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Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee? Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?

10-11-2011 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brad2002tj
Christie endorses Romney. It's over. Congratulations President Romney I look forwards to 4 years of criticizing your decisions and endless warmongering.
+1, all we need now is DVaut's take on the situation for confirmation!
10-11-2011 , 06:51 PM
chris christie made me sad
10-11-2011 , 06:57 PM
I can't think of anything more predictable than Chris Christie endorsing Romney.
10-11-2011 , 07:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brad2002tj
Christie endorses Romney. It's over. Congratulations President Romney I look forwards to 4 years of criticizing your decisions and endless warmongering.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss

... who was the new boss, same as the old boss

... who was the new boss, same as the old boss

etc.
10-11-2011 , 07:02 PM
I am not a Chris Christie fan imo
10-11-2011 , 10:45 PM
Quote:
I am still laboring under the belief that this is going to be successful.

I've always have believed a viable 3rd party could be a positive development for the American political landscape.

- GovGaryJohnson

If neither RP or GJ wins the nomination, there's gotta be some chance they run together as independents.
10-11-2011 , 10:48 PM
This is an executive order I would definitely support.


Quote:
Governor Johnson, thank you for taking the time to do this, I know it means a lot to the community.

As a hopeful challenger to Obama, how would the DEA under a Johnson presidency differ than the DEA has operated under President Obama?

GJ: I hope to defang the DEA. It's my understanding I can deschedule marijuana as a class 1 narcotic by executive order and I will do that.
10-11-2011 , 10:53 PM
some interesting Q&As


Quote:
Do you feel Ron Paul slighted you in the last debate by not naming you as a hypothetical running mate?


GJ: I'll leave the answer about Ron Paul to you.

Quote:
Governor Johnson, I think I'll ask something a few pragmatic libertarians have been wondering regarding your future goals--provided you don't secure the 2012 nomination do you have any plan to make some reentry into politics before then to gain traction for a later year--perhaps a run for U.S. Senate from New Mexico? Thanks.


GJ: No. This is it. This is an all out effort.

Quote:
Thanks for doing this AMA! What do you see as the main differences between you and Ron Paul? You both obviously share very similar views, but I am curious if there is anything you disagree with him on.

GJ: Main differences are my business background and the executive experience I've had in my career.

We may have differing views on immigration, a woman's right to choose, gay issues, and Israel.


Israel? You would continue all foreign aid? just some foreign aid(to Israel for one I guess) or stop all foreign aid. My understanding is that Paul would end all foreign aid.


GJ: I advocate ending all foreign aid, but I draw a distinction with military alliances believing military alliances are the key to having other countries share in the world vigil against terrorism and not just us allowing us to cut military spending by 43%.

Quote:
I'm having a hard time seeing how FairTax is fair. Yes, it sounds fair because it is a tax on consumption. But the major consumers are the lower and middle classes. The upper class has an extremely high income, most of which they will save. So the poor and average American will be paying a much larger percentage of their income in taxes, while in comparison the rich hardly pay anything. Poor and middle class people will have a much heavier burden. It seems like an upper class method of tax evasion to me.

That is my reasoning behind it. I really like you and most of your ideals, but how do you think the FairTax is indeed fair?

Thank you, and good luck in your campaign!


GJ: There is a pre-bate as part of the FairTax.org proposal that has been around for many years. The pre-bate means the poor won't pay any taxes up to the poverty line. If people buy used goods they aren't taxed and they can save even more. Check out FairTax.org for more information.

Quote:
How do you plan on fixing the inflationary monetary system?


GJ: The Federal Reserve should be transparent and its actions held to the same level of scrutiny as any other federal department.

The American people deserve to know the extent to which the Fed has purchased private assets at home and abroad.

Many Americans have become interested in the Federal Reserve in recent years. America's representatives in Washington, D.C. need to also become a lot more interested in how this government institution affects the American economy.

The role and the activities of the Federal Reserve are long overdue for examination, reassessment, and ultimately, thoughtful reform. Can the Federal Reserve pursue both stable prices and full employment, or does its currency manipulation cause malinvestment, inflation, and prolonged unemployment?

Conduct an audit to provide true transparency of the Federal Reserve's lending practices.

Establish clear Congressional oversight.

Get the Federal Reserve out of the business of printing money and buying debt through quantitative easing.

Last edited by LirvA; 10-11-2011 at 11:00 PM.
10-11-2011 , 10:57 PM
A third party Ron Paul run would all but gaurantee a Barack Obama second term.
10-11-2011 , 10:57 PM
Still feel Obama has a decent chance to repeat.

am I in the wrong here?
10-11-2011 , 11:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetto
Still feel Obama has a decent chance to repeat.

am I in the wrong here?
depends what you mean by a decent chance, who you think the republican nominee will be, and where you think the economy will be next year
10-11-2011 , 11:16 PM
Actual Rick Perry quote from a speech after his debate:

"Reason we fought the revolution in the 16th century was to get away from that kind of onerous crown"


jesus.
10-11-2011 , 11:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
depends what you mean by a decent chance, who you think the republican nominee will be, and where you think the economy will be next year
I say Romney gets the nod.

ah, You are correct. Seems like the Economy will be the only factor really. If election was a month away, I feel Obama would be the favorite. Obama has 1 year to bash the GOP economic policy plans and GOP has 1 year to instill faith that they can fix the wrongs
10-11-2011 , 11:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetto
Still feel Obama has a decent chance to repeat.

am I in the wrong here?
I agree with the others here, it is all about the economy. Given the current economy I would say it is too close to call. As others have pointed out (with valid lol sample size arguments) Obama would have the lowest approval rating of a reelected President.
10-11-2011 , 11:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetto
Still feel Obama has a decent chance to repeat.

am I in the wrong here?
He certainly has a decent chance 13 months before the election. Intrade had him in a Session lo/hi 47.0 - 48.6% range today and that feels about right.
10-11-2011 , 11:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LirvA
If neither RP or GJ wins the nomination, there's gotta be some chance they run together as independents.
I don't think there is any chance of that, honestly.
10-11-2011 , 11:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
Actual Rick Perry quote from a speech after his debate:

"Reason we fought the revolution in the 16th century was to get away from that kind of onerous crown"


jesus.
Truly incredible. What outlet was carrying/covering this speech?
10-11-2011 , 11:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bdidd
Truly incredible. What outlet was carrying/covering this speech?
NBC...he was talking to a frat house full of college kids. A reporter tweeted it, no clue if it was caught on tape.
10-11-2011 , 11:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by swinginglory
Hi Nich,

Don't blame the messenger. First I didn't say anything about predicting election margin. There seems to be a perfect 12 for 12 correlation (for some reason FDR's1944 election isn't in the data although he had a 70% rating in 1944) with an incumbent's favorables and his re-election prospects. I'm not a statistician but I don't see how 12 for 12 isn't significant.
12 for 12 does suggest a high correlation between approval ratings and re-election chances. I don't think anyone is disputing that. What we are disputing is that elections are a "thumbs up or thumbs down affair".

For instance, suppose we were doing a similar analysis but for the correlation between speed and fatalities for car crashes. However, we could only get data on 12 crashes. In 9 of those crashes, the cars were travelling above 100km/hr at the time of the crash and all occupants died. In the other 3, the cars were travelling below 100km/hr and none of the occupants died. Could we conclude that speed is correlated with car crashes? Most likely. But could we conlude that car crashes above 100km/hr are guaranteed to result in death but those below 100km/hr are guaranteed not to? Not at all. Even a weaker conclusion like "crashes are much more likely to be fatal when a car goes beyond 100km/hr" isn't supported.

The margin is important because when you're got so few data points of close elections, it provides additional information. If elections really are a "thumbs up or thumbs down affair", then approval ratings should be perfectly correlated with election margins. They aren't. If it's possible for the margins of victory of incumbents with approvals in the mid-50s to vary by double digits, then it should also be possible for candidates with approvals in the mid-40s.

Quote:
Cliffs: NO incumbent below 49% has ever won and no incumbent above 50% has ever lost. Could an incumbent win with a 48-47% approval, yeah probably, but the farther he drops below 50% the more difficult his task becomes.

And , of course, it goes without saying that Nate is a big lib, so he puts the best face on horrid data for his team. Totally standard, but he has the intellectual chops to present the data, which doesn't lie.
And I don't think anyone's disagreeing with the bolded part either. Is it hard to win with 42% approval? Yes, very. But it's possible. And one of the ways in which it may be possible is with an opponent who is even more unpopular. Do you agree? If you do, are you repudiating the simplistic "thumbs up or thumbs down affair" mantra?
10-11-2011 , 11:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjkidd
I don't think there is any chance of that, honestly.

Oh sure there is. You don't think there's at least a 1% chance?

There's definitely a chance imo. How high it is idk ... lower than 50, more than 1. More than 3, less than 20, .... I'd say maybe ..... idk, 7 or 8%???


... I'm kind of opied out right now
10-11-2011 , 11:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
Actual Rick Perry quote from a speech after his debate:

"Reason we fought the revolution in the 16th century was to get away from that kind of onerous crown"


jesus.
In fairness to Perry, I don't think he believes that the American Revolution was fought in the 1500s, rather than he forgot that he thought that "nth century" is "first two digits of date minus one" rather than "first two digits of date plus one".
10-11-2011 , 11:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nichlemn
In fairness to Perry, I don't think he believes that the American Revolution was fought in the 1500s, rather than he forgot that he thought that "nth century" is "first two digits of date minus one" rather than "first two digits of date plus one".
that may be true, but either way, it reinforces the widely-held belief that he is a total buffoon.
10-12-2011 , 12:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LirvA
Oh sure there is. You don't think there's at least a 1% chance?

There's definitely a chance imo. How high it is idk ... lower than 50, more than 1. More than 3, less than 20, .... I'd say maybe ..... idk, 7 or 8%???


... I'm kind of opied out right now
Glad your not a speed freak. If you can muster this must anger on downers I can just imagine if you were a customer of Walter White's!
10-12-2011 , 12:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LirvA
Oh sure there is. You don't think there's at least a 1% chance?

There's definitely a chance imo. How high it is idk ... lower than 50, more than 1. More than 3, less than 20, .... I'd say maybe ..... idk, 7 or 8%???


... I'm kind of opied out right now
I'll bet 200 bucks against your 13 that neither runs.

edit: and I'll pay if either wins the nomination.

      
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