Situation: Very loose 4/8 table with a half kill (though kill is not in play this hand). Players are playing very straight forward (players are regularly betting their hands when they have them, very little if any bluffing, etc.) Pre-flop raising is rare as some players say they never raise pre-flop while others nag a player who might raise and lose or fold a pot after raising pre-flop. Two villains, one in the BB and one in middle position are particularly loose and have won a couple large pots recently.

Hero is on button with A56T

Pre-flop action: All players call to hero. Hero calls, SB completes and BB checks.

Flop: 48T

Flop action: All players check to hero who bets. SB folds, BB calls, two early position calls, MP villain calls, cutoff calls.

Turn: 8

Turn action: All players check to hero who bets. Only BB and middle position villain call.

River: K

Both players check to Hero.



Questions:

1. I know this is generally a trash hand, but my thought was if all these other players are calling, I'm getting great odds with position and I'm unlikely to get raised by the blinds. Was this call okay?

2. Flop bet was to get money in pot if I hit, as my lo is most likely not going to be good if it's a small heart, so I want to get some money in the pot in case I hit. Was this bet okay?

3. Turn pairs the board, but since most players are straightforward, my thinking is they'll bet out if they hit the 8 here. When they don't, my semi-bluff with the heart draw, a weak low draw and top pair might get out a slightly better low (like 23) or an overpair like JJ. Was this bet okay or a bit overzealous having seen a bad card?

4. When both players check, should this be bet for value? Or just checked behind in case I'm getting sandbagged?

I don't think it's a trash hand. (It's not a premium hand either). You'd rather the six be a lower rank and the ten be a higher rank, but I think the hand is playable. I like the pre-flop call... or you could raise. It's not clear to me exactly how many opponents you have and that may be pertinent.

Nut heart draw, top pair, bad low draw. Yes, the bet is fine. Call it a semi-bluff for lack of a better term.

Both. (OK and a bit overzealous). How likely one of your opponents is to have an eight is partially dependent on exactly how many opponents you have. And someone might not bet an eight if he thinks you'll bet for him.

4. When both players check, should this be bet for value? Or just checked behind in case I'm getting sandbagged?[/QUOTE]I don't know. I think it's opponent dependent.

Buzz

Apologies. First post on here for hands so forgot some minor details. It's a full table (ten people) so this is a family pot essentially. This led me to call here. With just a couple limpers, I would think I would be in trouble. Against just the blinds, a raise would probably be in order. It's not a terrible hand now that I think about it, but it's not ideal. I might have been too harsh calling it trash.

So on turn, five of the original nine opponents remain. My thought process here was...if someone has the 8, they'd want to bet to trap lo draws in in case they don't get there. Because nobody bet, my flush draw is probably still alive, and perhaps my tens are best. It's also a bet to knock out someone who might have, say 223X or 99JX in case a card completes my flush draw, but also gives them a boat. However, I also open up the field to a check raise (in which case, I almost certainly have to fold with no real outs.)

In the actual hand, I ended up checking behind, figuring that if they had lo draws, they wouldn't call anyway, whereas if they had a weak boat, they'd check call and I'd cost myself $8. BB had a weaker flush and Middle position had an 8 but no pair, making my nut flush best. I'm pretty sure they both would have called had I bet the river based on their history, so wanted to ask if my play was okay. (Obviously, based on The Theory of Poker, it's the wrong play, but figured I would see if it's reasonable.)

I have another hand I'd like analysis on from the same session with middle position villain if you'd care to see.

bet the river and the whole hand would be standard

raising pre-flop can also be profitable


also: we should not be too worried about boats on the river with villains checking the turn, only k8 and kk combos if villain are competent and they should be discounted given the play

wp if you bet the riv

River sounds like a trivial b/f as played. Villains have plenty of incentive to call with a worse flush, an 8, or even a K in the hope of picking off some busted A2 low draw, and they really shouldn't have a boat here often at all.

I definitely bet flop, and bet river as played. I usually wouldn't bet the turn, but I do like your reasons for doing so.

So I gather 9 opponents saw the flop, and 5 opponents saw the board have a pair of eights on the turn.

When those five opponents saw the pair of eights, they held 20 cards between them.

After the turn, you can see 2 eights and 6 other cards. Thus there are 2 missing eights and 42 missing other cards.

If we choose 20 cards at random from a group of 44 cards containing 2 eights, the probability of at least one eight is
P=1-C(42,20)/C(44,20)
P=1-24*23/44/43=0.708

In other words, it's more than likely, about 7 to 3, that if we randomly chose 20 of the missing 44 cards, at least one eight would be included in the 20 cards. With nothing else to go on, after the turn, but before the third betting round, I think it's roughly 7 to 3 at least one of your opponents has at least one eight.

Many, but not all opponents, would bet the turn if they held and eight. When nobody bets it looks a bit like maybe both opponents are primarily drawing for low.

My thinking is Hero cannot fold to a check/raise. And so long as Hero doesn't fold, if hero has the best hand, the money already in the pot belongs to Hero. If Hero bets, and if an opponent has a full house, Hero will lose two bets on the river. If Hero bets and one opponent calls without a full house, Hero wins one bet. So basically, by betting Hero is risking two bets to possibly win one bet.

Do you think it's twice as likely neither opponent has a full house than at least one of them has a full house?

KK**, TT**, 44**, 8K**, 8T**, 84**

I think it's close. In a cash game, I probably bet it. In a tournament, I probably check.

My thoughts pretty much exactly. I assume you call preflop too, which is marginal but fine I think. Turn is one of those spots where I'm not sure what to do.

Calling preflop is not marginal

Any suited ace wheel in good position is +ev

I agree this is an easy call preflop. Given the passivity of the game and the huge number of opponents, I think you can call almost any suited Ace here.

And I would bet the river. It is true that with everyone seeing the flop, it is combinatorically somewhat likely that someone will have a full house (probably more than 1/3). However, the majority of these combinations made a full house on the turn, and yet none of your opponents bet or raised the turn. If someone did make a full house on the turn, they should probably raise it there to get value from the low draws and the flush draws, since they will not get value on the river if these draws brick out. And if your opponents are so passive that they will not bet an underfull on the turn, perhaps they will not even raise them on the river.

River is a trivially easy value bet. If you did not check, NH.

Yup, you're right. I missed out on probably at least one big bet from the smaller flush and perhaps two if the unpaired 8 might have called.

If interested in posting thoughts on another hand with the same villain (and another pair of 8s), here is another. Same table, full table, etc.

Situation: Kill pot hand. Last hand, one of the particularly loose villains had missed what he called a big draw (He didn't say exactly what he had, but said audibly "I had a million outs." Villain had been known to say this with as little as three pairs) and because two players had been jamming, had lost a significant amount of chips so was presumably steaming.

Hero is in middle position with: AA4J

Pre-Flop: One early position player calls, hero calls, another middle position call, cutoff calls, villain on button raises, SB folds, BB calls, all others call.

Flop: 28K

Flop play: All check to villain who bets. BB folds, Early position calls, Hero calls, middle position behind folds, and cutoff calls.

Turn: T

Turn: All players check to villain who bets. Early position and hero calls.

River: 8

River play: Early position checks, hero checks, villain bets, early position folds. Hero calls.

Questions here:

1. Should this have been a raise pre-flop from middle position? I've heard varying opinions, and at a table this loose, I'm not sure it would have limited the field as I wanted. (Perhaps it would have since the kill was in play and players tend to respect the kill a bit more in hindsight.)

2. My thinking on the flop was an overpair, backdoor nut flush draw, second nut low draw. Not great draws or a great hand, but at least enough to take a card off. Was this a loose call? Should I have bet instead?

3. Obviously, turn card gives me quite a few outs for broadway and the nut flush draw. Should I have bet here?

4. River play I feel was a standard check call since the pot was too big to fold, but if I'm wrong, let me know.

I definitely raise ths preflop, and if not raised I probably keep the initiative and bet every street for value, assuming no more than 4 players see the flop.

It's a kill pot. If no one had called in front of you, I think it's an automatic raise. Even though one player has, I think this hand (two aces, single suited with a wheel card and a jack) is still good enough to warrant a raise with. Since you have two aces, there are only two left for everyone else to have, and depending on your read of the EP player, I would guess that he has one of them (would you call from EP in a kill pot without at least A2 or A3?)

So, I would raise forcing the other players to put in 2 bets cold and try to buy the button. I guess you could call if you think that a raise won't knock out a lot of players, but I still greatly prefer a raise here.

I'm not really sure what the best play is here, but I'm fine with the check. Since the pot is quite large at this point, it's unlikely that your bet will knock many players out. The board is not connected at all, so your aces might be good here but somebody could easily have two pair. EP checked, so he could still easily have A2, I think if he had A3 he might have bet to protect his low draw. I'm still putting him on a low draw. I like calling Villian's bet.

After EP checks again, I'm almost certain he has the nut low draw or close to it. I really like betting here. You have Aces, which could still be good at this point (probably not) but you also have the nut flush draw, and any Q gives you the nut straight. You have the 2nd nut low, and any 3 gives you the nut low. You know Villian has been betting every street, so you know he might raise you. This is good, you can use it to your advantage. If he does, this would force the EP player to call two bets cold, and if he is only drawing to the nut low (which I think he is) then he should fold. Should EP fold, your low is much more valuable, because if you hit your high hand on the river you will probably just scoop, but if a low does come then it's hard for villain to have you beat both ways.

Not a great river, but if Villian was on two pair (without an 8) then you have him beat with your Aces and 8s. I'm thinking he was either on trips, two-pair, or a straight draw. The EP player check-folded, so we were correct in that he was just drawing to the low. I would check to the villain and just call if he bets.

This hand is an autoraise imo. Don't worry about limiting the field. With the suited Ace and a well coordinated hand, this hand plays well in ALL fields.

As played, easy flop call. The pot is large, you can have the best hand, you can turn the nut high or low, or the nutflush draw. As far as betting or checking, I think you should be WAY more likely to bet on a K82 board than a K83 board. On a K82 board, the PFR could easily be counterfeited so he may not bet himself, and your hand is good enough where you want to make sure money goes into the pot (you don't care if other people call and if some people fold that's great too). On a K83 board, it's so likely that the PFR will bet if checked too, that I doubt it matters if you bet yourself. Money is going in no matter what you do. Betting or checking is fine with me in that hypothetical spot.

I don't think it mattes much, but if you have seen this guy take a lot of free cards on the turn with his nut draws, then I prefer a bet.

Yep, autocall riv. Just remember tho that there are alot of nitty bettors in this game, and what that means is when people actually DO bet the river in that spot their range is very tight, so check/calling with marginals can be a fool's errand (even in large pots). Against those types you're better off donking the river when you have a hand you deem is strong enough to check/call, thus changing this dynamic in your favor since the villain's calling range will always be wider than their betting range. The drawback to this strategy is that you could get raised, but if you choose your opponent's wisely, i.e. attacking nit bettors who by definition don't bluff or value bet enough, it will be an easy bet/fold if raised. The corollary being: if it's not an easy bet/fold, then don't bet. Go back to check/calling.

1st hand bet river and it's a finely played hand. Second hand is a raise pf. Failing to do that chk raise the flop. And as played it's a slam dunk call on the river

If he's still in the hand, that type of remark could be (probably is) a ruse. In other words, he's trying to deceive you.

Possibly.

Nice (premium) starting hand.

OK. Raise is OK too.

I would bet this flop.

I much prefer directly betting this flop. A check/call is deceptive, but throws off the dynamics.

I would bet this turn.

I much prefer a direct bet to a check/call. Check/calling the hand all the way through gets you no read on Button. Button could have something or could just be betting position.

We missed, but we still have two pairs with aces in our hand. Now we go into check/call mode.

OK.

OK.

Either way is OK.

No. Not a loose call.

Yes. Definitely.

Yes.

Since the way you played the hand (check calling all the way) you couldn't get a read on Button, yes, your two pairs, aces up, is strong enough to call.

Buzz

Thanks everyone for the responses! I may play in that game again this Saturday and if so, I'll post some new material if I run into any tricky situations. I realize I missed some value on both hands so gonna try to seal up that leak.

5 opponents remain on turn. Chance is too high your pair of Ts are not good. People in such loose games are usually passive too. They check/call JJ+ all the time but they don't bet. They often don't bet a weak 8 either but call.

If you have a nut low draw it may be closer to a bet.

Take a free card on turn. River is a value bet.

Definitely raise that hand (AAJ4ss) in a kill pot! With that particular hand, you're fine with either a lot of opponents or just one. You just want as much money to go in as possible. If it wasn't a kill, a call would be fine in that spot, but I would reraise after the button raises.

I think I would bet the flop and turn, but it's close. Check/calling versus one opponent on the river is pretty much the only choice.

shouldnt matter that it is a kill hand or not. dont look at it from a $ point of view, look at it from a # of bets pov.

To be clear, that is how I look at it. I look at it as # of bets. Kill only effects me when I'm in the blinds since you get worse odds.

However, it is important to mention because a few of the other players see the kill as an "expensive hand" and are more cautious with what they play. Is this wrong? Yes. But should it be exploited? I'd also say yes.

This is a capping for value hand. It doesn't matter whether you limit the field; you'll be getting money in with the best of it, which is the point of the game.


Not a loose call. I bet with nut or second nut low draw + overpair approximately 100% of the time. This would play better if you had raised pre.


Yes. You want to fold out what are (or might become) junky two pair hands in case you air-ball the river.

Yup.

If these players are super loose than I would just check behind. I really think 4,8 and t,8 are the only real threats but just the same in a family pot only a queen or Jack high flush can call here and you would have to call a raise so unless they are fools, well, you are beat then. And you are repping the flush if you ask me, not the missed low draw. But live players call down with some crazy sht sometimes in 08.

Before our local casino closed its poker room the 3/6 08 game had 2 people that called every raise preflop BEFORE they looked at their cards. Even capped raises. So, there is always some crazy sht out there.