Quote:
Originally Posted by Nichlemn
12 for 12 does suggest a high correlation between approval ratings and re-election chances. I don't think anyone is disputing that.
Fine.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nichlemn
And I don't think anyone's disagreeing with the bolded part either. Is it hard to win with 42% approval? Yes, very. But it's possible. And one of the ways in which it may be possible is with an opponent who is even more unpopular. Do you agree? If you do, are you repudiating the simplistic "thumbs up or thumbs down affair" mantra?
I honestly don't know what you want me to say. Certainly, anything is possible. But according to Nate's statistical analysis using incumbent approval ratings by Gallup (Nate's methodology) if Obama's approval is 42% on election day his chances of re- election is ~20%. If Obama's approval is 40% his chances dive to ~5%. So yes... he would still have a chance, just a very outside one.
http://www.538host.com/appre4.png
And yes.... if the R's nominate Christine O'Donnell then yes, the competence of the opponent becomes a factor, but Romney is close to a lock at this point and even the most avowed leftist would have to grudgingly admit , he is a highly competent fellow. Likely, more competent than the current occupant of the White House by any objective criteria.
However, if one wants to discuss politics rationally and doesn't admit in the case of an incumbent, the vast majority of times, the election is a referendum on the incumbent, then I can only suggest one audits Polysci 101 again.