Ok so final table off 82 HYPER

[edit:] @ buzz could u edit first hand? to put in 1k-2k [/edit]

Pay outs are huge in top top. But there were a few big bounty's too...

5 players left.

Pay outs are something like this

First 850 + bountys (so maybe like 1.3+-)
2: 650
3:495
4:280
5:150

We have chip leader at 80k chips (huge nit, only plays top top hands) (2spots to our left) (250+- bounty)
To our left we have a NEW player who has 20k and over plays hands like KK99 (rainbow). (bounty 80)
Hero has 65-68k. Has lost 3 flips in a row vs player to his left.(bounty 380)
To our right is a good reg, but plays very tight and has 18k (and 190 bounty)
2 places to our right is the villain in this hand who just was chip leader and stacked off to the huge nit. He was going all in with every A (and maybe weaker since he was going all in every 2 hands) he has 40k-45k(bounty of 350)

After he got stacked, he insta shoved again
Hero is on the button and looks at at 23jk

Chipleader:80k (bounty 250+-)
Fish:20k (bounty 80)
Reggy:20k (bounty 190)
Tiltman(villain):45-50k (bounty 350)
Hero:65-68k

Hero?

Sorry, but it's pretty hard to understand what exactly has happened in the hand. What are the blinds btw?

Intuitively this feels like a fold... just exposing too many chips with a hand that will not be very far ahead of anything and if either of the blinds get involved you hate life....

don't really have any math or anything back it up... just feels like a fold.

post the HH belg!

i think this is what you are saying happened in the hand

utg 40-45K (shoving 50% of hands, showing down a number of A***, scooped previous hand losing the chiplead, tilt??) (bty=350)
co 18K (tight, good reg) (bty=190)
btn(hero) 65k-68k (bty=380)
sb 20K (overplays high hands, new) (bty=80)
bb 80K (doubled up last hand, nit) (bty=250)


utg shoves, co folds, hero?


knowing what the blinds are seems necessary,
and for consideration what the next blind level is and how quickly it comes.


given the info, i share the opinion(w/deadpeddler) that having the blinds to act makes this a fold.
even though you call him a nit, the bb covers, and if he gets involved, you are pretty much committed to gii postflop if he doesn't shove pre.

**admittedly i'm pretty unfamilair with bounty mtts

oh *** sorry! Blinds were 1-2k

lost the hh...

Easy fold, this hand is just too weak and we have players behind, the bounty doesn't move the needle much here

When considering the possibility of collecting a bounty, you should transform that $-value into chips to get a clearer perception of how valuable it actually is.

So you start the tournament with 3000 chips and buy in with 82$ -> you get 36.6 chips per $. If you knock out the player in question you get half of his bounty, in this case half of $350, so $175. That transformed into chips is only roughly 6400 chips. You get these chips only when you scoop him, and with KJ32ds you scoop a top 50% hand roughly 34% of the time (I'm using ppt, of course). So you can assume roughly extra 2200 chips reward if you choose to gamble it against him.

I'm confused if someone with this knowledge thinks this hand is something else than a clear fold. I think I'd fold even if I somehow knew both blinds always fold.

Edit: "So you can assume roughly extra 2200 chips reward if you choose to gamble it against him" might be confusing, because it's what you get on average from gambling in this spot, i.e. no matter the result. Maybe it's more easy to understand if I had just said you get extra 6400 chips when you scoop, and you scoop roughly one out of three times. It can also be argued that getting the $ is more valuable than what it is worth in chips. Still, even if we generously assume you get like 10000 chips bonus for scooping, it adds only 5bb to your 55bb stack, when you scoop (34% of the time). So what I'm trying to say is that the bountys add much less value than they appear on first sight, especially in a split pot game.

it was really helpful how you described modeling the bounties amok

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
kcjc2s3s	53.63%	228,984	296,138	9,577	173,448	14,294
****	46.37%	184,774	294,285	9,577	117,237	14,294

was just coming back to add:
this hand is pretty clowny, even if villain is on tilt we are still probably behind his range

Just because we are behind his range doesn't mean that we should fold in this spot, especially when we are getting a good price, when taking into account the bounty (as well as the potential blinds overlay).
Being slightly behind his range isn't the most important/pertinent thing in this spot, but rather things like: the $ EV of his bounty, the players left to act behind us (their stacks and if they cover us etc), our stack and future game playability etc.

Are you saying hero shouldn't fold??

Because you seem to be implying my analysis is wrong when there is really no need for more elaborate analysis because this is such an easy decision

it really isnt an easy spot. Hense why i posted this.

I did folded at the end, but i am not sure if it was the correct fold. (they all folded, he got stacked 2 hands later with a very marginal hand, he ended up having 3bb left and we shipped his booty!Reg busted vs me too, and i got into another bleh icm spot had 12bb left sb had 8 left, i shoved AK4j rainbow, and nit called since he picked up a hand. And we busto 3th)

@ buzz could u edit first hand? to put in 1k-2k