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Old 02-27-2017, 03:46 AM   #1001
AKQJ10
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

Quote:
Originally Posted by tiger415 View Post
Anyone interested in swapping their o8 strats for my s8 or lhe strats?
I'm always interested in learning more about how to play (any of the three games) but I don't understand what you mean by swapping "strats." How is this different than just hanging around here discussing strategy and asking questions?

One thing that IMO would benefit this forum would be more theoretical discussion of how to assess certain situations, perhaps using a range of related situations, rather than everybody insisting all discussion has to be about one real-life hand. Here's what I mean. To take an example at random, "how to play backdoor low draws."

To an extent it's just a math problem, but there are also some parameters and assumptions that change how you think of the math problem. The naked BDLD will come in (24 * 20) / (45 * 44) or 24% of the time, but just having 8 bets in the pot (getting 4:1 on half) isn't enough. Getting quartered occasionally really hurts your odds on a longshot, and often you'll have to put in a turn bet only to fold on the river.

So the value of a BDNLD depends greatly on its equity besides your nut low draw. Do you have any remote outs to win high? Do you have a backup low card that could win low if you get counterfeited?

Let's make up some action....

2 limp, we raise button with AJ92, blinds call, limpers call.

Flop (10 SB)

LAG BB leads out, one fold, two calls.


The value of our hand is a lot different on:

3QT
3QT
6QK
3KT
69K
69K
and so forth. How would each of those change the value of our draw?
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Old 02-28-2017, 10:55 AM   #1002
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

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Originally Posted by AKQJ10 View Post
The naked BDLD will come in (24 * 20) / (45 * 44) or 24% of the time,
?
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Old 02-28-2017, 09:27 PM   #1003
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

back door low draw
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Old 03-02-2017, 09:44 AM   #1004
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

i question the equation not the abbreviation.

it troubles me that no one else seems to.


in 2 of the 3 circumstances where you may encounter a BDLD, 24% is an adequate approximation for the percentage of board run-outs (turn river combinations) when you don't account for an opponents range however it is never arrived at by the equation (24 * 20) / (45 * 44)

additionally, 24% isn't the percentage that applies to the subsequent discussion within the post.
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Old 03-02-2017, 01:44 PM   #1005
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

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Originally Posted by ngFTW View Post
i question the equation not the abbreviation.
It's best to express that using words, not punctuation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ngFTW View Post
it troubles me that no one else seems to.
Silence is not acceptance. There's generally someone on 2+2 chomping at the bit to jump all over something like this. I'm surprised it took so long.
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Old 03-02-2017, 01:57 PM   #1006
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

It's because ngFTW is the only one here that has any understanding of mathematics.
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Old 03-04-2017, 07:30 PM   #1007
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

Local casino's rake structure for a $5/$10 LO8 w/ full kill is: $1 on flop, $2 at $10, $3 at 20, and $4 (cap) at $30. Does this sound standard?

I like the $4 cap, but it hits pretty much every hand...
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Old 03-05-2017, 08:06 PM   #1008
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

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Originally Posted by STinLA View Post
It's best to express that using words, not punctuation.


Silence is not acceptance. There's generally someone on 2+2 chomping at the bit to jump all over something like this. I'm surprised it took so long.
It's good to troubleshoot our own thinking so I'm trying to troubleshoot mine here. If we have naked A2 (or A3 if that's BDLD), all else equal:

six nonpairing low ranks remain before the turn
24 cards remain of those low ranks
seven cards are visible in Hero's hand or on the board
45 unseen cards remain

Prob(nonpairing low rank on turn) is 24/45

If that should happen:
five nonpairing low ranks will remain before the river
20 cards remain of those low ranks
eight cards are visible
44 unseen cards remain

All else equal, prob (nonpairing low rank on river conditional on nonpairing low rank on turn) is 20/44.

P (A intersection B) = P (A) * P (B | A)
P (np low turn and np low river) = P (np low turn) * P (np low river | np low turn) =

(24 / 45) * (20 / 44) = (24 * 20) / (45 * 44)


I must admit, I still don't understand what I'm missing. I hope someone will take a shot at providing a real explanation so I can learn from the holes in my own thinking.



*I'm not considering card elimination from ranges we expect opponents to be playing, etc. (How much that matters is a separate interesting discussion.)
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Old 03-05-2017, 08:10 PM   #1009
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

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Originally Posted by ngFTW View Post
additionally, 24% isn't the percentage that applies to the subsequent discussion within the post.
What does that have to do with anything? I was trying to give an example of how to discuss a generic theoretical topic and then move to specific synthetic hand examples. Clearly it wasn't a very good example. Sometimes one misfires.

It's up to you how you want to allocate your time, but your posts would be more meaningful if you'd bother to add a sentence or two explaining what you're referring to occasionally.
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Old 03-06-2017, 08:36 AM   #1010
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

to have a backdoor low draw, BDLD, requires that your hand consists of atleast 2 low ranks and that the board contains exactly 1 low rank.
a deck consists of 8 low ranks.

with exactly 2 low ranks in your hand and 1 on the flop, the turn-river runouts that complete a low are the combinations of 5 non-pairing low ranks and the subsequent 4 non-pairing low ranks.
10 combinations of 16 each =160 combinations of the total 990 possible board runouts (where order doesn't matter) (and opponent's range is not taken into account). 16.12%

with exactly 3 low ranks in your hand and 1 on the flop, the turn-river runouts that complete a low are the combinations of the 4 non-pairing low ranks and the subsequent 3 non-pairing low ranks plus the combinations of the 4 non-pairing and pairing one of the 3 low ranks in your hand.
6 combinations of 16 each + 12 combinations of 12 each =240 of 990 board runouts. 24.24%

with exactly 4 low ranks in your hand and 1 on the flop, the turn-river runouts that complete a low are the combinations of the 3 non-pairing low ranks and the subsequent 2 non-pairing low ranks plus the combinations of the 3 non-pairing low ranks and pairing one of the 4 low ranks in your hand plus the combinations of pairing 2 of the low ranks in your hand.
3 combinations of 16 each + 12 combinations of 12 each +6 combinations of 9 each =246 of 990. 24.84%


when you hold A2J9 and you have a BDNLD and your opponent can have any hand, you have a ~16.2% probability of making a low at showdown. consequently, 8.1% is the upper bound of your avg. pot equity from low. if pot odds are such that you need 26% equity to make a plus EV call, you need atleast 16% equity from high.


Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10 View Post

I must admit, I still don't understand what I'm missing. I hope someone will take a shot at providing a real explanation so I can learn from the holes in my own thinking.
i would think if you've glanced at what i posted above you will have recognized your error, but as it seems you think i should be very explicit in my posts,
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10 View Post
six nonpairing low ranks remain before the turn
24 cards remain of those low ranks
is wrong. its 5. 8-2-1 =5
5 nonpairing low ranks
20 cards remain of those low ranks
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10 View Post
If that should happen:
five nonpairing low ranks will remain before the river
20 cards remain of those low ranks
is wrong. its 4. 8-2-1-1 =4
4 nonpairing low ranks
16 cards remain of those low ranks
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Old 03-07-2017, 01:58 AM   #1011
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

Quote:
Originally Posted by ngFTW View Post
when you hold A2J9 and you have a BDNLD and your opponent can have any hand, you have a ~16.2% probability of making a low at showdown. consequently, 8.1% is the upper bound of your avg. pot equity from low. if pot odds are such that you need 26% equity to make a plus EV call, you need atleast 16% equity from high.
^^^ Should note that in a more realistic scenario, your true low probability/equity is a bit lower even.

Last edited by lotuspod2; 03-07-2017 at 02:11 AM.
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Old 03-07-2017, 02:46 AM   #1012
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

Actually that one didn't seem to deviate much but them random trials tho :/

Quote:
Originally Posted by amok View Post
It's because ngFTW is the only one here that has any understanding of mathematics.
^^^

select count(madeLo(hero, river))
from game="omaha8", hero="A2J9", villain1="[a-5][a-5][2-k][3-k]", board="[9-K][9-K][3-8]"
Results:
Trials COUNT 1
600000 97039 (16.17%)

IMO abstraction and intuition are probably better concepts for a newcomer, rather than the raw math anyway

Last edited by lotuspod2; 03-07-2017 at 03:12 AM.
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Old 03-07-2017, 03:51 AM   #1013
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

now with basic alternate reads sorta, def not perfect but at least not any 4 lol

low-ish suited/connector player image:
select count(madeLo(hero, river))
from game="omaha8", hero="A2KQ", villain1="[a-5][2-5][3-8][4-k]", board="[9-K][9-K][3-8]"
Results:
Trials COUNT 1
600000 93308 (15.55%)


sorta high-ish image or maybe decent player but more of a plo/nlhe background(?):

select count(madeLo(hero, river))
from game="omaha8", hero="A2KQ", villain1="A[2-5][t-k][t-k]", board="[9-K][9-K][3-8]"
Results:
Trials COUNT 1
600000 108398 (18.07%)
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Old 03-11-2017, 10:50 PM   #1014
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Re: Newb thread (thread for newcomer's questions) - includes links to popular wells

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Originally Posted by ngFTW View Post
i would think if you've glanced at what i posted above you will have recognized your error, but as it seems you think i should be very explicit in my posts,
Appreciate it. I had a brain fart and got six remaining ranks instead of five. I probably just forgot to eliminate the one on the flop. That's all I was missing, but I appreciate the detail.

I hadn't thought about solving it with combinations (permutations seems more straightforward to me even though the numbers are bigger) but both give the same answer

(20 * 16) / (45 * 44) = 0.1616 repeating = 160 / 990. Not a wrong method I was using, just a messed up parameter. No big deal.
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