Two Plus Two Poker Forums Essential O8 Statistics
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Video Directory TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

 Omaha/8 Discussions of Omaha High-Low Split (Eight or Better) Poker.

 03-02-2017, 08:34 PM #1 leavesofliberty Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: away from my pc Posts: 5,616 Essential O8 Statistics I've been reading books on O8, but there aren't really any statistical tables like Hold'em. I'd think the math is even more important the more complex the game is, and I am surprised there isn't much math that's published. What do I need to know math-wise that I don't know with Hold'em? For example odds of a runner-runner low coming. Odds of A2 hands, Odds of A3 hands, etc. It'll make pre-flop decisions easier. Odds of three broadways. I can do all these calculations of course. I am wondering if there's a resource.
 03-02-2017, 10:15 PM #2 lotuspod2 adept     Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: discord.gg/pWc7aMs - Poker Group Posts: 787 Re: Essential O8 Statistics http://www.propokertools.com/simulations For more advanced stuff you'll need to use PQL though, which is on the same site. Read the guides there and if you have any further questions about it just post them here.
 03-05-2017, 06:56 PM #3 networth veteran   Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: sochi Posts: 2,190 Re: Essential O8 Statistics Simple and important math. I should say approximations since Buzz isn't here to correct me with exact numbers. If two low on the flop 25% no low possible by river. If one low on the flop 25% low possible by the river.
 03-05-2017, 08:35 PM #4 NickMPK Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 9,290 Re: Essential O8 Statistics And the chance of being dealt A2 (or any specific combination of two different cards) is 6.4% This might help OP: http://www.o8poker.com/Strategy/keypercent.php
03-14-2017, 02:12 AM   #5
agamblerthen
enthusiast

Join Date: May 2011
Location: SF
Posts: 89
Re: Essential O8 Statistics

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NickMPK And the chance of being dealt A2 (or any specific combination of two different cards) is 6.4% This might help OP: http://www.o8poker.com/Strategy/keypercent.php
Thank you for that link—very helpful. I've always wondered about a few of those, like the chance that someone else has A2 when I do (~36%).

But what if I have AA2x or A22x—what's the chance that someone else has A2 then?

If I have A3, the chance that someone else has A2 is ~52%. But what if I have AA3x, or even AAA3—what are the chances that someone else has A2 then?

Once I raised pre with AAA3 and sure enough someone beat me for the low with A2. And I recall a handful of times when I've raised pre with hands like AA34ds, AA35ss, or AA3Jds only to find myself up against an A2 for the low. Now I wonder if I'm overvaluing these AA3x hands preflop.

03-14-2017, 12:04 PM   #6
ngFTW
journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 353
Re: Essential O8 Statistics

Quote:
 Originally Posted by agamblerthen Thank you for that link—very helpful. I've always wondered about a few of those, like the chance that someone else has A2 when I do (~36%).
to be clear, the ~36% chance is at least 1 of the other 9 players that were dealt cards was dealt A2**. ~3.5% of the time its 2 players that are also dealt A2**, and ofc, when fewer players are dealt cards the probability decreases, ie. when 9 handed rather than 10 handed its ~32.4%.

Quote:
 But what if I have AA2x or A22x—what's the chance that someone else has A2 then?
when hero holds AA2 or A22 it's ~25.6% at least 1 of the other 9 players that were dealt cards was dealt A2**. ~1.25% of the time its 2 players that are also dealt A2**. decreases to ~23% when 9 handed.

Quote:
 If I have A3, the chance that someone else has A2 is ~52%. But what if I have AA3x, or even AAA3—what are the chances that someone else has A2 then?

simulation gives me the result ~44.6% and not ~52% as the probability that at least 1 player was dealt A2 when hero's holding A3 and 9 other players were dealt cards.

when hero holds AA3 the probability decreases to ~32.6%.
Quote:
 Once I raised pre with AAA3 and sure enough someone beat me for the low with A2. And I recall a handful of times when I've raised pre with hands like AA34ds, AA35ss, or AA3Jds only to find myself up against an A2 for the low. Now I wonder if I'm overvaluing these AA3x hands preflop.
i don't think its possible to overvalue AA3*. you can play it poorly postflop.

 03-14-2017, 03:40 PM #7 pokerodox The Situation     Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: can never leave Posts: 4,015 Re: Essential O8 Statistics Nevermind. I miscounted (to four).
03-15-2017, 01:37 AM   #8
agamblerthen
enthusiast

Join Date: May 2011
Location: SF
Posts: 89
Re: Essential O8 Statistics

Thank you for running those simulations and giving such a detailed response!

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ngFTW i don't think its possible to overvalue AA3*. you can play it poorly postflop.
Good point. AA3* with a suited Ace has a rank of 1.04, but that doesn't mean it's a ticket to showdown. I still have to play poker, as Buzz liked to say.

03-27-2017, 01:29 PM   #9
nuggetz87
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 15,337
Re: Essential O8 Statistics

Quote:
 Originally Posted by agamblerthen But what if I have AA2x or A22x—what's the chance that someone else has A2 then?
Quote:
 Originally Posted by ngFTW when hero holds AA2 or A22 it's ~25.6% at least 1 of the other 9 players that were dealt cards was dealt A2**. ~1.25% of the time its 2 players that are also dealt A2**. decreases to ~23% when 9 handed.
these are good to know, but what you're really interested in is the conditional probability - the probability that another player holds A2 GIVEN that they VPIP preflop.

if you raise AAA3 and everyone folds, it's pretty safe to say nobody else had A2. if you raise AAA3 and there's a call and a reraise, it's much more likely A2 is out there somewhere.

you need to look at the range of hands your opponents will play and THEN apply the card removal to see what % of the time they have A2.

 03-28-2017, 04:07 PM #10 P1nkFreud stranger   Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 6 Re: Essential O8 Statistics Could you show how you calculate this? Cheers
 04-02-2017, 01:30 AM #11 Nut Nut newbie   Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 30 Re: Essential O8 Statistics If you hold AAA3, the odds of one your opponents holding holding A2 is 17.4%, assuming a 9 handed game. The other 8 players hold 32 cards in their hand out of the 48 remaining so the odds of one them being dealt the ace is 2/3. In the event that one of them gets the ace, they get three cracks at one of the deuces. This is 4/47 + 4/46 + 4/45 or 26.1%. 26.1% * 2/3 = 17.4%. The odds of them catching Ax2x would be about 4.3%.
 04-06-2017, 03:58 AM #12 doctorflush grinder   Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 406 Re: Essential O8 Statistics Thanks for the link
 06-03-2017, 02:01 PM #13 NLOmahaHL newbie   Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 32 Re: Essential O8 Statistics Those are great resources. How often are my winning percentages accurate knowing all of these dead cards? If I have As2sJh3h with board 4h5cTdQs I am ~1/6 to scoop with the K or 2, if you're sure nobody is drawing with 36. I am ~2/5 to get half or hopefully not a quarter. What is a fair way to estimate my outs that are unfortunately dead because they were dealt to someone else. Should I take 2/3 of my percentages? On the flip side!!!, What swing in the percentages could I expect if I optimistically think nobody was dealt my outs? The inverse 3/2!?!
06-04-2017, 07:44 AM   #14
belg_owner
old hand

Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,216
Re: Essential O8 Statistics

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NLOmahaHL Those are great resources. How often are my winning percentages accurate knowing all of these dead cards? If I have As2sJh3h with board 4h5cTdQs I am ~1/6 to scoop with the K or 2, if you're sure nobody is drawing with 36. I am ~2/5 to get half or hopefully not a quarter. What is a fair way to estimate my outs that are unfortunately dead because they were dealt to someone else. Should I take 2/3 of my percentages? On the flip side!!!, What swing in the percentages could I expect if I optimistically think nobody was dealt my outs? The inverse 3/2!?!

That depends on what player(and howmany are in the hand) you are playing.And how the action went.
But don't worry, this is a snap get it in spot vs 85% of the players.

Vs a huge nit i you can already take the A & 2 low cards (maybe just one)
You can pot it here hoping he folds his low draw, but most players dont tend to fold if they have a low draw (or any kind of low).

Vs a random/fishy player i count there are some high outs gone. But there is more fold equity vs this player then there will be vs the 'nit'.

In total there are 16 different players.

06-04-2017, 07:10 PM   #15
FRGCardinal
veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: BOO YA, BABY! TWO PAIR!
Posts: 2,002
Re: Essential O8 Statistics

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Nut Nut If you hold AAA3, the odds of one your opponents holding holding A2 is 17.4%, assuming a 9 handed game. The other 8 players hold 32 cards in their hand out of the 48 remaining so the odds of one them being dealt the ace is 2/3. In the event that one of them gets the ace, they get three cracks at one of the deuces. This is 4/47 + 4/46 + 4/45 or 26.1%. 26.1% * 2/3 = 17.4%. The odds of them catching Ax2x would be about 4.3%.

Sorry. Couldn't help myself.
But now that I got that gag out of the way, the actual, simplified calculation for what you're trying to compute is to take the complement of the probability that each player does NOT find a deuce in their three other cards, much as you do when computing the likelihood of a 3rd flush card hitting the board, post flop. Doing additive probability of a compound event overcounts the instances where multiple deuces find their way into the hand.
Try 1 - (43/47 * 42/46 * 41/45) = 23.9%

The rest is fine.
23.9% * 2/3 = 15.9%

06-27-2017, 03:03 PM   #16
gergery
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,589
Re: Essential O8 Statistics

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NickMPK This might help OP: http://www.o8poker.com/Strategy/keypercent.php
That site's terrible. You should ignore it.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Two Plus Two     Two Plus Two Magazine Forum     The Best of Two Plus Two     The Two Plus Two Bonus Program     Two Plus Two Pokercast     Two Plus Two Videos     Marketplace         General Marketplace         Staking - Offering Stakes         Staking - Seeking Stakes         Staking - Selling Shares - Online         Staking - Selling Shares - Live         Staking Rails         Transaction Feedback & Disputes     Commercial Marketplace     Staking - Offering Stakes     About the Forums Fantasy Sports     Fantasy Sports         Sporting Events General Poker Discussion     Beginners Questions     Live Casino Poker         Poker Venues         Regional Communities     Poker Goals & Challenges     Books and Publications     Poker Theory     Poker Tells/Behavior, hosted by: Zachary Elwood     News, Views, and Gossip     Twitch - Watch and Discuss Live Online Poker     Televised Poker     Home Poker     Poker Legislation & PPA Discussion hosted by Rich Muny     That's What She Said!     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Coaching/Training     Coaching Advice     Cash Game Poker Coach Listings     Tournament/SNG Poker Coach Listings International Forums     Deutsch         BBV [German]     Français     Two Plus Two en Espańol No Limit Hold'em     Medium-High Stakes PL/NL     Micro-Small Stakes PL/NL     Medium-High Stakes Full Ring     Micro-Small Stakes Full Ring     Heads Up NL     Live Low-stakes NL Limit Texas Hold'em     Mid-High Stakes Limit     Micro-Small Stakes Limit Tournament Poker     STT Strategy     Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos     Mid-High Stakes MTT     Small Stakes MTT     MTT Community     MTTc - Live         WPT.com Other Poker     High Stakes PL Omaha     Small Stakes PL Omaha     Omaha/8     Stud     Draw and Other Poker General Gambling     Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.     Probability     Psychology     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games Internet Poker     Internet Poker         Winning Poker Network         nj.partypoker.com         Global Poker     Commercial Software     Software         Commercial Software         Free Software     nj.partypoker.com         WPT.com 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics         OOTV         Game of Thrones     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     EDF     Las Vegas Lifestyle     BBV4Life         omg omg omg     House of Blogs Sports and Games     Sporting Events         Single-Team Season Threads         Fantasy Sports     Wrestling     Golf     Pool, Snooker, and Billiards     Chess and Other Board Games     Video Games         League of Legends         Hearthstone     Puzzles and Other Games Other Topics     Politics         Economics     Business, Finance, and Investing     Travel     Science, Math, and Philosophy     History     Religion, God, and Theology     Health and Fitness     Student Life     The Studio     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Programming

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:36 AM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top