The game is $8/$16 Omaha 8 with a half kill at The Orleans. I'm a tourist in this game; as far as I can tell, most of the other players are regulars.

In this hand, I’m the killer on the button. Two players limp, the blinds both complete, and I check my option with KJ93 (K3).

The flop comes AQT with two diamonds and one heart. SB checks; BB bets. He’s an OMC, so his range is fairly narrow in this spot (and will be clearly defined on the turn): most likely KJxx, maybe a set or some combo draw like top two pair plus the nut flush draw. An EP player calls, a MP player folds, I call, and the SB calls.

I have the nuts but it’s vulnerable, so I don’t want to raise just yet. I want to see the turn and reevaluate at that point. However, I’m wondering if I should just fold here. My only redraw is back-door hearts. If I’m up against another straight, the best-case scenario is that I win half or maybe only a quarter of the pot (if the back-door low draw gets there). And my reverse implied odds are high—I could put money in on multiple streets only to get beaten on the river.

The turn is a black 3. SB checks; BB bets. The EP player, who seems to be a solid reg, calls fairly quickly. At this point I put in a raise. I’m hoping to knock out at least one of the players who’s on a draw, to increase my equity.

The SB, who is the youngest and most loose, aggressive player in the game, tanks for a bit. He’s clearly not happy about having to call a double bet, but eventually he does. I assume that a player with top set or the nut flush draw is never folding in this spot, so I figure the SB has some combo draw that’s worse than those holdings.

I’m hoping the BB will reraise to put pressure on the EP player. But the BB looks visibly uncomfortable and makes a crying call. The EP player calls as well (no surprise there). So my turn raise didn’t get anyone to fold.

The river is another black 3, for a final board of AQT33 rainbow. Everyone checks to me. I block some full house combos with my 3, but I’m disgusted by what happened on the turn and convinced that a bet on this street would never get called by worse. So I turn over my hand. The SB mucks, the BB has the same straight, and the EP player shows A345 (I think with two small diamonds, which would explain his call on the flop), so he has a full house and scoops a monster pot.

If I hadn’t raised the turn, I assume I would’ve lost a single bet on the river (if the EP player had bet his full house, I would’ve made a crying call, and if everyone had checked to me, I probably would’ve bet). But I’m curious to know if you would’ve played any street differently.

All comments appreciated.

No. No you should not just fold the flop for 1 small bet when you flop the nuts.

Given the action I would prefer raising flop instead of turn, turn puts low draws out there as well so raise is pretty marginal against good opponents, we can get quartered on river even if a scare card doesn't hit

On flop we at least have backdoor flush draw and can knock out opponents who want to see the turn for cheap

River check is ok, though our hand is good enough to bet here sometimes in similar spots

Note: I'm not saying raising the flop is better than calling, just that raising this turn is fairly dicey

Don't fold the nuts...move down in stakes

You should definitely not the fold the flop. That's absurd. I think I would almost always raise the flop.

I mean....yeah.

Raise flop all day. This is limit, where you pound out as much value as you can while you're ahead, not pot limit where you need to worry a ton about bad turn cards, reverse implied odds, and deception.

i think every street is good.

?

Do not fold flop. You have the nuts with an unlikely but still real redraw, especially if you can see the Ace of hearts. You are only behind equity-wise to KJXdXd or KJTT/KJAA/KJQQ. KJAQ I think is similar to us in equity. Some of these hands we might have heard from pre-flop.

There are four players showing interest in this hand. How many of them can really have KJ? Even if one opponent is freerolling us, it could still be mathematically correct to get the other two to put in more money (not sure the math on this).

I ran some simulations against possible holdings, and my equity is at most 14% on this flop against three opponents (that is, three opponents who have a legitimate reason to bet or call on this flop). In fact, I can construct a worst-case scenario in which my equity is only 9%. What am I up against (potentially):
• Another KJ
• A diamond flush draw
• A set or two pairs
• A backdoor low draw
• A gutshot draw to yet another Broadway straight
• And maybe a backdoor Ace-high flush draw

That last one may be unlikely, but what if one of the flop callers has something like A346? I suspect it would be difficult to get that player to fold on any street.

Let's say the bettor has Broadway with a high diamond draw, one caller has trip Queens with a gutshot draw to Broadway, and the other caller has the aforementioned A346. In that scenario, although I'm ahead at the moment, I have the least equity of the four of us.

Of course, in the hand described, I don't know yet what the player behind me is going to do on the flop, and if I can get him to fold, that would likely increase my equity. So I will look for opportunities to raise on the flop in similar circumstances.

Thanks, everyone.

Last night a similar hand occurred in a $6/$12 game. The flop was KQJ. An EP player bet. I called with Broadway and no redraws. Three players called behind me: one had trip Kings, one had bottom two pair and a gutshot to Broadway, and the third had bottom pair and a non-nut flush draw.

The turn was a blank: the 9. The EP player bet, I raised. Much to my astonishment, the set of Kings folded (he later said he was convinced his outs were in the hands of the other two callers, and he knew the EP player would reraise, which he did), but the other two players (one with QJ plus a gutshot, the other with J9 plus a non-nut flush draw) both called. The river was another J, so both of these callers made full houses.

If they were willing to call a double bet on the turn, I don't think raising or even capping the action on the flop would have made any difference.

You're jusdging your equity against ranges that have a legitimate reason to call on the flop, but in your actual example, some of the calls were from people who didn't have a legitimate reason to call on the flop. The guy who won the hand whoe flopped one pair and a baby flush draw probably was dominated by another flush draw and shouldn't have called.

He called with a bunch of marginal backdoor equity. Such calls are sometimes reasonable for one small bet on the flop. That's the biggest reason to raise the flop. Lots of hands will have like 10% equity, perhaps made up of 5 backdoor combinations each with 2% likelihood of coming in. But getting hands with 10% equity to fold the flop is quite a good result for you.

I didn't see everyone's hand at showdown (I saw the winner's hand but didn't pay close attention to suits since he had a full house, though I think he had 4 red cards). Let's assume the hands were as follows:

Initial bettor: Broadway with no redraws (based on his discomfort when I raised the turn)
First caller: A345
Me: KJ93
Caller behind me: top two pair (I know he didn't flop a set, because if he had, he would've won)

On a flop of AQT, equities are as follows:

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...4=AQ&s=generic

I agree that the first caller's flush draw might not have been the best, but I'm not sure exactly what the bettor or the caller behind me had.

If I raise the flop and get the caller behind me to fold, my equity increases from 16.46% to 22.59%, but I don't see him folding top two pair on this flop, especially if he has something like a gutshot straight draw or flush draw to go with it.

If I can somehow get the player with A345 to fold on the flop, my equity increases to 28.90%. So I see the value of raising on the flop (before he improves to two pair plus a wheel draw)—though in this particular scenario, with this player between the initial bettor and me, I don't see him ever folding.

Interestingly, even if we give a bettor diamond draw to someone else, the player with A345 still has more equity than I do on this flop:

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...4=AQ&s=generic

I don't know how that program works, but there's gotta be something wrong with the simulation, as it gives way more equity to villain holding just the KJ than to you.

Also: does a backdoor low really come in 1/3 of the time??

The backdoor 2nd nut flush draw is what pushes folding the flop from merely bad to atrocious.

But more importantly, the "meta" leak is that you're clearly taking a few of the time honored principles of Omaha--don't go bananas with the flopped nuts if it's vulnerable and/or others could have it; always consider if you're playing for half or the whole pot--and turning them into monsters under the bed.

This can be a clue to finding other situations that fit this pattern--e.g., let's say that you wouldn't actually fold the flop in the OP, but you would fold some other marginal situation.

This seems intuitively appropriate. I don't have an intuition for if the magnitude of the difference makes sense.

The universe of all king-jacks here includes many redraws better than yours--KJ with diamonds, KJ with a backdoor low, KJ with full house outs. Of course some will have even less equity than you, since you have one weak redraw. But "KJ" includes a range of all of those.

Given OP's read that the flop bettor didn't have redraws, there are more accurate ways to specify that range in PPT, but it would require knowing or looking up how to write some complex syntax.

It should be noted here, one reason you can call to realize your marginal equity on the flop is because your implied odds are so good. If a diamond comes and you're facing a bet, you're going to fold. If the board pairs and you're facing a bet, you're going to fold. (Possible exceptions if the pot becomes huge.)

The only possibly poor IO situations are making the 2nd nut backdoor flush or (as actually happened) the turn and river pairing blanks and it getting checked to you. But you can't go far wrong with the 2nd nut flush on the button. As for the board pairing blanks, i.e. the actual hand, I would probably bet the river for thin value. There are hands you beat that will find excuses to make calls in a pretty big pot. But, as illustrated here, many full houses will timidly check so it's possible your river check is correct.

You should at least see if your hand is still the nuts by the river, which should happen about 1 in 3 times.

But it is worth keeping in mind a non nut hand can still win and can even be value bet.

If the BB didn't have any redraws, why are you giving him an incomplete hand that allows for redraws?
Why are you giving the A345 hand nut hearts? It didn't sound like he had this in your OP.

More generally, I don't understand the usefulness in running the equity assuming you are in almost the worst possible spot to judge the play on the flop when you didn't have anything close to this amount of info at the time when you made the decision. More useful would be giving the BB the full range of hands he might be the flop, and the other players random top x% hands they might call preflop.

ALL. OF. THIS. Spot on.

Perhaps to try a check raise not a plain raise , because if they are drawing as they were that is a mistake, it protects your hand your nut hand needs that. If they all check the free card protects you from better hands being 93 is total trash and a dead mans float. You didnt end up using your postion .... high only hands are for suckers and if you are the biggest suck then ....

I'd love to play in a game where you can check-raise from the button...

This flop isn't as strong of a hand as you think it is.

I'm not folding the flop, but I'm def waiting for a non flush, no board pairing turn