Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee? - Page 302 - Politics and Economics

Actual Rick Perry quote from a speech after his debate:

"Reason we fought the revolution in the 16th century was to get away from that kind of onerous crown"

jesus.

dude, complaining about this is ******ed. People misspeak, obama doesn't think there are 57 states.

etc
etc

10-12-2011 , 12:35 AM

#7527

domer2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,140

not complaining; making fun of him

also....obama graduated magna cum laude from harvard law....rick perry almost flunked out of an agricultural college.

10-12-2011 , 12:36 AM

#7528

MrWookie

Don't Call Me Meredith

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nichlemn

12 for 12 does suggest a high correlation between approval ratings and re-election chances. I don't think anyone is disputing that. What we are disputing is that elections are a "thumbs up or thumbs down affair".

For instance, suppose we were doing a similar analysis but for the correlation between speed and fatalities for car crashes. However, we could only get data on 12 crashes. In 9 of those crashes, the cars were travelling above 100km/hr at the time of the crash and all occupants died. In the other 3, the cars were travelling below 100km/hr and none of the occupants died. Could we conclude that speed is correlated with car crashes? Most likely. But could we conlude that car crashes above 100km/hr are guaranteed to result in death but those below 100km/hr are guaranteed not to? Not at all. Even a weaker conclusion like "crashes are much more likely to be fatal when a car goes beyond 100km/hr" isn't supported.

The margin is important because when you're got so few data points of close elections, it provides additional information. If elections really are a "thumbs up or thumbs down affair", then approval ratings should be perfectly correlated with election margins. They aren't. If it's possible for the margins of victory of incumbents with approvals in the mid-50s to vary by double digits, then it should also be possible for candidates with approvals in the mid-40s.

And I don't think anyone's disagreeing with the bolded part either. Is it hard to win with 42% approval? Yes, very. But it's possible. And one of the ways in which it may be possible is with an opponent who is even more unpopular. Do you agree? If you do, are you repudiating the simplistic "thumbs up or thumbs down affair" mantra?

Good post.

Quote:

Originally Posted by domer2

that may be true, but either way, it reinforces the widely-held belief that he is a total buffoon.

Not so good. I'll give candidates some leeway on little **** like this. We all do something like this sometimes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikestoys

dude, complaining about this is ******ed. People misspeak, obama doesn't think there are 57 states.

etc
etc

Yep.

10-12-2011 , 12:38 AM

#7529

Michael Davis

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 10,009

Obviously some Republican racists are behind Cain, without them he could not have his current numbers.

10-12-2011 , 12:41 AM

#7530

Omar Comin

fantasy failure

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 27,348

Didn't you hear, Cain is black, therefore he's getting the black vote. That's why his numbers are growing.

10-12-2011 , 12:43 AM

#7531

Michael Davis

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 10,009

Quote:

Originally Posted by Omar Comin

Didn't you hear, Cain is black, therefore he's getting the black vote. That's why his numbers are growing.

10-12-2011 , 12:46 AM

#7532

ikestoys

banned

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,424

Quote:

Originally Posted by domer2

not complaining; making fun of him

also....obama graduated magna cum laude from harvard law....rick perry almost flunked out of an agricultural college.

making fun of him (for that) is ******ed as well.

10-12-2011 , 12:50 AM

#7533

Omar Comin

fantasy failure

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 27,348

Rick Perry wants to educate illegal immigrants.

10-12-2011 , 12:52 AM

#7534

ErikTheDread

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 9,124

Quote:

Originally Posted by Omar Comin

Rick Perry wants to educate illegal immigrants.

Broken clocks are right twice a day?

10-12-2011 , 12:59 AM

#7535

domer2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikestoys

making fun of him (for that) is ******ed as well.

yeah but its not

rick perry comes across as a total moron, far dumber even than Bush, and these terrible debates along with this inexplicable gaffe just buttress that belief.

10-12-2011 , 01:36 AM

#7536

swinginglory

banned

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,508

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nichlemn

12 for 12 does suggest a high correlation between approval ratings and re-election chances. I don't think anyone is disputing that.

Fine.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nichlemn

And I don't think anyone's disagreeing with the bolded part either. Is it hard to win with 42% approval? Yes, very. But it's possible. And one of the ways in which it may be possible is with an opponent who is even more unpopular. Do you agree? If you do, are you repudiating the simplistic "thumbs up or thumbs down affair" mantra?

I honestly don't know what you want me to say. Certainly, anything is possible. But according to Nate's statistical analysis using incumbent approval ratings by Gallup (Nate's methodology) if Obama's approval is 42% on election day his chances of re- election is ~20%. If Obama's approval is 40% his chances dive to ~5%. So yes... he would still have a chance, just a very outside one.

http://www.538host.com/appre4.png

And yes.... if the R's nominate Christine O'Donnell then yes, the competence of the opponent becomes a factor, but Romney is close to a lock at this point and even the most avowed leftist would have to grudgingly admit , he is a highly competent fellow. Likely, more competent than the current occupant of the White House by any objective criteria.

However, if one wants to discuss politics rationally and doesn't admit in the case of an incumbent, the vast majority of times, the election is a referendum on the incumbent, then I can only suggest one audits Polysci 101 again.

10-12-2011 , 01:40 AM

#7537

swinginglory

banned

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,508

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael Davis

Is that Michael Strahan or Lauren Hutton?

10-12-2011 , 01:43 AM

#7538

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 99,984

Pretty sure it's Roger from What's Happening?

10-12-2011 , 01:49 AM

#7539

LirvA

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 43,574

Quote:

Originally Posted by mjkidd

I'll bet 200 bucks against your 13 that neither runs.

edit: and I'll pay if either wins the nomination.

225 to 10

10-12-2011 , 01:51 AM

#7540

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

204 to 10

Last edited by SenorKeeed; 10-12-2011 at 01:52 AM. Reason: and the debtor pays for postage

10-12-2011 , 01:56 AM

#7541

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

You best book ASAP, because I'm on Old Fashioned number 5 (Rachel Maddow's recipe, confirmed delicious), and most likely will retract offer once I sober up.

10-12-2011 , 01:56 AM

#7542

LirvA

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 43,574

make an even 205 to 10 and it's a deal

10-12-2011 , 01:57 AM

#7543

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

201.5 to 10

Last edited by SenorKeeed; 10-12-2011 at 01:58 AM. Reason: debtor pays for postage AND the envelope!

10-12-2011 , 01:59 AM

#7544

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by LirvA

make an even 205 to 10 and it's a deal

OK boooked

10-12-2011 , 02:06 AM

#7545

LirvA

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 43,574

Ok so mjkidd has 205 to my 10

mjkidd's side is Ron Paul or Gary Johnson won't run 3rd party if they don't get the GOP nom, and he also pays if Ron Paul or Gary Johnson gets the GOP nom.

My side is Ron Paul or Gary Johnson run 3rd party if they don't get the GOP nom

can I get a witness?!?!

Last edited by LirvA; 10-12-2011 at 02:06 AM. Reason: loser pays postage and envelope. .... wait, how bout paypal?