Quote:
Originally Posted by franknagaijr
The very first post in this thread actually quotes Mason's definition of the problem verbatim. As written, I would very much interpret the problem as:
'What are the odds of getting Aces two hands in a row'.
If this sentence alone is the only thing we have, then we can assume that only two hands are played and in that sense probability to happen is 1/221*1/221 = 1/40k.
But this is not how one would practically look at such question, or statement. And normally when one asks the above, he would imply an event that occured during a session, or something like this. When a fish says "lol he got aces 2 times in a row", and we try to calculate the probabily for that, we wouldn't end at 1/40k, but the answer will more lean toward 1/221.
Think also about the more radical statement, "wow, he got aces 3 times in a row". Most often,
the mathematical event that triggered this "wow" statement would be with probabilty 1/40k
or less, instead of 1/4million.