain on later streets, go ahead and GII on the flop, it can't be that bad. I just think shoving to make the hand easier to play is not the optimal play in this case, or in general when getting raised and having no made hand + nutty draws.

But we are ahead OTF vs everything except monsters - we are 48/52 vs A 3 J J and if we swap the 3 for a higher card (4-8) then we are a fraction ahead on flop.

Villains might get aggro there with A 2 J Q kind of hand (49/51). Should villain have a hand such as (A 2)(4 6) with hearts, we are monster 70/30 favourite. We are exactly 50/50 vs A 4 J J.

Basically if we avoid the A 2 + set (39/61) and the A 2 3 + pair (42/58), we can never be far behind and if we spin on the flop, we have both the nut low to chase (we get low ~2/3 here) and we have the flush to chase (~1/3). If brick turn obv those odds drop significantly and like I say we get scooped 45% climbing from 25%.

I just don't see how this hand is good for us to call/fold because we lose so much equity on bricked turns that we don't "re-realise" on the river if we don't see the river.

Maybe playing deeper with at least 100 BBs I might think different and be unwilling to risk my MTT life on a 40/60,50/50,60/40 if I believe it's +EV for me to stay alive and pick better spots. Might also be true for a deep cash game. I have no doubt our GOAT friend OMB would shove the flop, assuming of course he didn't GII AIPF

Everything that you say is clear to me. I am not going to waste time by re-phrasing my last message.

We are call/folding less than 20% of the time so we can't lose that much equity can we?

On a dynamic flop like this, c/r range is obv less strong (i.e. more draws) so I push my equity here. With our visibility and position, no need to shove because it's easier or I'll make mistakes later or I won't realize my equity by not getting to the river. Maybe my villains just fold too much to my turn bets, but I was starting to think I had a leak by flatting too much in spots like this.

You did say "never ahead" which I don't think is true but OK.

So let's say Villain has Ac3cJsJd. We are behind PF (45/55) and OTF (48/52)

How often do we fold turn after calling villain c/r on flop?

Make a hand = A (2 aces), 2 (3 twos), 3 (2 threes), 4 (4 fours), 6 (4 sixes), 8 (3 eights) + 4 other hearts = 22/41 = 53.7%

Cards we like = A, 3, 4 + 6 other hearts = 14/41 = 34.1%

Cards we hate = 5, 7, 9, T, J, Q, K - 4 hearts = 19/41 = 46.3%

In this sim 46.3% of the time we face an all-in bet with no hand on the turn.

In other hands when villain value bets we must call on turn given pot size and our NFD - but that means we invest chips with 17.5% scoop equity.

If we fold on turn we lose 23.7% of our chips

So here are the numbers. Pay attention to scoop % which is 25.1% for us and 36.1% for villain PF

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ah2h3d8d	44.93%	272,226	358,542	38,793	405,848	186,744
acjsjd3c	55.07%	392,409	688,673	38,793	0	186,744

Then scoop % is 25.4% for us and 25.7% for villain OTF. Odds of us making ANY low are roughly 67%, winning low 54.9% and high 28.3%

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

820 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 5j7

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ah2h3d8d	47.96%	208	232	8	450	117
acjsjd3c	52.04%	211	580	8	0	117

Turn is a brick and our scoop % is 17.5% against 47.5%. There is a 45% chance we make ANY low and 37.5% for winning low.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

40 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 5j79

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ah2h3d8d	33.13%	7	7	0	15	3
acjsjd3c	66.88%	19	33	0	0	3

OK so what happens if dealer gives us a little help? We still only have 17.5% scoop equity but there is also a 7.5% chance we get quartered (0% chance we get scooped)

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

40 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 5j78

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ah2h3d8d	56.88%	7	7	0	37	3
acjsjd3c	43.13%	0	33	0	0	3

Let's pretend villain is a smart guy.

I don't think this hand is about avoiding mistakes on turn or river it's about avoiding mistakes on flop. Calling the c/r gives up scoop equity to everything except a good heart on the turn. Any high heart gives villain 27% equity and low heart 13%, so villain can fold even to a value bet if this is his read.

Change stacks, action, add some player history and u can play the hand different ways. In this particular hand when we think (know) villain is strong we are donating chips with flat call.

You did not understand what "never ahead" means.

You make a decent effort of a rational analysis, but present nothing even resembling a conclusion.

This is only true against the monster range. Yes, we are in bad shape vs a monster (that he didn't 3bet for some reason). But why can't villain have JJT9 or 753A? Against 753A, for example, an 8 on the turn increases our scoop% to 37.5%.

It seems like you're trying to prove that we should jam flop against JJ3A because our scoop % goes down on a brick turn, but we're behind on the flop anyway so do you really want to jam in that scenario? If you know he is that strong, then I almost for sure call the flop.

"Never ahead" means under no circumstance are we ahead. Maybe you mean never ahead means sometimes ahead sometimes behind sometimes 50/50

You make a decent effort of understanding my rational analysis, but present nothing even resembling enlightenment. Your condescension skills are high though

he's a pro at being condescending....

Agree with him though. I'd also prefer to flat for mostly the reasons he said but some others.

I'm always seeing river though unless board pairs even if I have to call pot turn. But that won't always happen. There will be lots of scare cards that he will check turn and we can extract value.

Gii on flop is not bad or anything and will be slightly ahead mostly and sometimes slightly behind but small margins. This is a tournament not a cash game so tournament life must be taken into account and pushing equity when ahead if you hit OTT is more valueable imo then pushing tiny flop equities at this stage with a decent stack.

If we don't hit and board doesn't pair then there will likely be scare cards that slow him down and possibly chance to take the pot by either bluffing on str8ening boards/and or betting him off say jj with only made low.

Ohhhh I am all worried that nerdboy's gonna shoot me down. But if he does come in and claim he would flat flop he's lying 100%

A3JJ is not part of the monster range and not 100% 3-bet pre in PLO8 from the BB. The monster range is A 2 + set or A 2 3 + pair, these are the only hands we are behind OTF by more than 5%.

The example I give is same as (AK) vs 77 in NLHE, so a race. Villain could obviously have many other LD/FD/SET/2P/SD combos that he 3-bets flop and is behind us. If villain has A 3 5 7 or 9 T J J he is a donkey and we should know this already.

It is how the math works that it is more + EV to see the turn and river guaranteed with our hand than to play the turn first and then the river. All of our scoop equity other than running wheel (maybe split anyway) is with the FD. As I said the flush is impossible to hide and smart villain will do all not to pay us.

If we know villain is ahead especially in high pot we should not be calling a c/r OTF is what I am proving. When we re-evaluate on turn we are happy only 34.1% of the time, 46.3% of the time we are unhappy and we are easy to manipulate for smart villain value bets. From the SPR view, the SPR is arguably too high OTF (SPR = 12.7) to justify either call the c/r or a shove if we believe villain has the goods. Our best options are fold to the c/r OTF or shove to realise the maximum equity of our hand. Call/fold on turn is pathetic and very annoying for us, call/value call is - EV with brick turn

*SPR works better with PLO and NLHE than O8 due to low draws. In PLO we fold 100% if we believe villain is strong here. That means in O8 if we call here for the turn our equity is with a split pot with small scoop. If we shove flop we get more all-in scoops which is what we need in PLO and NLHE, and also O8

Just about the worst thing u can do is commit to see river without shoving flop. I know it sucks to fold turn but 46.3% of the time we either fold the turn or make - EV fish play for the river. Like I say if villain value bet we can't fold perhaps even to paired turn.

I assume that villain is strong and competent here so the only scare cards we have to make villain fold are hearts, which is exactly when we don't want villain to fold. I also assume V is shoving turn in this hand always unless turn is a heart no pair.

I never want V to fold when I hit nut low flush which is why if I have this read on villain, I want to either make V fold the flop (not happening here) or pay me when I hit. If we don't make flush we still survive 67% if we shove flop so, sensible gamble time. I would say gamble on turn after brick is fish gamble time but I know we all do it sometimes

Well I think folding turn is worst than calling. And if I have to fold the turn I need to GII OTF. So really we just disagreeing about pot odds OTT. It isn't ideal and the worst scenario is if we brick and he pots but I think it's just about ok to call unless I have counted wrongly which is quite possible But anyway....

There are more scare cards that are not hearts. Many non heart str8ening cards can peel on turn and river as I mentioned in previous post.
And as you said we want hearts to continue and the range that villain is check potting flop is very unlikely to check/fold turn if a heart peels.

You said you assume he's competent.I'm thinking is probably a pretty bad reg that overplays/overbets hands.

Personally I think its +cev to play it this way rather than flipping every time. Not to mention the increased number of time I keep my tournament life. I'm lazy to count but I thought with the worst case scenario of calling a pot turn hero is left with 15 bb's.

So I guess it's a measure between:
having 15 bb remaining when low and hearts brick as opposed to being scooped and busting
versus
how many more chips hero wins when he scoops going allin OTF versus how many chips he wins if heart comes OTT or OTR.

I think the better strategy is to flat flop but I like that 80%+ of competent players GII there. I'd be sometimes getting it in and sometimes flatting and the variables would not have to change at all for either play. But in real time I would not be able to calculate accurately all the time so will be wrong sometimes but as either play is fine it's no disaster.

Yes I agree with this

Well OK odds are he is bad reg but if we assume V can tie his own shoes, his c/r range on that flop has to be easy to read. If we have nut hearts and low it's more likely villain has a 70% lock on high pot or A2/A23+weak high (or a bluff).

I don't think we disagree all that much on how to play the hand we seem to disagree on how smart and lucky villain is.

IF we believe villain is smart and lucky we shouldn't call the c/r and the math proves that. If we believe dumb and weak or not monster strong, we can call if we want to.

Can we get villain's hand? Thanks

Don't want to clutter up this thread anymore than I have already, but I still don't get where you are going with this. On the flop against A3JJ, it is -EV to shove since we are behind and assuming he will never fold. Maybe you're just saying that it is less -EV, but that doesn't really seem like a good argument for shoving.

I agree with billy that villain is probably not check folding to a heart on the turn based on c/r flop range, which seems at odds with your analysis (and my original thought to shove so that villain can't fold to hearts), so then it's just a matter of ranges and reads on villain more than anything.

The SPR argues against call the c/r and the shove. What I show is that the shove is less - EV than calling the c/r, which is the max - EV play (folding is better). This of course is only when we think villain is strong.

OK villain may not fold turn or river and yes our range and read is always important, but if we assume V is strong on flop, the only cards he might check/fold to are (low) hearts on turn.

If we value bet the heart turn (we want 4 high and 4 low hearts so 50/50 hi/lo on these hearts) there are hands V shouldn't fold with but those hands (A2+set and A23+pair) we mostly (~2/3) get 3/4 of pot instead of scoop and still risk being scooped ourselves OTR

V equity is 27% for hearts and 13% for low hearts (A3JJ) on turn, so this does mean V can realistically check/fold a heart on turn with a lot of strong flop hands, even to a value bet, and that it is mathematically correct to do so if he thinks we have (A2)(38). Yes it may be unlikely for some players but we have decent stack so, possible.

I guess I just don't see how V will c/r that flop without mostly being in a race at worst, which means we should shove/fold to the c/r and not call with our hand. With a mid-high SPR we shouldn't really Gii OTF (or call c/r) and if SPR was higher (bigger stacks) it would be more - EV to Gii OTF if we thought V was strong.

A4K7

Awesome. You used your read on V for big + EV play with V drawing thin (22%) to scoop against us (40%). V must be one of billy's bad regs

I should add to my last comment that if we pot pre we can lower the SPR and make our shove to the c/r OTF more + EV against all hands

If we know V's hand what play do we like now?

This isn't a final table. This isn't likely to be a tough field. I think shoving is optimum play here once check raised. Without straight outs flatting is okay.

no relevance that it isn't a FT. The reasons for flatting or GII OTF is not ICM related.

Yeah obv hero's hand is pretty good for a GII OTF versus this actual hand

So villain GII OTF with 2nd nut low draw, 2nd nut flush draw and 2nd pair His 2nd pair at least was good.

I don't think we're deep enough to pot pre with this kind of hand...but interesting concept and if deeper I think yeah.

I mentioned the fact it was not a ft as part of the factors that mean we do not need to be worried about monsters under the bed or that opponents ranges will be particularly narrow.

I think you and other posters in this thread underestimate any given villains ability to get away from the turns that are best for us.