Was in a very good limit O8 game. Most players quite loose preflop and on the flop, some still loose on turn and river.

3 limp to me and I'm on the button with QQTT, one suit. I typically just fold this type of hand, but decided to play since the game is so good and I have the button. I think SB actually folded which was unusual, so say 5 to the flop.

Flop is 622, with two of my suit. Checked to a somewhat aggressive younger guy. Extremely loose player just to my right calls. Is this a standard fold, or does anyone call here?

I'm starting with this hand and spot, but would like to expand to something more general later.

So 5.5 small bets in pot (less rake).

If one of the checkers calls, and neither check/raises, ignoring rake you seem to be getting about 8.5 to 1 to call. Odds against catching a jack or ten on the turn are 41 to 4 but if you do catch a jack or ten on the turn, you might be able to collect several big bets, which means you're effectively (considering implied bets) getting more like 14 to 1 to call.

Thus considering implied pot odds, you're getting more to call than the odds against making your hand on the turn. And that means you have a favorable call. (Then you hope for no third low rank on the river).

Anyhow, with two over pairs, and with this action, this is a call for me. (And then I'm probably folding to a bet after an unfavorable turn).

OK. Sounds interesting.

Buzz

But a big percentage of the time you'll have to split the pot even when you make your hand.

I'd still call for one bet because there is also a non-trivial chance that you have the best hand with QQ.

Pot odds dictate you snap call this. Too much money in the pot and available on future streets to not call a single bet with 4 outs to the nuts and a potential scoop. I'm also never folding any double overpair hands preflop for a single bet.

Good point. If the turn is a queen or ten, then there are 6*4=24 low cards (out of 44) that make low on the river. (about 54.54%). Looks like we need the players who have already checked to call, and maybe call on the river. Hard to say from here whether they will or not.

I think if we want to play this to the showdown, then we want as few as possible opponents seeing the flop, so as to cut down the chances anyone happens to be holding a deuce (two). After this flop, it's too late to do that. Probably no one is folding a hand with a deuce after this flop.

What I'm saying is we missed our opportunity to play the hand that way. If we wanted to reason there's a non-trivial chance we have the best hand (which is true, but more expensive) then we should have raised before the flop, hoping to limit the field... but we didn't do that...

Four opponents see the flop.
They have 16 cards between them.
2 missing deuces.
The probability at least one of them has at least one deuce is
P=1-C(43,16)/C(45,16)=1-29*28/45/44=about 59%.
In other words before anyone bets it's roughly 3 to 2 that at least one opponent has at least one deuce. (That's not all that can beat two pairs, queens over deuces, but it's the most likely danger two pairs, queens over deuces, faces).

But that's before anyone bets. Once someone bets it's more likely the opponent who bets has a deuce.

However, when "somewhat aggressive younger guy" bets, we can't tell whether he's betting 2XYZ or a low draw (or something else). Does he have one of the missing deuces? Would someone else slow play a missing deuce?

My thinking was we pay one more small bet to see just the turn and then fold without putting in any big bets if the turn is unfavorable.

If instead we plan to see the showdown, then we have to plan on continuing through two big betting rounds. With no raises, that will cost us 5 small bets rather than 1 small bet. We would get to see two more board cards, rather than just one more board card, roughly doubling our chances of improving, but it costs us five times as much to double our chances.

One more small bet to see one more card seems a bargain to me. Five more small bets to see two more cards doesn't (seem a bargain).

Buzz

You typically fold QQTTss??? I think I had a slight heart attack reading this. Nobody can be THAT tight!

I was thinking more like you call the flop and see what happens, not that I'm going to showdown every time. But you will make it to the river some percentage of the time just paying this one bet. If the LAG is betting air or naked low draw, it could well get checked to you on the turn. And then you will sometimes get a free showdown or have to call one big bet to see if your QQ is good. Add that to the chances you catch a T or Q, and it is worth it to pay the one bet for me.

Pretty much this.

Yes, I generally fold it preflop unless a situation like this where I'm on the button with several limpers in front. It was just single suited, not double suited though. Even double suited it's nothing I would be excited about getting though, I don't particularly like any high-only hands, especially those without an ace.

But I did flop a flush draw here, no one has mentioned that.

Its a pretty bad spot, I think calling or folding are both ok.. I think calling sets up a lot of reverse implied equity spots where we lose more to better flushes and boats.. its pretty easy for one of our opponents to have a 2, or even a boat on the flop.. we can estimate how often an opponent has a 2 using some of the better sim software out there

Against strong players I'd lean towards fold, we have very little invested.. we get better odds if the table is really loose and bad but really this is an ok spot to make a tight laydown and avoid a bigger hit

Me too. But after this flop I would need a queen or a ten on the turn in order to put more money into the pot on the third betting round. Thus without a queen or ten on the turn, I'm folding to a bet on the third betting round.

I see. I don't think the turn will get checked, but if it does, then we get to see the river for free.

Buzz

Looks like a call to me. We often only win half if we hit our Q or T, but we also get a ton of money into the pot on the turn if we hit from anyone with a 2 / A[3-4] / even something like 643.