villain - aggressive regular. honestly not sure if he is a winner in the game. he has huge swings but is good at nlhe tournaments. probably has $500k in tourney winnings over the last few years. recently won the $1100 main event at a regional series. saw him playing a lot bigger at the rio this summer. playing 5/10/25 plo and 10/25 big o at venetian.

hero (bb) - $1300 - A2238
villain (co) - covers

preflop:

2 limps, villain limps, sb checks, we raise to $40. one limper calls, villain calls.

flop: $140 - 3 players

Q 9 2
we bet $100. limper folds, villain calls.

turn: $340 - heads up

8
we check, villain bets $200, we call. (7d, 6d, 5d, 4d we pot?)

river: $740 - heads up

9
hero??

we improve, but i'm not sure that's a good thing with all of our other draws having bricked out.

b/f $350?
c/c what i expect to be a pot sized bet as this villain is very rarely checking back here?

Really tough spot, but I think you have to c/c. Your hand will look like a full house so your only realistic hope of getting called by a worse hand is JT. I think that is too thin to value bet. Because he is aggressive he'll likely bluff if he was making a position play/floating the flop and he might bet JT thin hoping you call with a naked 9 or AA with missed diamond draw.

I don't think betting this hand on the river makes any sense. I also think you should give serious thought to betting turn, as you are 50-50 against a random JT i.e. can easily stand the heat.

Why do you think villain is very rarely checking behind? I think it's the best action with the hand he is representing on the turn, which should be the majority of his range. If you think he will value bet JT with a big sizing along with his boats it's a clear check-call.

i agree, i should have bet the turn and taken the initiative.

just having played with him a lot, i know that c/c the turn, check the river makes him bet the river a lot. this can often be used against him because you can make him hang himself, but i'm not sure this is spot. i think top 2p is very much within his range.

But with that read checking is clearly superior to betting. If you think he gives out some sizing tells, you might even fold to some sizing and call to another.

yeah, that makes sense. i guess i reasoned incorrectly that if i bet i never get raised by worse... but then again its fairly unlikely that worse calls either.

c/c seems so much better in retrospect

Also, worst case we're still 45/55 against A3JTx. I'd discount QTJ9x given his flat on the flop.

I like a turn bet, c/c river. Are we ever C/F to a river pot bet against select villains?

there are definitely people that we should c/f this hand to on the river.

This comment strikes me as a bit irrational, maybe due to Hero seeing him bet big in many spots with a polarized range. I think here JT is a big part of his range and I'd assume he's checking it back nearly 100% of the time, or if he chooses to have it in his value bet range a pot sized bet feels excessive.

In this way b/f makes some sense, but having a bet small range in Hero's shoes leads to other issues, like weakening your checks, meaning you make his bluffs more profitable.

i'd bet/fold 400+

very likely he is not folding j10 so get good value.

bet the turn,
check raise the turn as played.

What are we possibly scared of? Basically flipping against A4KJT - haven't run the equities but we could be a little bit ahead or a little bit behind depending on whether they had blockers and full house outs.
Especially when you are OOP and first to act on the river.

As played river can be a check call or bet call or bet fold it is read dependent. Are there more bluffs or more JT hero calls in his range here? I'm going with more bluffs in this case although its close and vote for check/call

interesting hand and thanks for sharing but unfortunately I don't think you took the best line
bet the turn,
check bomb the turn as played.

What are we possibly scared of? Basically flipping against A4KJT - haven't run the equities but we could be a little bit ahead or a little bit behind depending on whether they had blockers and full house outs.
Especially when you are OOP and first to act on the river.

As played river can be a check call or bet call or bet fold it is read dependent. Are there more bluffs or more JT hero calls in his range here? I'm going with more bluffs in this case although its close and vote for check/call. Villain might bet JT if aggressive enough. Pretty much can't find the fold button here, especially with the 8 blocker.

For high Villain could have one or more of various two-card combinations.
JT
Q9
QQ
are all possible and pertinent here. (99 is unlikely).
From what we can see, there are four missing jacks, four missing tens, three missing queens and two missing nines.
Thus there are (4*4)XYZ ways he could have a jack and a ten, and
(3*2+3)XYZ ways he could have a queen plus a nine or two queens.

That's admittedly a simplistic approach, but he might bet any of those hands the same as he has bet his hand. Since he's roughly 16:9 more likely to have (JT)XYZ, I'd play him for probably (JTXYZ) or nothing.

So long as we don't fold, the money already in the pot belongs to whomever has the better hand at the showdown. We're admittedly going to take it on the chin if he has a higher full house. But assuming he doesn't have a better full house, what is the best way to get more money from him on the river?

Given that he's aggressive, I like check/calling on the river to induce a bluff.

I like a turn bet too. But considering that you already checked the turn, I think you just have a call. I think he probably does have (JT)XYZ.

Buzz

what hand can he have that calls $100 on the flop and can bluff the river?

imo he didnt play it like he had a set, he bet when a straight came in when 2 pair would've checked, his hand is pretty much a straight.

bet river for value around $350-$400. puke if he raises and probably fold!

Results:

Hero bets $350. Villain pots it. We fold.