Ah. Here's to hoping that's correct. cheers

Being blatantly contradictory is now every bit the virtue Rand made greed

We should do a combined bet with some of the people saying <4. I'm saying it's between 4 and 8. We should make the bet in such a way that you only win if it's >8, they win if it's<4, and I win if it's in between. We could do 2:1 odds on each.

I hear a lot of talk but no bets

I think my timeline is just after the midterm elections, if it's going to happen. Maybe 40% doesn't complete Term 1, and around 75% to not be the Republican nominee. I know both are going to sound fairly high to most people but he's a really exceptional case. I'm questioning everything from his competency to his party support to his desire to actually be President.

they learned their lesson not to bet against Trump!

I actually think Trump has a much better chance of not finishing his first term than any of the previous presidents going back at least to Ronald Reagan (not going back further cuz I don't know enough about them), because I believe the biggest economic crisis in all US History is coming, but still the odds are too good that he will finish it.

You're predicting a > Great Depression event within the next 3 years or so? That's kinda bold

What causes homophobia? What is it that makes a heterosexual man worry? I think it's because men know that deep down we have weak sales resistance. We're constantly buying shoes that hurt us, pants that don't fit right. Men think, "Obviously I can be talked into anything. What if I accidentally wander into some sort of homosexual store, thinking it's a shoe store, and the salesman goes, 'Just hold this guy's hand, walk around the store a little bit, see how you feel. No obligation, no pressure, just try it. Would you like to see him in a sandal?'"

Not that bold. Dude pretty much made a beeline for a trade war with Mexico. Is willing to make taxpayers shell out cash for some useless wall. All in the first week of his presidency.

25% to start within the next 4 years (before the end of term 1), 60% to start within the next 8 years (before the end of term 2), 75% to start within the next 10 years, 85% to start within the next 15 years, 95% to start within the next 20 years.

But it won't look the same way. During the Great Depression you had prices going down, this time there'll be hyperinflation and a run on the US dollar, and eventually probably a run on all world fiat currencies and a return to a de facto world precious metals standard.

During the Great Depression there were no jobs to be found. This time there will be plenty of jobs, but you won't be able to buy much of anything with what they'll pay. So people will be effectively unemployed just because it won't make sense to take a job that pays next to nothing, even though the dollar amounts of the wages will be gigantic by today's nominal values.

The trade war with Mexico and China are just icing on the cake. The real meat of this issue is the government's debt, which is something around the neighborhood of 200 trillion, or about 1.5 million per taxpayer, and rising both because of deficit spending, promises to pay things that can't be paid, and because of changing demographics.

About that wall... There's a good chance (70%) that sometime within the next 30 years the mexicans will be laughing at the Trump supporters because that wall will be used to keep people from fleeing the US into Mexico in mass.

Even if Trump were to intentionally do everything in his power to collapse the economy, he can't act unilaterally. You can't get to collapse without crushing a lot of powerful interests that the GOP has to answer to. Dems still have votes, there are industrial influences, the Fed etc.

No question he's very capable of doing some damage. But "biggest economic crisis in US history" is definitely bold. I suppose eventually someone will be right but people have been top-calling the US and world markets forever and most have no idea what they're talking about.

In your case, I'd start with your debt numbers before going to the paint on those predictions (they're atrociously incorrect). I'm not sure if you're pulling my chain - if you're being serious find a better source for the debt breakdown and how it works. If the debt were $200 trillion I'd certainly agree with you (while I was digging out my bunker).

He's already starting to physically look like **** and he hasn't even done anything yet. All he's done is sign executive orders that Bannon wrote for him.

LOL hyperinflation.

For God's sake the US Dollar is crushing foreign currencies lately.

USD/EUR
USD/GBP
USD/MXN
USD/CAD

Are all at (or near) multi decade highs.

These hyperinflation whiners don't understand that the USD is incredibly strong.

And yes, great job projecting out 100 years of government programs. Damn, my next 100 years of grocery bills is $480,000. And I don't have that. Looks like I'm not fiscally responsible and there's a depression around the corner. Better buy gold, amirite?

Social security is such an easy fix. It's literally increase the contribution by 1%, chain CPI and subject 90% of wages to the tax.
http://crfb.org/socialsecurityreformer/

They don't do it because it's a total political loser and the voters will respond by voting out everyone that does it. It will get done though, 6 months before the trust fund runs out in 2034.

For sure the stock market is overheated, but in the grand scheme that doesn't effect the average joe like the housing market collapse did. The only huge bubble is student loans, and we have PAYE and REPAYE which is just a near lifetime 10% tax on wages now so the outcome of that is just slow growth for the millennial generation.

curious about the post with the crotch-grabbing bravado from a screenname I didn't recognize, I glanced at the date the account was created aaaaand, yep. new account.

well look at it this way, you got a ha-yuuge head start on everyone else, you should almost be able to approach the koch brothers/scrooge mcduck level of precious metals...

The RP preppers used to be so funny to laugh at from the side. I'm finding myself wondering if I need a HAM radio and things lately though.

You don't get it, this was gonna happen with or without Trump.

It is. You're just looking at the "national debt", that is, US Treasury bonds which is 20 trillion and that in and of itself is unpayable. The government owes a LOT more than that. Take a look at the unfunded liabilities, govt backed mortgages, student loans, muni bonds, state debt, etc etc.

Let alone the fact that individual debt is gigantic on top of that.

silver thread is in BFI

You're penciling in long-term projected budget shortfalls as debt. And that's the same tired "End Is Near/Buy [insert precious metal] Now!" bit I've heard for ages. Maybe your ship will come in, but your crowd historically sucks at predicting the when.

man, I really dont think you are paying attention. nothing about trump seems to show that he will quit or give up. and really, I dont think people of the personality type that you are tying to trump (of which I dont think you are wrong about either) tend to quit either.

and regardless you are drastically undervaluing how many true believers he has and how much they will put up. trump was not wrong when he claimed he could shoot someone and no one would care.

he could start a world war and destory our economy but he would still get a ton of support. just blame the left. and he wouldnt even need to cleverly obfuscate or make a good case.

only way he doesnt go for 8 years is assassination or health problem. seems less than 3%.

Willing to lay 9-to-1 odds on that?

A lot of them are ignorant, but they aren't ****ing stupid. They don't think they 'depend' on or need 'welfare', but when the writing is on the wall and their actual lives, the lives of persons they care about, are endangered and taken they will cut the throats of the GOP. Because, them dying isn't part of the package. The GOPe is seizing the moment to take their cut. There aren't any plans to save those whites. The GOPe is beyond even white nationalism now. It's post-Rand white nationalism. Apocalyptic, depraved beyond all comprehension. But the older white nationalist guard, which does include a members only type welfare state, are fighting the elites. All of this at the highest levels of power in the world. In real time. It's ****ing nuts.

Before any side wins, the opposition must hit as hard as possible. It won't happen in the Senate. Senators are performing roles defined by the Constitution. Think of them as offices instead of individual persons, wherein the person creates the staff of said office. Because of their role, they don't have the kind of power that they do when the Republic is functioning properly, but they won't realize it because from the inside it looks normal. Philosophers/academics aren't wrong. Well, not all of them, lol. They aren't doing nothing. The theories are based in reality whether anyone likes that this is true or not.

The peoole, and the civil institutions which have gone very rogue, must seize the moment. Restore the Republic, or it will die. It has fallen. These things happen very swift. If the moment is not won, it's not game over, but it's just... not a good outcome. It is preferable to have broad truces negotiated by the Senate and so on to war against all and/or a totalitarian regime.

Congress will perform their Constitutional duties if enough pressure is applied. ****ing apply it. None of this is theory, it's what happens. After the kind of restoration of the Republic occurs, we really, really need to fix some flaws in the Constitution. To say the least.

Donald Trump is an existential threat to the Republic, and because of the United States stature in the world, a threat to global security, peace between major powers, the entire human race. This isn't a game. This isn't a theory I have. It's happening, alright. Do something. What? Anything you can, carve out some space for it. All help is useful. Whatever you are good at doing. If you believe Constitutional governance is, more or less, a reasonable idea, well, hey, guess what? This is how it is maintained under stress. All of this has been written down. You probably learned it, didn't understand it. Good luck.

(Not directed at microbet. He understands all of this already. I can read his posts. Zikzak understands. DVaut understands. AllInFlynn understands. Fly does too. A lot more. Those came to mind off the top of my head among active posters.)

P.S. I did not post with the intent of engaging in debate. This is a super cliffs version, as I understand it. I have studied these things. You know, in my spare time, and at University, all of that. Believe it. Don't. Believe a variation of it, good. That's my intention. IF YOU BELIEVE ANY VARIATION OF THE ABOVE, RESIST. If you don't care, I don't care that you don't, not one bit. Step aside or be felled.

LIKE

Wow. Yes. That. Read it. Hear the part where it's not a game, it's real. Hear the part where it's on us -- do not wait for the Dems or Repubs or whatever white knight. Hear that it happens fast -- 2018-2020 may be too late.