I'd cash out right after TRUMP clinches the nom at anything better than 3.5. You need to cash out before the GE matchup polling with Clinton makes it obvious how much of a dog TRUMP is.

MJKidd makes an interesting point that TRUMP will prob shorten to 2.5 at some time during the cycle, but you can buy back your shares once TRUMP lengthens in the weeks after he clinches.

To convert the odds, 2-1 is equivalent to 3.0.

some new howard stern stuff out re: trump. CNN played some what I consider pretty tame stuff.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczyn...ar#.qkBQ7gQgY8

but the suggestion was it could be a big deal in the ladies vote. I haven't read the article yet.

ok i read it, i dont see anything that bad but it bored me so i didnt read that hard.

Naw, cash out right after the Republican convention, corresponding with the post-convention bounce.

I already did.

Lindsey seems thrilled with recent developments.

Lindsay G should claim some responsibility for helping create the environment primed for Trump.

I'm thinking it is a good thing for Trump toward earning the nom that in the last 2 days:

- dude from china came out against trump
and
- ex mexico prez says mexico is 'not paying for a fu**ing wall'

I think that is the stuff trump followers are going to eat up.

Seems really tame and not newsworthy.

Stuff like this that potentially appeals to the lowest common Trumpeteer doesn't really say much about swaying people who don't already follow Trump. We know had had the knee jerk xenophobic bigot demo locked up.

Can't speak for everyone obv but I'm left of center, a registered republican and will 100% be voting for Trump in FL.

it is gonna be SWEET to watch those guys either:

- lose whatever is left of their dignity and get behind trump
or
- lose whatever is left of their dignity and (at least half heartedly) support hrc

Your wang is showing.

Yeah- it's a lot of garden variety misogyny and if this was just "Boorish Oaf of a Celeb says dumb ****" then it might not be newsworthy. This guys is like- running for President. Against a woman. It's newsworthy.
(and if you think it's "tame" you kinda suck).

Military victim of "LGBT intolerance" in a new Cruz video turned out not to be fired for his support of traditional marriage, but just rotated out as per the usual.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/outward/2...rsecution.html

Where do you think the center is?

Care to elaborate as to why, and specifically as to why his bigotry isn't an issue for you?

Thanks guys.

Just saw a Hillary ad with Morgan Freeman doing the voice-over. Obvious tagline for the GE:"Get busy voting or get busy dying."

1. Literally the title of that Politifact article, "Some farm workers do earn high wages, but not all do", confirms the original statement that skilled workers can earn above minimum wage
2. It's really amusing that of multiple points brought up in the post containing that statement, the only one you can even respond to (several times, like, you can't shut up about it) is an edited in footnote
3. You tried to argue that immigrants are taking too many minimum wage jobs, leaving not enough for Americans, and as I originally said it's still a fact that lazy Americans don't want some of those minimum wage jobs
4. You're bad at posting and should stop

LOL@ U !!!1! FYI: I bet baseball for living for 10+ years. Anyhoo, here's where we're at today...

2016-2-25	538 Ave	Predictit	w/10% fee	Paddy Power	+EV per 538
Trump	38.4%	73¢	-300	-250	> +161
Cruz	19.4%	7¢	+1195	+3300	> +416
Rubio	15.8%	24¢	+285	+200	> +533
Carson	7.8%	--	--	+15000	> +1183
Kasich	7.8%	3¢	+2900	+3300	> +1183
Ryan	--	3¢	+2900	+10000	yes
Romney	--	--	--	+10000	yes
(other)	10.2%	--	--	(by request)	yes

Well no, the juice is always higher on the markets, much higher. Notice above, the only horse Predictit is offering better odds on is Rubio +285 vs +200... and that's not close to +ev per the 538 Average. As for betting dimes... well I have no idea what PP's limits are... but let's say it's $500. I pop Rubio for the limit, they maybe move him to +150. I pop it again, and get him at a weighted average of +175. If I wanna buy $1000 of action on this market. What's a good approximation of my weighted average? Right before the game 'goes off', so to speak?

Adanthar demonstrated in past cycles that buying and holding that long is a really bad idea, the key to making money is to time the market and look for opportunities for short term scores. MJKidd's strat might work, but if Clinton jumps out to a huge lead by the conventions you're gonna lose money. OTOH, if you think TRUMP will shorten due to the convention, you can profit twice, once by selling soon and then by rebuying and selling again after the convention with the added assurance that you won't lose by hanging on to losing shares during the spring.

No way Cruz isn't last on that list by a long way.

Trump > Rubio is questionable. If Trump can't pivot or un-piss-off most democrats somehow, Rubio is a better but. But Trump is a wild card so he may have a higher ceiling than Rubio.

So when is the whole "Messicans are taking our jerbs!!!!!" meme going to turn to "Masheeeens taking our jerbs!!!!!"?

http://www.businessinsider.com/exper...-robots-2015-5

even though it's looking like think TRUMP is virtually a done deal for the gop at this point, i think rubio would have a better shot in the GE than TRUMP vs. hrc.

i know as a dem, he's my least preferred opponent.

Heres an interesting article that examines how the non-religiously affiliated may have a chance to swing the GE the democrats way, even if non traditionally affiliated with religion Trump is the republican party contender, including this graph which shows his unfavorability rating amongst nones at a whopping 73%



http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendl...ng-vote-again/

As a GOP talking point? You must be kidding.