I am dealt the A♣ 4♥ T♥ 9♣ in late position. A few players limp, I limp, the button raises to $26, the first limper moves all-in for a short $40, an above average player (Needles) calls, I call, the button calls. The flop bring us the A♠ 9♥ 5♥. Needles checks, I bet $50, the button calls, and Needles check raises to $200. Effective stacks are ~$700, the button is clearly folding, but she only has about $150 anyway.

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As played fold pre based on the action. Are you really trying to hit 23x on the flop vs players that appear to have your range crushed preflop?

Yeah, looks like a clear fold. Got caugt limping, thank god you didn't get frisky and try to squeeze from late position.

they get all my money if they deal this kind of stuff

sound like fun game btw

you have also backdoor low draw this is good stuff man

a1094 has no low draw on a95 multiway OMB... What you been smoking?

Just to state the obvious - 2 3 gives us the nut low so omb is right about the backdoor low draw.

Getin I think.

But for a live 4 on a wheel board?? Good luck making money with that in a PL game.

it suprise you how much % extra it can give you vs the hand that has hero beat
but yeaah what do i know right i just be one of best player in world.
Good luck making money vs me

My bad. Forgot to check your credentials. Clearly the play is to stack off to a check/raise with two pair + medium flush draw and a backdoor low draw. [/thread]

Not excited about my chances of course but the low draw does exist. That said not really wanting to fold that flop.

with the 4

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

5,005,280 trials (Exhaustive)

board: a95

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ac4sts9c	44.40%	1,519,446	2,385,126	284,987	455,846	77,490
a:ass	55.60%	2,059,764	2,335,167	284,987	1,655,484	77,490

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

1,002,040 trials (Exhaustive)

board: a95

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ac4sts9c	39.89%	222,492	536,972	30,320	25,893	13,851
(a23,a24,a26,a34,a36):ass	60.11%	418,325	434,748	30,320	622,174	13,851

without the 4 (its a Q)

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

5,005,280 trials (Exhaustive)

board: a95

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
acqsts9c	42.28%	1,454,016	2,531,504	289,041	0	0
as:ass	57.72%	2,184,735	2,184,735	289,041	2,287,800	0

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

1,195,560 trials (Exhaustive)

board: a95

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
acqsts9c	39.24%	261,330	651,885	34,355	0	0
(a23,a24,a26,a34,a36):ass	60.76%	509,320	509,320	34,355	815,140	0

can you share with us what hand it is that you think has hero beat where the 4 makes a significant % difference. Thx


I'm not advocating folding, and i'm not advocating calling/getting it in, i'm not posting an opinion on what hero should do. I'm posting because i want to see it demonstrated how holding the 4s significantly improves that hand at showdown.

I don't know as how I can demonstrate how holding the 4 significantly improves the hand at showdown... and I'm not advocating anything... just to note that if the turn/river has a deuce plus another low card, Hero has a live four. It could be Needles doesn't have a live trey. Same thing to a lesser extent if the turn/river has a three plus another low card.

Hero needs a deuce plus a trey for the nuts, and that's unlikely, 16/990=~1.6%, but Hero may not need the nuts for a back door low here. Hero makes a back-door low here (16+8*12)/990=11.3%.

It's not much, but neither is it nothing.

Buzz

i'm curious why not (20*16/2)/990 =16.16%.

making a backdoor low and making a winning backdoor low are different.
if the villain has the nut flush draw and is ahead on the flop ( that is range is As*s** and flop equity >.501) hero makes the winning low <7%, and ties low <2%, so at best the low draw from the 4 contributes 4% equity.

But I'd still like to know the hand (range) that OMB is thinking about so that i can be suprised by" how much % extra it can give"

I didn't include lows made with 67, 68, or 78. My thinking is Hero specifically wants at least a deuce plus another low card (or possibly at least a trey plus another low card) for a possible winning backdoor low.

Agreed. But against one opponent, Hero may not need the nuts.

I agree drawing for a live four for low and a ten-high flush for high is weak.

I don't think you're going to be surprised.

Buzz

i think your calculations shows my point already but to more extreem
if villian has aaxx and you change the 4 to a 10 you have 0% equity with the 4 you have 20%+
in decision making that could be close few % more is huge. you change the 4 to higher flushdraw and i think you underestimate the backdoor streat value extra % it can give you with the Q

when you change hero's hand substituting a Ten for the 4s, the ten you substitute removes hero from having a flush draw. additionally you remove hero's chance of a wheel, the straight being a better higher then an unimproved set.

when you give villian the range AA, in this situation the AA is nearly 38% a spade flush draw, 62% no spade flush draw.

Consequently substituting a T for the 4s loses equity mostly from losing the flush draw against a range where making the flush makes a winner and not equity from the backdoor low.



you can have hero holding the 4 hearts rather then 4 spades and then make the comparison by substitute the Ten hearts for the 4 hearts, which removes the flush component and see the equity difference as close to 7% and not the 20%. however the 7% equity is not all backdoor low equity, 1/2 the equity is straight wins high.

you make sense i think only think we disagree on if that i say 7% is substaniol and you think it nothing. And i did not say it was huge i only say people underestimate this

The numbers might not be very accurate either, those sims were assuming a small slice of the top end range for villain. We hold an ace, another one is on the board, there was a raiser, a small all-in, villain only just called, so why are we putting them 100% on aa or even a in our sims?

my point yes
to fold here topic started need to put villian on veryy narow range but even then you have decent equity 1 of the reason that your 4 give some % in backdoor stuff

maybe we will get to play against each other someday