JJ223 Big-O Facing CO Steal
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,378
I'm trying to get better at these mix games so thought I'd post this for some feedback. I'm admittedly novice so glad to take any advice given to me here.
8-handed 40/80 mix, we're on Big-O.
Folds to CO who seems competent, who decides to open.
I have JJ223 double-suited on button and decide to 3-bet.
Is this too loose/awful?
My general thinking as to why it's not awful:
* I have two deuces and a three, so the odds of my opponent holding a better low hand such as A2 or A3 are less likely than usual. AK4XX and AK5XX with a suited ace seems like likely possibilities.
* My suits are only J-high but that may be good enough if I can get it heads up, and I'm capable of limiting losses if I hit a weak flush.
* Double-set capability, I mean come on.
* This guy's probably not auto-raising QQ or KK and JJ has a small chance of holding up on its own. Obviously AA is an easy hand for him to have though, given that I have no aces and everyone in front of him folded.
* I would have gone for the steal had he not raised in front of me.
On the flip side:
* One likely holding of his is AA
* AA2 and AA3 has me totally screwed
* He likely has a suited ace and maybe even a suited king as well. If he has these in my suits I'm dead on flushes.
* The big blind in this hand is a gambly type and is not likely going away, and loves to jam flop/turn.
I think on post-analysis this is a fairly trivial fold and the bad outweighs the good as outlined above.
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 23
I'm pretty much a novice too. So my analysis will likely get kicked to the curb.
Raising to balance out your hand ranges makes sense. I'm just not sure a raise here for any kind of value is a good idea. I'd fold. Quickly. Here's why....
Folded to CO could mean no A in first four hands. You don't have one. They could be in deck (good for your low) or in the CO or blinds. Bad for you.
Two sets? Sure, flopping a set of Jacks may get you the pot (or lose to a straight if board doesn't pair). A set of 2s you may have to fold many times as you could easily be getting freerolled if flop comes all low.
I wouldn't feel comfortable making a jack high flush and feeling pressure from any villain. Position helps though.
You still have the blinds to act and they could 1. Have the goods or 2. Execute a squeeze type play. Now what? You call the extra bet compounding a potential error to begin with.
I'd fold as dealt. Potentially raise with JJ234, JJ235, JJ245 type of hands.
I hate Big O. And love it.
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 28,055
This is a good hand to 3b or fold from the btn, once you note that bb won't fold though there is no value in raising - you might end up playing for 4 or 5 bets
Last edited by monikrazy; 05-31-2017 at 09:03 PM.
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,505
fold... u dont have an ace cant make a nut low unless an ace hits, then ur high is no good. u r correct if u p[lay it it is a steal. I would fold pre, big O the nuts are usually out there and u cant really make any nuts.
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 119
The chances of your opponent having a hand like AA2 are greater than you think. Your flush draws may be costly if you hit them. If you catch a jack, you've still got a drawing hand.
Easy fold.
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 10,461
If it was shorthanded or 4 card, I think you can do profitable business.
As things stand, I don't feel the same way.
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 6,296
5 choose 2 is ten, so the odds of CO having A2, etc. (any two card combo) is 66% more likely than if it was in regular FLO8.
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,632
As a beginner in this game, I would not have considered 3betting but now that I consider the spot it seems better than a flat to push the blinds out since your hand doesn't make the nuts too often. I personally would probably make the fishy flatcall with the 2 wheel cards and 2 blocker but I'm sure folding is the right play in most lineups.