Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Omaha/8 Discussions of Omaha High-Low Split (Eight or Better) Poker.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-24-2017, 08:26 AM   #1
BiggNuttz
stranger
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 3
MTT variance and volatility in 2017.

I wanted to ask our esteemed forum members for your thoughts and advice about the state of the game and volatility/variance as it specifically relates to MTTs in 2017. I am mostly asking about Pokerstars, but I appreciate thoughts as they apply to all sites.

Just to give some background: I am a rec, and play for fun and to keep my brain engaged. I have played all forms of poker seriously for over 30 years, but for the last 10 or so, tend to focus exclusively on PLO/PLO8/NLO8. I am a winning, low stakes MTT player, and the money involved is so small as to be of no concern to me. I enjoy the game, enjoy passing time playing, and the intellectual challenges the game poses. I have noticed some drastic changes in the game over the last 6~12 months, and it has concerned me, as it relates to my game.

I seem to have encountered a spell of variance, the likes of which I have never had before. I have gone from a very normal ~20% ITM, to sub 10% currently. I have had to redeposit into my account almost every couple of weeks to cover a dwindling bankroll, something I have never had to do in the last 8 years. I have taken 3 breaks of 2 weeks from the game, and dropped to stakes as low as $1.10. I have spent time studying my game, and the games of others I consider good players. None of this has made any difference.

The only conclusion I have been able to come up with to explain this is as follows: I believe with the change to mostly 6 Max and the multiple re-entry format, that now the game has shifted to a shove anything all in pre early, in an effort to build a big stack and then use this to cruise into the money. What this seems to have done is amplify volatility and results. I have noticed that my results now are extremely polarized: I will either burn through 3-4 re-entries and be out (usually each time in just one hand) or double/triple/quadruple up, and then have an easy cruise at least into the money, if not the final table. Unfortunately the split is now ~90% losers, ~10% ITM. I have also noted that in any 8/9 max game vs 6 max and especially in PLO8 vs NLO8, my results are much more in line with my historical ~20% ITM range.

My questions are:

1) Do you agree with my assumptions/conclusions?

2) Am I missing something fundamental that has changed in the game that I need to learn and adjust to?

3) Am I just experiencing some extreme run bad?

4) Any other ideas, suggestions or comments to help me improve my game and get back on the winning track?

Many thanks in advance.
BiggNuttz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2017, 09:05 AM   #2
WINNINGSTEK
adept
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 828
Re: MTT variance and volatility in 2017.

I don't really play micro-stakes so don't know much about how it plays there but what I do know is that PLO8 offers much more post-flop play and less variance than the No Limit counterpart, so switching to Pot Limit might make sense.
WINNINGSTEK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2017, 07:20 PM   #3
BoxcarHobo
newbie
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 40
Re: MTT variance and volatility in 2017.

I think there's another aspect to consider, which is just that the tournaments are a lot harder than they used to be. I know for me I've been playing plo and plo8 mtts for more than ten years on stars, and this is the first time I'm playing the $5-11 buyin ones and it seems like a lot of good regs are playing lower buyin tourneys than ever before.

But (and obviously this is just a guess without seeing you play) a lot of people who have played mostly full ring don't play quite loose enough in six max, especially in nlo8 where antes are involved as well.
BoxcarHobo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2017, 09:17 PM   #4
lotuspod2
adept
 
lotuspod2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: [♥]]] [♦]]] [♣]]]
Posts: 757
Re: MTT variance and volatility in 2017.

There's also a bit more variance in the table draw. More players at the tables = better chance of getting a more balanced mix of players skill-wise.
lotuspod2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2017, 09:30 AM   #5
Jytky
newbie
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 44
Re: MTT variance and volatility in 2017.

Yes, since the move to the 6-max games have gone towards more aggressive all in battles. With 9-max there are lot more time to wait good cards, so shoving with speculative holdings is lot less good strategy in 9-max.

With 6-max aggressive shoving and tighter nut peddling are closer in ev value, while in 9-max nut peddling was easy way to make profit.

The result is just what stars wanted - more bingo in the early rounds, so weaker players could advance further. With 9-max too loose fish got eliminated early on, which was for the profit of regs.

There is still lot skill element involved, when stack are high compared to blinds and in later stages of tournament, but more bingo element to even the field.
Jytky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2017, 11:35 AM   #6
assortednuts
centurion
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 165
Re: MTT variance and volatility in 2017.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BiggNuttz View Post
I wanted to ask our esteemed forum members for your thoughts and advice about the state of the game and volatility/variance as it specifically relates to MTTs in 2017. I am mostly asking about Pokerstars, but I appreciate thoughts as they apply to all sites.

Just to give some background: I am a rec, and play for fun and to keep my brain engaged. I have played all forms of poker seriously for over 30 years, but for the last 10 or so, tend to focus exclusively on PLO/PLO8/NLO8. I am a winning, low stakes MTT player, and the money involved is so small as to be of no concern to me. I enjoy the game, enjoy passing time playing, and the intellectual challenges the game poses. I have noticed some drastic changes in the game over the last 6~12 months, and it has concerned me, as it relates to my game.

I seem to have encountered a spell of variance, the likes of which I have never had before. I have gone from a very normal ~20% ITM, to sub 10% currently. I have had to redeposit into my account almost every couple of weeks to cover a dwindling bankroll, something I have never had to do in the last 8 years. I have taken 3 breaks of 2 weeks from the game, and dropped to stakes as low as $1.10. I have spent time studying my game, and the games of others I consider good players. None of this has made any difference.

The only conclusion I have been able to come up with to explain this is as follows: I believe with the change to mostly 6 Max and the multiple re-entry format, that now the game has shifted to a shove anything all in pre early, in an effort to build a big stack and then use this to cruise into the money. What this seems to have done is amplify volatility and results. I have noticed that my results now are extremely polarized: I will either burn through 3-4 re-entries and be out (usually each time in just one hand) or double/triple/quadruple up, and then have an easy cruise at least into the money, if not the final table. Unfortunately the split is now ~90% losers, ~10% ITM. I have also noted that in any 8/9 max game vs 6 max and especially in PLO8 vs NLO8, my results are much more in line with my historical ~20% ITM range.

My questions are:

1) Do you agree with my assumptions/conclusions?

2) Am I missing something fundamental that has changed in the game that I need to learn and adjust to?

3) Am I just experiencing some extreme run bad?

4) Any other ideas, suggestions or comments to help me improve my game and get back on the winning track?

Many thanks in advance.
When you figure out what is happening, clue me in. I am experiencing pretty much the same in pl08. I am talking cash though, not mtt's. That being said, I study my game and my opponents' constantly. I really study those I respect. That said, I make a lot of semi-bluffs and run horribly when it all goes in. I would love to say I am over playing my hands except I see clearly winning players "getting there" far more than myself with the exact same play. They say everyone runs the same over time. I don't believe them.
assortednuts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2017, 11:44 AM   #7
amok
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: plotown
Posts: 1,665
Re: MTT variance and volatility in 2017.

Quote:
Originally Posted by assortednuts View Post
They say everyone runs the same over time.
This is clearly a misunderstanding. Everyone doesn't run the same over time i.e. you will not "run better" in the future just because you "ran bad" in the past. Just get used to variance.
amok is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2017, 10:40 AM   #8
Czar Chasm
old hand
 
Czar Chasm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 1,423
Re: MTT variance and volatility in 2017.

Along those lines, I wonder who has had the worst lifetime runbad over a decent sample. I feel truly sorry for whoever it is. They probably always whine to their neighbors about how awful they run and nobody believes them.
Czar Chasm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2017, 09:03 PM   #9
varianceisweird
banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 40
Re: MTT variance and volatility in 2017.

    Poker Stars, $15 Buy-in (50/100 blinds, 12 ante) No Limit Omaha H/L Tournament, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37681973

    Hero (BTN): 4,144 (41.4 bb)
    Montzerrat77 (SB): 3,472 (34.7 bb)
    smiechu0808 (BB): 2,980 (29.8 bb)
    Beeethoven87 (MP): 4,142 (41.4 bb)
    Tagatta (CO): 3,155 (31.6 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with K A A 9
    Beeethoven87 raises to 250, Tagatta calls 250, Hero raises to 4,132 and is all-in, 2 folds, Beeethoven87 calls 3,880 and is all-in, Tagatta folds

    Flop: (8,720) A Q Q (2 players, 2 are all-in)
    Turn: (8,720) 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
    River: (8,720) 5 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

    Spoiler:



    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.


    Yes variance does suck in 2017. The first time in my life I have ever flopped Aces full and had 0% equity. Made me laugh because the villain here makes bank and has sucked out on me so many times it makes me question the deal
    varianceisweird is offline   Reply With Quote
    Old 03-18-2017, 05:06 PM   #10
    cfreaks
    adept
     
    cfreaks's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Feb 2009
    Location: Team Shakeweight
    Posts: 1,090
    Re: MTT variance and volatility in 2017.

    This guy might win the variance contest:

    http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...-rainbow-6-pot

    cfreaks is offline   Reply With Quote
    Old 05-09-2017, 01:58 PM   #11
    elcid
    journeyman
     
    elcid's Avatar
     
    Join Date: Mar 2009
    Posts: 241
    Re: MTT variance and volatility in 2017.

    Uhm, just a quick question: when using pt4 if I want to check if I run good or bad I would look at the Graph "Tournaments / Winnings in BB", correct?
    elcid is offline   Reply With Quote

    Reply
          

    Thread Tools
    Display Modes

    Posting Rules
    You may not post new threads
    You may not post replies
    You may not post attachments
    You may not edit your posts

    BB code is On
    Smilies are On
    [IMG] code is On
    HTML code is Off


    Forum Jump


    All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:58 PM.


    Powered by vBulletin®
    Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
    Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.33 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
    Copyright ę 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
     
     
    Poker Players - Streaming Live Online