Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee? - Page 845 - Politics and Economics

And again id like to point out Republicans need to stay away from the foreign affairs when attacking Obama. He just isnt weak on it at all to anyone they could ever hope to sway to their side.

03-13-2012 , 06:57 PM

#21102

seattlelou

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Maybe I should clarify my base case which is Israel doesn't know if the administration has its back or a plan.

03-13-2012 , 06:57 PM

#21103

MrWookie

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Well, we've all but answered the thread's title. It's basically a Obama/Romney GE thread at this point.

03-13-2012 , 06:57 PM

#21104

MrWookie

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Quote:

Originally Posted by seattlelou

Maybe I should clarify my base case which is Israel doesn't know if the administration has its back or a plan.

How would you know?

03-13-2012 , 06:58 PM

#21105

Jake7777

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Quote:

Originally Posted by seattlelou

Maybe I should clarify my base case which is Israel doesn't know if the administration has its back or a plan.

this probably reduces their chances of attacking no?

and lol @ at Israel not knowing this

03-13-2012 , 06:59 PM

#21106

[Phill]

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Didnt the Israeli leader visit America last week and talk about how close he and Obama were on the Iran issue?

03-13-2012 , 07:00 PM

#21107

seattlelou

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWookie

How would you know?

Fair point, i don't and obviously a lot of things are done behind the scenes. Lets say that the administration and Israel are acting in concert and everything being said is the ideal course of action Could we now say that Obama has had some recent affect on the price of oil?

03-13-2012 , 07:01 PM

#21108

Low Key

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jake7777

what about the stock market then?

Turns out it was great that Bush personally destroyed the stock market because that means he also directly lowered gas prices! Unemployment is good when it means boa can get cheap gas!

03-13-2012 , 07:03 PM

#21109

MrWookie

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Quote:

Originally Posted by seattlelou

It still seems weird to blame Obama when Iran's saber rattling is much more obviously to blame.

03-13-2012 , 07:04 PM

#21110

seattlelou

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I hear Obama likes Missouri and Ohio State in his final four. You heard it here first bitches.

03-13-2012 , 07:05 PM

#21111

Max Raker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by seattlelou

Maybe I should clarify my base case which is Israel doesn't know if the administration has its back or a plan.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barack Obama May 7, 2012

Our commitment to the security of Israel is rock solid. The United States will always have Israel's back.

Maybe your base case is Israel is run by anti-Obama zealots that don't follow the news?

03-13-2012 , 07:08 PM

#21112

suzzer99

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Quote:

Originally Posted by seattlelou

Maybe I should clarify my base case which is seattlelou doesn't know if the administration has Israel's back or a plan.

03-13-2012 , 07:13 PM

#21113

Boa Hancock

adept

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 737

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barack Obama May 7, 2012

Our commitment to the security of Israel is rock solid. The United States will always have Israel's back.

Yeah this guy never lies. He never bends the truth. You can take his words to the bank. Ha ha ha

The US is behind Israel. It is questionable whether Obama is behind Israel.

03-13-2012 , 07:15 PM

#21114

seattlelou

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jake7777

this probably reduces their chances of attacking no?

and lol @ at Israel not knowing this

No, Israel does not have the same capabilities to disrupt the Iran's nuclear ambition and their timetable to act is shorter than the US's.
I follow the currency markets closely and the underlying perception is that the US has no idea what to do and there is considerable conflict between Israel, Panetta, Clinton and the Obama political apparatus. I don't follow oil but the same factors are in play.

03-13-2012 , 07:16 PM

#21115

snagglepuss

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big fan of the implicit expertise in the oil markets that so many of you seem to possess

03-13-2012 , 07:17 PM

#21116

Jake7777

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Quote:

Originally Posted by seattlelou

I meant that if true it reduces the chance that Israel will attack

I've seen no evidence that Iran will attack anyone

P.S. Israel has done more to disrupt it than the U.S. has done, and in many ways it is better situated in terms of not starting a war (stuxnet etc.)

03-13-2012 , 07:18 PM

#21117

seattlelou

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Quote:

Originally Posted by [Phill]

Didnt the Israeli leader visit America last week and talk about how close he and Obama were on the Iran issue?

Which he totally backed off on as soon as Bibi was wheels up. A week of solidarity would have been nice.

03-13-2012 , 07:19 PM

#21118

seattlelou

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jake7777

I meant that if true it reduces the chance that Israel will attack

I've seen no evidence that Iran will attack anyone

So did I. Israel has to attack months earlier than the US to have the same result. Do they act alone or hope the US will at the later date?

03-13-2012 , 07:21 PM

#21119

Jake7777

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Quote:

Originally Posted by seattlelou

So did I. Israel has to attack months earlier than the US to have the same result. Do they act alone or hope the US will at the later date?

so your thesis is that the Israel might go it alone early because if they wait and still don't have U.S. support they will be screwed? And you think this thesis is priced into oil futures?

just to make sure I have your point correct

03-13-2012 , 07:22 PM

#21120

Jake7777

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Quote:

Originally Posted by seattlelou

Which he totally backed off on as soon as Bibi was wheels up. A week of solidarity would have been nice.

who is "he?" Netenyahu or obama

03-13-2012 , 07:23 PM

#21121

Trolly McTrollson

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Quote:

Originally Posted by seattlelou

I suppose some perfect leader making optimal play could have an effect, but it would be trivially small. Gas prices are up because the world economy is heating up, China/India are demanding more oil, overseas oil field production is declining, and Iran is being obnoxious. Of those things, the president can maybe affect Iran, but even an optimal president can't make a huge change in what Iran does.

03-13-2012 , 07:23 PM

#21122

suzzer99

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jake7777

You forgot the part where even though Obama publicly and vociferously said he had Israel's back, Obama still has not articulated his exact plan to seattlelou's satisfaction, and therefore Israel obviously is obviously just as unsure.

03-13-2012 , 07:34 PM

#21123

seattlelou

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Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

So I guess we have at least moved from Obama had no recent effect on oil prices to Obama has acted perfectly and there is no premium in the market for the tensions in Iran. Like getting a Paul fan boy to indicate that the newsletters are loosely related to the campaign.

03-13-2012 , 07:37 PM

#21124

MrWookie

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Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

No, that's not where we've moved. But...

Quote:

Obama has acted perfectly and there is no premium in the market for the tensions in Iran.

The former can be true even if the latter is false.

03-13-2012 , 07:39 PM

#21125

suzzer99

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Do you understand the nature of brinksmanship? You can't have it w/o uncertainty. Iran has to think a war is possible, which means the public has to think a war is possible, which means gas prices will reflect that.

Sure gas prices might come down if Obama said, "hey we're never going to invade Iran, get real people". But is that optimal overall?

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