Quote:
Originally Posted by GermanGuy
dvaut sounds like Rick Snyder is the Jon Huntsman of 2016. Doesn't seem like the strongest sell for "who will be the 2016 repulican nominee"
Something like that. As I said, he's ~0% in 2016 but if he wins reelection, I think it's a question of
when he runs, not if. As I said, it's hard to envision him surviving a trip to the GOP primary circus. He thumbed his nose at Grover Norquist when he ran in 2010, said he sided with Bloomberg's immigration reform (read in GOP circles: AMNESTY) thing at the National Process Club last month, supported the auto-bailout, vetoed voter-ID laws.
Just really hard to envision him winning in the current climate. He's probably well served by waiting and hoping the GOP moderates or just demographic shifts change the party into something different by 2020 or 2024.
But he might want to raise his profile and tries to run in 2016 to raise his profile and introduce himself nationally, understanding that in the GOP, historically the 2nd or 3rd attempt can be more successful.
There's something like, 29 GOP governors and 45 GOP Senators and maybe another 10-15 other notable GOPers with a profile to plausibly entertain running (i.e., Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Rudy Giuliani, Santorum, Peter King, Trump, Palin, Bachmann, Huckabee, whoever).
If you start putting an imaginary laundry list of qualities needed to be successful and just get through the nomination process, Snyder is missing like half of them, but what he has is a personal fortune to try a couple of times ala Romney.
What he needs now more than anything is what digby (a leftist blogger type, if you read left blogs) refers to as "a hippie to punch": in another thread, I noted that so much of our current political ethos remains informed by the social revolutions of the 1960s. Well, so the theory goes, what GOP primary voters and right-wingers want more than anything is hippie punching. They don't want policies. They don't want debates. They want to know which of their candidates are going to punch a hippie the hardest. Walk into a Vietnam sit-in and just punch those kids in the face for not loving America. Or a black, or a Mexican, or a gay, or all of them together. Whatever their various angerbear issues are, what the right wing writ large wants is a candidate who empathizes with all their various hangups about gays and blacks and women and peacniks being uppity and bothering them and enjoys figuratively punching them. It's not about who's getting a benefit or who wants a law to change as it is hippies made them feel bad and they wanted to punch them, and they want to channel their desire to punch someone into a politician who is foaming at the mouth, looking to punch a hippie for them.
Snyder has seemingly already thrown away his opportunities to punch a black by casting himself against voter ID laws. He's a pretty notable proponent of amnesty and immigration preform, so "punch a Mexican" is out. He's super flip floppy on gay marriage, I can't make out where he stands there.
Where I think he really has a chance to shine for the right is the "punch a poor slob" and/or "punch a union worker" metric. That's his schtick, he's something like Scott Walker lite. His sell to the right is something like, those unions and poor people came looking for handouts, using big words and talking about their hungry sick children, I just punched them in the face and made them go away. That's the sort of story the right understands and wants to hear.
Unfortunately that's probably not enough, the right really wants someone who then went to the next bar looking to fight a black children's school teacher, and then punch a gay and deport a Mexican on his way out the door. Secondarily and related, this is where I think the pundits note Snyder's lack of charisma, and highlight say the fact that Christie has it in spades: Chris Christie is the ultimate hippie puncher. Like Snyder, he's a little too friendly to Muslims or whatever, but man, when he gets rolling on YouTube yelling at a teacher or some fruity journalist or whatever, you can tell the right's collective erection is at full tent-pitch mode, he just looks like he thrives yelling at hippies for giving him lip and running their mouths like that, like he's really gotta restrain himself from walking off the podium and punching a hippie in the face. That's really channeling the inner right-wing Id, and that's not Snyder at all.
In the end, imo, Snyder needs the climate to change in the GOP to be successful.
Last edited by DVaut1; 04-02-2014 at 06:09 AM.