Sorry first one had some bugs, did some research and found the HH

PokerStars Hand #163720722551: Tournament #1767952353, $39.10+$39.00+$3.90 USD Omaha Hi/Lo No Limit - Level XVIII (1000/2000) - 2016/12/29 18:28:54 CET [2016/12/29 12:28:54 ET]
Table '1767952353 7' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: maucchi (20272 in chips, $195 bounty)
Seat 2: Belg_owner (53774 in chips, $282.75 bounty)
Seat 3: cheval king (21282 in chips, $78 bounty)
Seat 5: Dowgh-Santos (75528 in chips, $78 bounty)
Seat 6: maxfey01 (39144 in chips, $358.30 bounty)
maucchi: posts the ante 500
Belg_owner: posts the ante 500
cheval king: posts the ante 500
Dowgh-Santos: posts the ante 500
maxfey01: posts the ante 500
Belg_owner: posts small blind 1000
cheval king: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Belg_owner [Jc Kh 2s 3c]
Dowgh-Santos: folds
maxfey01: raises 36644 to 38644 and is all-in
maucchi: folds
Belg_owner: folds
cheval king: folds
Uncalled bet (36644) returned to maxfey01
maxfey01 collected 7500 from pot
maxfey01: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7500 | Rake 0
Seat 1: maucchi (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Belg_owner (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: cheval king (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Dowgh-Santos folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: maxfey01 collected (7500)

+







Villain shoved(or called an AI) this before:
As 9h 5h Js
5d Ts 6c 6h
Jc 5s Jd Ac
8c Qs Tc 9c





Payjumps first: 900+ booty's
2nd 750+-
3th 580
4th 325
5th 225
6th 150
etc etc

hero?

it would seem like a fold, but working numbers seem to indicate that it is a call unless you think CO shoved with a very tight range.

i used ICM to give a $ value to the chips and ICM finish 1st probability to give a $ value to the bounties. your tournament equity when you scoop improves 2x what your tournament equity suffers relative to folding.

A big part of PKO MTTs in the late stages is having more chips than your opponents to win their bounties. You currently cover 3/4 of remaining opponents and maintain that position when you fold.

Calling jeopardizes that position where if you call and get scooped, you have 14,630 and if quartered, you have 35,077 chips. Having a relatively large bounty, your effective fold equity is lower if you get short (14.6k is 7 BBs!)

Also, it's important to know which hands the villain shoved or called and what position this was done in. The fact that he's shoving in EP makes this less likely he's shoving T665.

For the above reasons, I think it's a pretty easy fold. This isn't the time to get out of line when you can wait a few hands/orbits to make higher EV plays such as shoving into shorter stacks or calling 20k shoves and still having 30k if you get scooped.

I agree broken_jia that it feels like a fold, but I'm willing to accept the opposite if given mathematical proof.

^In order to do the maths, you need to figure out your ICM Equities of each player. In a PKO MTT, it's the sum of A) your main prize pool EV and B) your bounty EV.

Someone wrote on 2+2 a few months ago on how to calculate this. Assume that and apply a 40% shove range and you will get your answer

No matter how big the bounty is, its extremely likely we will get another chance to win it - only one other player at the table covers villain - let alone the chances of scooping if he calls

It seems like the opportunity cost of folding hero's barely-above average strength hand is low, and gifting chips to the players yet to act when they wake up with a big hand is disastrous

i should have posted that it is +ICM EV to call rather then 'its call'.

the 'opportunity cost' argument, the lose of future opportunities when this opportunity isn't successful or the availability of better future opportunities is very complicated to quantify.

my initial 'math', specifically assigning $EV to the bounties is more imperfect then i suspected. It is still my impression that 'math' would find this to be a +EV spot to call, and so the question is concerning passing up a +EV opportunity.

as u can see this is not an easy spot . Thank you guys so far for input.

the chips add up to 210000

if starting stacks are 3000 then we are talking 70 entries

pokerstar' $82 >>>39.10/39.00/3.90

would typical present as:

$2737.0 prize pool and $2730 bounty pool


the prizelpool as posted,
the 1-6 sum to $2930, with it implied there were more 'prize' awarded,

an amount greater then it should be.
additionally, the prize jump between 4th and 3rd is the greatest jump and even the jump from 3rd to 2nd is greater than the jump from 2nd to 1st.


the bounties that remain as posted in the unconverted hh sum to $992.05

if the bounty pool was $2730 and half the bounties get passed on to bounty winner's bounty, shouldn't the bounties remaining exceed $1365, 1/2 the bounty pool.

can anyone provide me with an explanation for these apparent issues?

or did i really just totally waste a fair amount of time with completely useless data because i didn't notice the discrepancies earlier.

i wasted more time, simulated progressive bounties, and the remaining bounties don't need to sum to in excess of 1/2 the bounty pool.

it depends on how many bounty winners are eliminated.

you are correct ng, i closed down stars, and looked the HH up manually.
The mtt was gone in history and could not look up the Price pool.

Payouts (rounded) from OPR:
1. $850
2. $581
3. $397
4. $271
5. $185
6. $126
7. $126
8. $100
9. $100

think this would be a horrific ICm call even with the large bounty. even though villain is shoving into two 10bb stacks and only you cover, his 20bb shove into three guys has to be a strong range. kj32cc is like a 31% tier hand according to ProPokerTools (6 handed). ya, i think this would be a bad call. there are still bounties to be won down the road, don't throw it all away here.

It's still a math problem. Any conclusion, ngFTW?

i've nothing i wish to add to this thread.