This.

Hey I could always be wrong, their stacks are close enough now that it might not be worth it tbh. But I'd be willing to bet that in the end it's pretty close.

Judging from your tone you seem pretty authoritative on o8 tourneys amok, what's your sn over there on stars?

i 'rate' this hand K843 outside the top half of hands i want to be dealt in this situation. therefore, I expect to be dealt a hand that i'd prefer to Gii with roughly 90% of the time in the next 4 hands. ( and remember i was in fact responding to your "not see a better in hand in the next 2-3 orbits"). (also I'm rating the hand, i'm not relying on propokertools ratings, and when i asked you to 'rate' the hand i didn't expect you to tell me how ppt rated this hand. unfortunately you didn't make your answer explicit and I can only assume by your response that you rate this hand in the top 25% of hands you could have been dealt in this situation) .

regarding that i might get the 'better hand' vs. the big stack, that's actually fine because i expect the big stack to Gii wider then the shorty.

and NO, i wouldn't be pleased about folding away my stack and increasing the stacks/ratio between me and the big stack.

Call intending to GII any flop is the same thing as GII pre though, so I wouldn't call it hideous. Call intending to fold +25% of the flops is hideous indeed.

As if you don't know? It's plo8. So we really are doing it like this, you refuse to answer any inquiry I have and you just keep asking me random, barely meaningful things? I'm just trying to understand your point of view here and you are not being helpful at all.

Amok, does the likelihood big stack might manipulate some future hands here to keep this 3 handed bubble going if I don't call here change anything in your mind to make this a call?

It's already been established that we barely lose icm-wise even if villain is actually has that 25% hand. If he is competent at all he's probably shoving up to 60 or 70% as others have said and we are profitable there. Waiting to flip it out against big stack we would need a very strong hand to compete icm-wise and we have a very short number of hands in which to get it before our stack becomes even less worrysome to the big stack.

By calling with the intention of going all in on flop no matter what instead of GII pre it's possible we might add a tiny bit of value if shorty makes a mistake and check/folds a bad-seeming flop to him since he still has nearly half his stack. At these stakes it's not as rare as you may think tbh, a lot of the people who play this have nitted it up their way through the micros. It can't really hurt us much anyway. And win or lose, at least we've ended the icm-abuse by the big stack and it's hard to put a value on that. As a bit of a bonus calling instead of GII pre makes our image appear more defensive and less aggressive, which is kinda nice when you're the mid stack. It hopefully makes them a bit less likely to steal pre and your preflop raises seem a bit stronger since they will stand out more.

Either way it's pretty grim overall, but that's life in the middle :/

It actually wouldn't hurt you too much in particular since after folding you and shorty would have almost equal stacks. If you still had a decent chip lead on shorty then yeah he can and probably will hurt you more since the bullseye will be on you mostly. Folding pre isn't terrible and definitely an option, it's just you would need a really solid read on villain and it's really hard to get one with all of the icm-abuse going on.

With that said, I wouldn't get too results-oriented on this one. I could easily see it turning into a pretty serious leak.

Not really, I mean we must assume it happens anyway. I think what matters is how wide we perceive SB raises here. 30% or 70% is a pretty significant difference.

When was that established? How? What does "25% hand" mean?

Based on what? Why do you suddenly assume he is competent? Why do you assume something "others have said" is true?

Why do we have to "flip it out against big stack" if we fold this hand?

So now you assume he is a total idiot, because it supports your opinion? What if he only check/folds hands like 2345r on a flop like KKK or even QQ9 (i.e. does non-******ed things)? Do you think both players benefit as much from seeing the flop if one has K843 and other has say 2345 or similar?

You still haven't answered any of my first 5 questions, so I'm not really expecting you to have meaningful responses to any of these either.

I'm assuming neither because we don't have any solid reads. I'm just trying to do my best to prepare for both. I've said all along if you have a fairly solid read, then yeah folding would be perfectly fine. The big stack comment was in response to ng saying he wouldn't mind the greater than 50/50 chance you take flipping with the big stack by waiting for a decent hand.

All of the other questions were pretty much answered earlier I think. The hand rankings were 6-handed and not HU though so it might not be exact.

Btw, not sure if other posters agree but I feel pretty happy defending this hand vs wider than 25% and expect agressive players to open 35-40ish

I think this is a spot where our relative chip advantage is so important that we should err on the side of defending wider

I totally agree, but to be fair I could definitely see folding it a certain % of the time also due to reads and such. Whatever exact % that is, idk lol

I was with you with this, and your earlier post, right up until your last sentence here, where you say defending wider because our chip advantage is so important. It seems the opposite.
Yes we cover him, but we want to maintain the chip advantage from the ICM p.o.v., in order to payjump. So if that's so important, then we are going to be folding slightly more than chipEV.
And of course if we were to win the hand and KO him, we're still going into HU with a big chip deficit, and with short stacks.

(Not saying that I would fold pre necessarily, just I find your last point counter-intuitive.)

This was clear to me from the get go, as indicated by my first post:

Probably nobody understood my point though, as I rarely bother to explain the obvious, unless asked to.

Added into my repertoire of "condescending" responses.

My approach here might be a little different compared to stt/mtt grinders here as I play mainly cash omaha games but icm shows

We go from icms of approx 355, 262, 241 to 355, 255, 248 immediately if we fold.

Next hand, we have additional negative expectations from our position. So expected icm after 2 hands if we fold the first is realistically something like 351, 253, 254. Now of course we have the button to look forward after but being tied for 2nd seems like such an undesireable spot to me anyway that you can probably make a good case for calling even with a slightly negative expectation. And of course if we win and chip up to 110k skill advantage and switching to hu could create additional positive expectations.

I would call almost automatically here so good posters advocating a fold gives me some pause and makes me want to reconsider if I am playing looser than optimal in this type of spot, and if so by how much.



Ng has the difference of calling vs shoving be about $3 max given reasonable ranges, not even accounting for the 10% or so of flops we can fold playing optimally. So again, worse case we are losing about $3 in icm, which we can reasonably expect to offset by more favourable conditions hu in many circumstances.

villains potting range must be extremely wide for me to be considering anything other than folding here so in my experience in this spot hero should almost always be folding.

Hero has apparently been folding to this point so getting it in with this hand seems very wrong after SB pots it.

moni-

from your 1st post
and from your recent post
seems to me you are reading the hand history differently then me. if both sb and hero consistently fold to the bigstack hero doesn't lose his chip advantage over the shorty.

btw, just pointing it out to be helpful, i don't think i'm adding to the discussion at all

you know what shove it, amok, lets spread bad game play , and take down the fishes lol

Heya neighbor, I agree that is one possible line to take. After being involved in the "discussion" ITT I feel it might be the GTO-line.

I appreciate your always trying steer me away from the fishy lines that I want to take Amok..

am i the onyl one in the boat of attack wide call tight?

Not sure why you're frustrated at/with animosity to me, as I was replying to someone/something else.
I thought that you basically said that, but I wanted to hear Moni's reasoning for what they said.

I am not frustrated with you. Sorry for the confusion.

A lot of dick waving ITT, not much maths. This is purely a maths question.

I got fold > call > shove but what do I know. Don't see call as worse than shove when there's some number that I'd have to think about and don't want to % of boards I'm not putting another chip in and opponent is very likely allin on the flop no matter the board. Maybe a Q99 he could c/f but we want him to do that so...

I don't use ICM #'s so anything I think there on the chip profit/$ profit line just gets ignored anyway. I simply don't think it's $ profit on this one.