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03-07-2012, 03:39 PM
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#20761
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adept
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 737
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
What. Obama lost in about a dozen counties. He isn't the top choice even in the Democratic primary. This is like GHW Bush losing to Buchanan in the '92 NH primary. It does not bode well for the incumbant.
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03-07-2012, 03:43 PM
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#20762
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Searching for my Canuck soulmate
Posts: 41,031
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
No dude, this is totally a referendum on Obama's unpopularity and is foreshadowing a SOUND DEFEAT rejecting his SOCIALIST POLICIES in November! READ IT AND WEEP!
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EXACTLY!
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03-07-2012, 03:48 PM
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#20763
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Cloud 9
Posts: 6,714
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
Boa convinced that OK is going to be the key battleground state in November.
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03-07-2012, 04:02 PM
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#20764
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Northwest Corner
Posts: 48,388
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boa Hancock
What. Obama lost in about a dozen counties. He isn't the top choice even in the Democratic primary. This is like GHW Bush losing to Buchanan in the '92 NH primary. It does not bode well for the incumbant.
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How does "I disagree with this guy's policies" turn into "I'm going to go to bizarre lengths to rationalize ways in which he's going to lose." Are you hoping that the left will see the light that he's not going to win and not vote or something?
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03-07-2012, 04:08 PM
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#20765
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Denver or Bust
Posts: 6,043
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
Last time Oklahoma voted democrat in the presidential race was in 64. Not exactly a 'bellwether' state
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03-07-2012, 04:12 PM
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#20766
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Don't Call Me Shirley
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Treating my drinking problem.
Posts: 59,925
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boa Hancock
What. Obama lost in about a dozen counties. He isn't the top choice even in the Democratic primary. This is like GHW Bush losing to Buchanan in the '92 NH primary. It does not bode well for the incumbant.
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Even disregarding the stupid lengths you're going to read into this, the last three sentences of your post are all false. Obama WAS the top choice in the OK primary. He had 57% of the vote. No, it's not like HW losing to Buchanan: in 92, HW lost a state, which is much worse than losing a dozen counties in a state but winning the state as a whole. Three, this is meaningless for Obama's chances.
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03-07-2012, 04:20 PM
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#20767
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Ann Arbor
Posts: 20,313
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
Four, Obama's competitor was a pro-life activist who managed to get like a bunch of hardcore pro-life activist types to go cast a vote for a jar-baby guy. The election is a low-turnout affair, so you get a lot of activists to show up to a little club party no one cares about, and this stuff happens. Let's turn the question on its side and put it this way: Obama's campaign would probably spend a ****ton of money to get Randall Terry's name on the ballot everywhere in the country in a general election, and the GOP would fight like hell to keep him off. The results say more interesting things about Randall Terry's appeal to pro-lifers in Oklahoma than Obama's appeal to Democrats.
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03-07-2012, 04:27 PM
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#20768
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adept
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: the river
Posts: 1,135
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
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03-07-2012, 04:38 PM
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#20769
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Lebesgue Airlines
Posts: 15,738
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
Quote:
Originally Posted by rockfsh
Romney Campaign: Only an act of God can stop us.
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lol...not the phrasing I would have chosen given religious social conservatives are his opposition.
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03-07-2012, 04:39 PM
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#20770
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Don't Call Me Shirley
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Treating my drinking problem.
Posts: 59,925
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
Well, he's right. Like, does Santorum think he's going to win CA, OR, NJ, or NY? NC, MD, CT? Mitt's got that **** in the bag, and that's even without an inevitability boost. MS, LA, AL are Newt Territory, but they might even say **** it and go R. Money at this point. Texas is the only real prize at this point where Santorum has a shot. Frothy picking off all of IL, IN, WI, KS, NE, SD, MT, KY, AR, and WV is like a best case scenario at this point, and that's just not going to cut it against Mitt's huge lead plus the bigger prizes of CA, OR, UT, NJ, NY, NC, MD, and CT.
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03-07-2012, 04:44 PM
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#20771
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Ann Arbor
Posts: 20,313
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
Well, he's right. Like, does Santorum think he's going to win CA, OR, NJ, or NY? NC, MD, CT? Mitt's got that **** in the bag, and that's even without an inevitability boost. MS, LA, AL are Newt Territory, but they might even say **** it and go R. Money at this point. Texas is the only real prize at this point where Santorum has a shot. Frothy picking off all of IL, IN, WI, KS, NE, SD, MT, KY, AR, and WV is like a best case scenario at this point, and that's just not going to cut it against Mitt's huge lead plus the bigger prizes of CA, OR, UT, NJ, NY, NC, MD, and CT.
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Right. The absolute best, best hope Santorum has is to maintain the status quo indefinitely, to the end, where Romney gets 4 out of every 10 delegates and comes up just short of having it locked up, that he doesn't get to 114whatever delegates it takes to win, but instead has like 900-1000+ (the pace he's on now). And then the convention gets brokered. What that gets Santorum, I have no idea, since it's hard to believe party leaders would send him to the slaughterhouse rather than just anoint Romney, who at least gives them a puncher's chance.
To even get to that point will require huge patience, and frankly irrationality, of whoever is funding Santorum and Gingrich to keep flushing money away just to be a thorn in Romney's side, because it's highly unlikely their horse would walk away with the prize at the convention.
Or, they're just waiting for the act of God, or for one of Romney's kids to say he molested them or whatever. Frankly if there's people out there who want to keep filling up their campaign war chests and continue, they can keep raising their profile and get that FNC gig or sell books or whatever. The risk is to their future careers in the GOP but it's pretty clear Newt has already burned all the bridges with Team Romney and is slashing-and-burning. Santorum seems to be playing nicely enough with Romney, is giving himself a nice boost in national profile, and is probably personally benefiting from this a lot, such that he can run again in 2016 or run for something else, or get nominated for something by President Romney. Or go have a radio or teevee show or a nice book deal. I don't believe in constantly going back to the last campaign for analogies in this one, but Santorum seems firmly on the Huckabee track.
Last edited by DVaut1; 03-07-2012 at 04:51 PM.
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03-07-2012, 04:47 PM
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#20772
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Got Out the Vote
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Saying AAAHHHHHHH
Posts: 17,520
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
The dude funding Gingrich is like the 7th richest person in the world. I doubt he cares about throwing away another couple mil after putting something like 20 in already and nothing changing..
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03-07-2012, 04:48 PM
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#20773
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Don't Call Me Shirley
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Treating my drinking problem.
Posts: 59,925
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
The curious thing from that MSNBC article is that R Money only raised $11.5 mil in February. That seems like a pretty pathetic haul at this stage of the game, esp. since he's burning a ton of cash on advertisements.
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03-07-2012, 04:57 PM
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#20774
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fantasy failure
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Not exiled from the Politics forum
Posts: 17,318
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
Has Romney spent any of his own money yet?
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03-07-2012, 04:59 PM
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#20775
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Don't Call Me Shirley
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Treating my drinking problem.
Posts: 59,925
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Re: Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?
No, not yet, but I don't think he has spent anywhere near to what Obama spent in 08, either.
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