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Old 05-06-2017, 01:30 AM   #1
LUCIUS VARENUS
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Diamond 10c/25c 5 card plo8 - nitty fold with big wrap? on rainbow board?

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 6 players - View hand 3059167
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero is UTG with [Q2KA9]

BTN: $20.92
SB: $35.13
BB: $33.18
Hero: $43.68
MP: $41.36
CO: $98.93

Pre Flop: ($0.35)
UTG calls $0.25, MP raises to $0.75, CO raises to $2.85, 3 folds, Hero calls $2.60, MP calls $2.10 (should I fold to the 3 bet or cold call it?)

Flop: ($8.90) 6 T J (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks (should I bet into the raiser here?)

Turn: ($8.90) 2 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, CO bets $8.52, Hero folds, MP folds (is this a good spot to lead?)

Should I be calling this PSB?

Pros:
-All of my outs make me the nuts for high
-The pot odds are slightly favourable. 16 outs and getting 2 to 1 on a call, 100(16/41)=39.02% chance to make my hand, so getting 2 to 1 on a ~3 to 2 spot. (not sure about this but am certain it's actually 15 outs because villain has an ace in his hand)

Cons:
-I am out of position, making it harder for me to get paid off
-Obviously have to fold all rivers that have do not make my hand, meaning villain can successfully barrel the majority of rivers and does not need any SD value due to being in position
-2 of the ranks which complete my straight make low possible
-At least one of the ranks that complete my straight may also complete the same hand for villain
-In the cases where I chop with villain, some of those times he will also make a low and quarter me if the card that helps me is an ace or eight.
-I might make trip deuces and end up paying off vs a boat/incorrectly fold due to not knowing what my opponent has and facing a large bet
-The turn killed my low draw completely
-The times I make my hand may lead to villain bluffing, but I will probably not get any action from worse if I bet when checked to/raise when he bets (low implied odds)

Cognizant I am thinking about this in a low level kind of way, so would appreciate any suggestions how to attain a superior thought process.

Last edited by LUCIUS VARENUS; 05-06-2017 at 01:43 AM.
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Old 05-06-2017, 12:58 PM   #2
monikrazy
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Re: 10c/25c 5 card plo8 - nitty fold with big wrap? on rainbow board?

Seems ok, we can certainly consider b/c or c/r lines on flop, turn is a terrible card for us and folding is fine, even if we call a small bet we can get quartered on river pretty easily
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Old 05-06-2017, 09:21 PM   #3
the_spike
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Re: 10c/25c 5 card plo8 - nitty fold with big wrap? on rainbow board?

You flopped a monster and should be looking to get as much money in on the flop as possible. Turn card is an absolute disaster - literally that and the 2 are the worst cards - check/fold. (Obviously you don't want the board to pair either.)
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Old 05-07-2017, 03:40 AM   #4
Mickeypowell5
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Re: 10c/25c 5 card plo8 - nitty fold with big wrap? on rainbow board?

Again, seems completely fine with me. We flopped a monster but once again we're oop and the pot is a 3b pot. What's the stats on CO? If he 3b's a lot pre, then yes I'm potting flop here. If he 3b rare, then I'm x flop. Turn of course if atrocious, and I'm folding to psb here.
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Old 05-07-2017, 03:44 AM   #5
amok
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Re: 10c/25c 5 card plo8 - nitty fold with big wrap? on rainbow board?

I think leading the flop is clearly the best - it's unlikely that villains hit the flop hard and at this depth they aren't really bet-folding a lot of hands.

Pre and turn c/f fine.
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Old 05-07-2017, 10:01 AM   #6
ngFTW
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Re: 10c/25c 5 card plo8 - nitty fold with big wrap? on rainbow board?

with regard to folding to the pot bet on the turn, as played,
can't we consider our implied odds to the extant that we can call?

is the opinion that on 9,Q,K,A rivers that we either split, are scooped or don't get paid often enough to give us the correct implied odds.

i approximate it as something like IF we are going to fold ~61% of rivers, split the pot on ~16% of rivers and make a scooping hand on ~23% of rivers that we only need to get paid a full pot bet ~50+% of the times we scoop, or get paid a half pot bet on ~75+% of scoops.
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Old 05-09-2017, 10:24 AM   #7
greybeard33
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Re: 10c/25c 5 card plo8 - nitty fold with big wrap? on rainbow board?

I'm with ngFTW on this one. Hard to fold with scoopable nut outs and good implied odds (in my opinion). Since you didn't bet flop your hand is somewhat concealed so now looks like you are chasing low more than anything. I think you get paid off quite a bit here when you hit on the river.
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