Who Will Be The 2016 Republican Nominee? (It's Donald Trump) - Page 1199 - Politics and Economics

The Reckoning has begun. It is pretty funny that the scions of the media go from, "Trump can't be the nominee" to "The Unexpected rise of Trump", to "Trump Will Probably Be the Nominee." without a bit of self reflection. They're constantly right, every time.

Quote:

It’s Donald Trump’s world, the media is just living in it. Problem is, they don’t seem to know it.

Ever since the mogul announced his candidacy last June — to a chorus of s******s from Beltway reporters and professional pundits — he’s built a political momentum that on Tuesday night won him his third Republican primary state by a landslide.

Yet the punditocracy has been predicting Trump’s collapse with blind certainty from the very beginning. Outlets from the New York Times, to Nate Silver’s “data-driven” FiveThirtyEight, to official news-explainer Vox.com have consistently dismissed the idea that Trump could win an actual primary, let alone the GOP nomination.

So how might one explain the months and months of botched predictions, analyses and wisecracks while Trump consolidated his power in front of our eyes? For those writers and reporters inhabiting the clubby biodomes of New York and D.C., Trump was at best a sideshow who could only appeal to a handful of backward and racist voters. Serious people, from the mythical “GOP establishment” to media figures themselves, would surely rein in this gag candidacy before things got out of hand. Or so the story went.

http://www.ibtimes.com/reckoning-ver...r-joke-2321947

Good catch on the s*iggers there profanity filter.

02-24-2016 , 06:36 PM

#29953

outdrawed

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 3,707

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul D

Who is going to be responsible for Trump's "accident"?

ikes

But let's be honest. A trump assassination would probably increase his poll numbers. Has anything else hurt the guy?

02-24-2016 , 06:39 PM

#29954

Paul D

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Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 14,689

Dat Hippocratic Oath tho

02-24-2016 , 06:43 PM

#29955

Dids

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 60,871

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteelersDMW

Imagine his outrage if this was someone saying Muslim women are ignorant or stupid for voting for a candidate who supported shariah law in x country

I struggle with parts of this every time one of our Saudi students comes in decked out in a track suit while his girl is covered head to toe (or when it's the woman that's the student and yet her non-student male partner is doing all the talking).

How somebody copes with being raised within a faith/community that's got centuries of ugly baked in misogyny (but that also serves as a support structure and is the only world with which you are familiar) is a lot more complex than voting for a guy who has been actively hostile towards your people.

The thing about people of color and the GOP is that unless you're affluent enough to benefit from their fiscal approach, what are you getting out of the deal? What have you ever? This isn't being asked to shed everything you've known and believe your entire life. It's being asked to be aware that the person you're supporting in no way shape or form has your best interests at heart. To realize that he's actually gone out of his way to demonize your people. That there's a long and document history of awful racist stuff he's done and said.

02-24-2016 , 06:44 PM

#29956

master3004

Revisionist Historian

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 56,419

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul D

Dat Hippocratic Oath tho

Pretty sure it would be on him.

02-24-2016 , 06:49 PM

#29957

Shaomai888

banned

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 834

Quote:

Originally Posted by 425kid

Harry Reid is elite at politics.

Nominate a pro-choice, ACA supporting, DREAMer defending guy who said that Nevada's gay marriage ban was no longer defendable in court.

Except its packaged in the body of a popular, young, Latino, GOP governor from a purple state who was appointed as a federal judge by George W. Bush. Would look so obstructionist if senate republicans denied him a hearing or even if they gave him a hearing and voted him down. So they're stuck between putting a guy on the court who fails all their litmus tests and looking like terrible legislators who won't even back someone from their own party.

And if he does get approved then Reid gets to say he put a local guy on the supreme court while opening up the governor's mansion for democrats (his son was the democratic nominee in 2010).

Harry Reid was the guy collecting money in Casino who denied Robert Deniro a casino license.

02-24-2016 , 06:50 PM

#29958

goofyballer

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I was wrong in my earlier post about Gavin Newsom - I had forgotten (as I imagine a lot of people have) that he actually did run in the 2010 governor race, and was so far behind JB in primary polling that he dropped out in late 2009 and decided to run for Lt. Gov. instead.

02-24-2016 , 06:52 PM

#29959

2OutsNoProb

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Quote:

Originally Posted by master3004

Agreed, but he is running in 2018 when Brown leaves, and I haven't seen much to indicate he isn't the frontrunner right now. Maybe Padilla or Villaraigosa will put up a good fight, but if he wins the seat and California continues on an upward track for the 5 years before having to start campaigning for 2024, I wouldn't be surprised to see him do it.

Absolutely love Newsom, and I'm on the complete opposite side of the country. Would love to see him mount a bid for the Presidency.

02-24-2016 , 06:55 PM

#29960

grizy

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RubiOS needs to take down Texas convincingly if he wants to make this a race. All other scenarios involve Trump taking way too many delegates from winner take all states.

02-24-2016 , 06:58 PM

#29961

master3004

Revisionist Historian

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 56,419

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Yeah he wasn't ready in 2010, and he was up against Gerry who everyone ****ing loves. 2018 will be much closer for him

02-24-2016 , 06:58 PM

#29962

adanthar

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Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 20,109

No, actually, you're wrong.

Quote:

Originally Posted by adanthar

I'm not gonna say anything public about how I got to this point, but I'm buying Trump.TX down to 2.5 (decimal odds) and selling at 1.5 or so.

Here's the important bit for everybody else: Texas delegate math is critical for Rubio. For him to have a prayer Cruz has to win the state and all three main runners must reach 20%. If he gets 19.9% he's dead. If Rubio somehow wins but Cruz drifts down further to 19.9% Rubio is probably still dead. If Cruz wins but runs weak in too many regions such that Trump wins something over a dozen congressional districts, Rubio is likely even more dead depending on how many.

Basically, Rubio's chances rest on Cruz not blowing his own state. If his campaign is smart about this he will not spend one second attacking Cruz in tomorrow's debate and will focus only on Trump.

Because this is the GOP primary I fully expect him not to realize a single bit of this and go for Cruz' throat, thus completing Christie's delayed murder/suicide pact.

If Texas is the only state in play Rubio can't win it and still win the nom.

02-24-2016 , 07:21 PM

#29963

bobman0330

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl

A lot of people ITT have taken pretty much the same trajectory.

02-24-2016 , 07:26 PM

#29964

vixticator

clutch

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 117,339

Quote:

Originally Posted by LFS

Man if I were TRUMP I think I'd be employing a food taster at this point. Anybody offering odds on The Donald having an accident prior to the convention?

Why do people keep saying this? I don't understand why Trump is more likely than anyone else to get assassinated or whatever.

02-24-2016 , 07:26 PM

#29965

Huehuecoyotl

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Because I haven't been paying attention next Tuesday is the next "big event" with Super Tuesday, right?

02-24-2016 , 07:27 PM

#29966

adanthar

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Some of us have reflected about it but are making enough money not to feel bad.

02-24-2016 , 07:33 PM

#29967

Yuv

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,940

I'll ask - why should Rubio avoid winning Texas, adanthar?

02-24-2016 , 07:35 PM

#29968

vixticator

clutch

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 117,339

Quote:

Originally Posted by adanthar

Four years later they are smashing every ceiling and making up 40%+ of the GOP. There is a reason they are turning out like this and it's not *just* the racism. Calling them racist hicks and leaving it at that is missing the point, because if you do that, the answer is very simple - there aren't enough of them outside the Republican Party so Hillary is a mega super turbo lock in nine months. But you're not going to find a lot of people that still think this. There is something else here.

There are a lot, like a lot, of Democratic voters that harbor the same feelings as these 'hicks' who nevertheless voted for Obama in both elections. Trump can absolutely pull from this group. And, it's terrifying. They won't support a Republican who intends to dismantle welfare benefits, send more jobs overseas, and so on, but Trump isn't running on any of this. It still might not be enough for him to win the general, but these are voters Trump can plausibly pluck from the Dems.

02-24-2016 , 07:39 PM

#29969

Alex Wice

aka Double Ice

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 5,951

Quote:

Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl

Bingo

==

Also I want to discuss trump racist stuff mentioned here. One thing I feel was missed is, while trump was openly courting racist voters before, since a long time ago he's already got them pocketed. Since a while ago he has pivoted quite hard. "Muslim, wall, immigration,..." or other racism buzzwords along these lines make up something like 2% of what he's saying, way down from 25% or whatever.

Trump doesn't even swear anymore. He's trying to look as good as possible for the GE nowadays, and his message over the last while has broadened considerably to include more than just the cards he led with when this whole thing started. Today, he's downplaying (as much as he can) some of the incendiary stuff he said before. He's been creating new storylines that he can parrot, that are popular with moderates, disillu dems etc

Sent from my SM-G925W8 using 2+2 Forums

02-24-2016 , 07:40 PM

#29970

Dids

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 60,871

Quote:

Originally Posted by vixticator

Why do people keep saying this? I don't understand why Trump is more likely than anyone else to get assassinated or whatever.

Yeah.

Either there's far fewer people trying to kill important people than we realize or we're actually pretty good at stopping it, either way but I have a hard time buying there's more folks out to get Trump than were out to get Obama.

02-24-2016 , 07:40 PM

#29971

Paul D

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@Alex Wice - Problem with that is those soundbites still exist.

02-24-2016 , 07:44 PM

#29972

bobman0330

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Wice

A week ago he fantasized about mass executions of Muslims using pig-blood-dipped bullets!

02-24-2016 , 07:46 PM

#29973

bobman0330

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Dids

Obviously Obama or Hillary are much more likely to be killed by a random lunatic with a handgun, but if someone goes down to a single headshot from a military-grade sniper rifle or polonium in the tea, it's gonna be Trump.