Still learning O8 myself. I tend to limp this kind of hand upfront. In tougher games, I'm confused as to whether we should be playing A3xx from EP.
I bet this turn. It's true that getting raised sucks, especially if it knocks out others that can pad our draw. But I'd argue getting raised isn't the end of the world, as the raiser may protect our low draw.
Betting may also fold out some hands better than ours. Dry AA/KK, bottom two pair, hands like 65xx with a pair. If one player calls, I'd consider bluffing all rivers.
Betting also disguises our turn-betting range. Since we're not concerned about balancing multiway, the main goal is to get our villains to misinterpret our hand. Smaller clubs may complete their flush on the river and bet into us, for example, and naked A3xx may fold for fear of drawing against A2. FWIW, I wouldn't bet a naked Ac3cxx or Ac2cxx on the turn, as then our turn betting range starts polarizing to draws; our equity would also just not be great enough to warrant betting.
I did a calculation of our equity based on the following assumptions:
-We scoop any high clubs
-We win high with any other club
-We have the best high hand 50% of the time a non club an 8, 6, or 5 comes with our non-nut straight. And 50% of the time that we have the best high hand, someone else has the same combination so we chop the high.
Seems highly pessimistic. Betting should also get a lot of these dominating straight draws to fold some of the time.
I gave the BB and LAG top 50% hands, I gave the good player a stronger range including some hi-focused hands. I also excluded AAwheel hands since they are automatic raises.
Not adjusting for flop action the odds of 1 or more player having
A2: 38.5%
One or more players sharing Hero's A3
~30.1%
2: 28%
3: 2.1%
4: .02%
In practice, we should be able to discount a certain number of A2 and A3 hands based on the lack of raises and Hero's low equity will be noticeably higher.
