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 04-28-2011, 05:39 PM #1 Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Lafayette, LA Posts: 5,995 SGspecial's critical pot size article (razz) I had a question for SG and he recommended I post here. The part of the article that reads: "Hero will improve an average of 70% of the time, but villain will make the nuts 52% of the time, resulting in roughly 34% pot equity for the hero. Thus, the equation to determine the critical pot size for the hero to call on 6th street would be:" All i was wondering was how the 70% and 52% was calculated. I assumed he just counted the cards that would help and divide by total remaining cards.
04-28-2011, 05:52 PM   #2
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: ceteris paribus
Posts: 6,518
Re: SGspecial's critical pot size article (razz)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by camz2895 I had a question for SG and he recommended I post here. The part of the article that reads: "Hero will improve an average of 70% of the time, but villain will make the nuts 52% of the time, resulting in roughly 34% pot equity for the hero. Thus, the equation to determine the critical pot size for the hero to call on 6th street would be:" All i was wondering was how the 70% and 52% was calculated. I assumed he just counted the cards that would help and divide by total remaining cards.
TY for posting here, sir. A lot of people have requested a copy of this article recently (since it's no longer available in the archives of the 2p2 magazine where it originally appeared in the July '10 issue under the title "Calculating the Critical Pot Size in Razz - by Dan Abrams") so I wanted to address any questions in this forum in case others have the same ones.

Answer: I used some tricks with the propokertools simulator, but counting hero's and villain's outs will work too if you know villain's exact hole cards. Since we only have him on a range in that example, the number of outs each player has can only be approximated.

 04-28-2011, 05:55 PM #3 Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Lafayette, LA Posts: 5,995 Re: SGspecial's critical pot size article (razz) Yea that's what i was wondering about (approx villain's range)...figured you used the sim somehow. Are these tricks available to us mere mortals? Or does it require a subscription or something? Did you take an average of different equities for diff ranges? I'd like to start doing some of this stuff on my own but i want to make sure i'm doing it right from the ground up.
04-29-2011, 05:48 PM   #4
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: ceteris paribus
Posts: 6,518
Re: SGspecial's critical pot size article (razz)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by camz2895 Yea that's what i was wondering about (approx villain's range)...figured you used the sim somehow. Are these tricks available to us mere mortals? Or does it require a subscription or something? Did you take an average of different equities for diff ranges? I'd like to start doing some of this stuff on my own but i want to make sure i'm doing it right from the ground up.
Ancient Chinese secret, sir!

(Hint: You should be able to figure out how to use the sim to find hero's total equity on 6th st and also hero's equity on 7th if he improves. From those numbers you should be able to calc. the chance of villain making the nuts, and finally the chance of hero improving.)

 05-05-2011, 02:38 PM #5 Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Lafayette, LA Posts: 5,995 Re: SGspecial's critical pot size article (razz) i will attempt and report back with results
 11-29-2011, 07:27 PM #6 adept   Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 982 Re: SGspecial's critical pot size article (razz) Any update, Cam? And is there a link to this article? Thanks.
 02-22-2012, 04:59 PM #7 Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Lafayette, LA Posts: 5,995 Re: SGspecial's critical pot size article (razz) hello sir i had forgotten about this thread so no update but i will attempt to solve this soon

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