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Who will run against Trump in 2020? Who will run against Trump in 2020?

02-21-2019 , 12:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
US GDP/capita is also ~33% higher than Canada's and 10% higher than Australia's. Adjusting for that and you're at $440 a month. Getting really far away from $300.
Is there a reason a higher GDP should mean radically higher healthcare costs? I mean labor costs would go up, but aside from that?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Inso0
If this data were accurate and translatable to the USA, it would be shouted from every rooftop during UHC debates. The only people paying under $300/month for healthcare are the people already getting it for free via subsidy.

Every large employer in the USA would be pushing for it, particularly because they know it would become a payroll deduction.

So if true, you've got your talking point on how to convince people like me to jump into supporting UHC with both feet.

That's also why I think your claim comes with a very large asterisk.
I am not claiming that the US could provide the same standard of care that people with good insurance get for under $300/month. I am saying that that figure is not outrageously off the mark. And we're not comparing apples with apples here because the plan you're talking about comes with big deductibles etc, right?
02-21-2019 , 12:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
What? We just had a study about how universal health care would cost $30T over 10 years, which is trillions less than what the status quo would cost over the same time, and right wingers were furious at the top line number and not the savings. You don't know what it would cost because you don't listen to liberals, bro. It's not because no one is saying it.
That figure would still be vastly higher than what any other country spends on healthcare, btw.
02-21-2019 , 12:46 AM
Yeah, 300% higher than your quoted figure. Suddenly it doesn't seem so worth dismantling our current system.
02-21-2019 , 12:50 AM
No it still seems worth spending that much on health care for all. We could even get trickle down raises from the money companies save. I kid they would keep the money.
02-21-2019 , 01:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inso0
Yeah, 300% higher than your quoted figure. Suddenly it doesn't seem so worth dismantling our current system.
So why does healthcare in the US cost so goddamn much? What is your plan for fixing this?

My plan starts with "let's make the government single-payer and then they will be empowered and incentivized to find out what the hell is going on and get costs down".
02-21-2019 , 01:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Baltimore Jones
]If you tell me right now that it'll be 40/30/30 and the DNC hands it to Harris/Biden, I think I'd bet on Trump.
I agree that if Bernie (or Warren or another progressive) gets the most votes/delegates in the Democratic primary and does not win the nomination due to deal making at a brokered convention, Trump becomes the favorite in the general barring other major events changing that.

It would splinter the party so much worse than in 2016.
02-21-2019 , 01:30 AM
Unregulated drug prices and (arguably) excessive end of life care (and long shot surgeries in general) account for most of the difference. Put bluntly, if we provided Japanese/European level of end of life care, do some kind of QALY to eliminate some of the most expensive surgeries that don't yield a lot of expected life, and instituted some kind of price control on drugs, most of the difference between 6k/capita expected (relative to GDP) and 10k/capita (what we actually pay) would disappear.

Other culprits that have been IDed:
Unhealthy living habits (food and lack of urban walking)
Higher costs of medical education (takes more time and money to become doctor in US)
Relative lack of alternative care providers (think nurse practioners and so on)
Highly specialized doctors that are best in world (this does two things: they understandably charge more and new doctors try to go into these specialities, further constraining supply at primary care level)
ER driving up costs and uninsured population delaying healthcare. (This one is surprisingly mixed. Surprise ER bills ruin people but overall contribute relatively little to rising costs, but probably because the ridiculous ER bills are in part to compensate for other factors already mentioned. People keep trying to show this matters a lot but they aren't having much success. But socially, it's obviously important.)

There are a few other things but these are the main ones that are studied the most. Insurance has also been IDed but empirical studies (there have been lots), even ones that lean left, show they account for relatively little of the difference between the ~6k/capita we'd be expected to pay as % and the ~10k/capita we actually pay. The biggest culprits are still end of life care and high drug prices.
02-21-2019 , 01:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inso0
Yeah, 300% higher than your quoted figure. Suddenly it doesn't seem so worth dismantling our current system.
Yeah, God forbid we save a minimum of like 10% while also covering more people with better care. But **** the poor people who are currently uninsured, am I right?

By the way, it's worth noting that the $32 trillion over 10 year price tag includes dental, vision, mental health care, reproductive health care, substance use treatment. It's more generous than single payer systems in effect in other countries.

In other words, under the Bernie Sanders Medicare-for-All plan, we'd save about 10% on costs while providing everyone coverage and providing very good coverage at that.

We could thus save a lot more money with a plan more in line with other developed nations.
02-21-2019 , 01:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
Is there a reason a higher GDP should mean radically higher healthcare costs? I mean labor costs would go up, but aside from that?
Labor is biggest component but other typical fixed costs like rent are also highly correlated with GDP/capita.

Just go look at any plot of GDP/capita vs. healthcare/capita. It's nearly a straight line. US, depending on which dataset you use and how you deal with outliers, should be spending around 6k/year but actually spend 10k. Rest of the OECD (especially if you take out tiny nations like Luxemberg) is pretty much right on the line.

It really doesn't matter what the mechanism is. Fact is healthcare spending rises with GDP.
02-21-2019 , 01:47 AM
If there is one issue i found trump voters like its universal health care. Dems need to hammer that.
02-21-2019 , 01:54 AM
It's really weird people like inso0 and to an extent griz are surprised that Healthcare costs are exorbitantly higher in a country trying to squeeze profits out of the system vs countries trying the opposite approach.
02-21-2019 , 02:01 AM
The healthcare stuff is a derail so I started a new thread; pls come join me here if you would like to continue.
02-21-2019 , 02:06 AM
Advancements can cut costs.
02-21-2019 , 03:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mosdef
Furthermore, is the idea here that people weeping on election night were emotionally shattered because of their enduring and passionate love of Hillary Clinton? Uh, no. People cried on election night 2016 because the country showed it's true face by electing a transparently incompetent and unqualified imbecile strictly because the country is filled with hate. They were crying because their illusion of the US as a nation on the path to a better world was destroyed in one day. On literally the day before the election the general belief was that Clinton had a 90%+ chance of winning - people were virtually certain that their country was too good to do something so obviously stupid as elect Donald Trump. And all of that certainly, all of that opportunity for a better country, gone in an instant. That's why people cried. None of them give a **** about Hillary Clinton specifically.
You are way off. I have 100s of feminist friends ( dated 2 Emmanuel Collage hotties) who would have been depressed for months if Hillary lost to anyone. Sure the dream was shattered but for many it was as simple as Hillary getting a fork stuck in her.
02-21-2019 , 04:22 AM
Why do people respond to Inso?
02-21-2019 , 10:43 AM
I wish they could just do the primary now so I could know who I'm going to have to get behind after swallowing hard. I'm all in on Bernie, but if Kamala is the other option to Trump, I'm voting for Kamala. It just might take me a minute to come to terms with that.
02-21-2019 , 10:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic
It's really weird people like inso0 and to an extent griz are surprised that Healthcare costs are exorbitantly higher in a country trying to squeeze profits out of the system vs countries trying the opposite approach.
Is it really though?

These are the dudes who want to cut 3 billion checks for any Bezos type.
02-21-2019 , 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cuserounder
Yeah, God forbid we save a minimum of like 10% while also covering more people with better care. But **** the poor people who are currently uninsured, am I right?
Because 10% is a suspect number, and enough people have decided that they aren't willing to turn over 100% of the control over their healthcare to the government to potentially shave a couple of points off the cost.

Also, who are these currently poor uninsured people? If you aren't covered right now, it must be by choice. It has never been easier to obtain subsidized healthcare coverage than it is today.
02-21-2019 , 11:05 AM
“If you aren't covered right now, it must be by choice.” deserves rainbow text treatment.
02-21-2019 , 11:28 AM
“If you aren't covered right now, it must be by choice.” deserves rainbow text treatment.
“If you aren't covered right now, it must be by choice.” deserves rainbow text treatment.
“If you aren't covered right now, it must be by choice.” deserves rainbow text treatment.
“If you aren't covered right now, it must be by choice.” deserves rainbow text treatment.
“If you aren't covered right now, it must be by choice.” deserves rainbow text treatment.
“If you aren't covered right now, it must be by choice.” deserves rainbow text treatment.
“If you aren't covered right now, it must be by choice.” deserves rainbow text treatment.
02-21-2019 , 11:34 AM
I mean, who doesn't have a driver's license, amirite?
02-21-2019 , 11:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LFS
I mean, who doesn't have a driver's license
About 50-70% of American poker players when trying to sign them up for Intertops after Black Friday. About 95% had no passport as well.
02-21-2019 , 11:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
About 50-70% of American poker players when trying to sign them up for Intertops after Black Friday. About 95% had no passport as well.
What do you think the correct % of passport ownership to be?
02-21-2019 , 11:59 AM
Did you just miss the joke or something tho
02-21-2019 , 12:00 PM
♀️ 2020!

      
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