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What Percentage Of Black People Would Vote For Dr. Ben Carson In 2016? What Percentage Of Black People Would Vote For Dr. Ben Carson In 2016?

09-12-2014 , 04:19 PM
I'm talking about Clinton at age 68.
09-12-2014 , 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by neg3sd
General Colin Powell is the only black Republican with any chance of winning 50% of the black vote.
I had to take the time to acknowledge a post by Negs to which I largely am in agreement. Its rare but it does happen.

Colin Powell is also a candidate that is moderate enough (assuming he isn't forced to move hard right to get a nomination) who could probably get a lot of Democrats as well.

That being said, I question if he could get the GOP nomination these days. I don't think he's conservative enough.
09-12-2014 , 04:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deuces McKracken
27% contains the idea (a racist assumption which has been discredited) that black people are easily duped into voting against their own policy interests by cheap tricks that play on black's strong sense of tribalism overriding what critical judgement they have (tribalism in the sociological not pejorative sense but it's not like those lines don't get blurred given the topic). Of course these perceptions about blacks are completely out of whack?
Inherent in your statement is the idea that these policy interests are not at all debatable as far as black people are concerned. But if they were close, as they must be for some black people, they would be right to add as a factor that the black Republican would be beneficial in various ways if he was president.
09-12-2014 , 04:59 PM
You're probably understimating the probability that Ben Carson would be successfully (and probably accurately) portrayed as an Uncle Tom figure who the black community might see as worse than your typical white racist Tea Party guy.
09-12-2014 , 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Inherent in your statement is the idea that these policy interests are not at all debatable as far as black people are concerned. But if they were close, as they must be for some black people, they would be right to add as a factor that the black Republican would be beneficial in various ways if he was president.
The fact that the splits were ~90/10 in 1996, 2000, and 2004, which is just tremendously lopsided compared to basically every other exit polling demographic, does suggest that the margins are pretty thin to begin with. If there were a lot of people right on the margin you'd expect to see more volatility from election to election.

I think it's difficult to feel very confident in making a prediction because there isn't really a lot of precedent, but my supposition is that while you would expect some kind of marginal improvement for Dr. Carson, the very recent memory of birtherism and other racially charged opposition to Obama is likely to have also left an impression.
09-12-2014 , 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WM2
Distortionary statistical bull****ting isn't part of a true statement. Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics, as they say...

A lot of prima-facie factual things about race are written off as being 'racist' in spite of being true. Either that or it becomes a pathetic rationalization contest of 'root causes' as if that negates or otherwise assuages the negative truism.

YEAH WELL YOU"RE JUST A RACIST!
PLUS, GUNS, GERMS AND STEEL!
When you get back from your vacation, could you please explain what Jared Diamond's book has to do with whatever point it is you're trying to make? Thanks.
09-12-2014 , 06:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Assuming a white Democratic opponent with typical views of the party. (Don't think it would matter much if its a male or female.)

I have no ulterior motive for asking, aside from the fact that it seems like an interesting question.
I have no idea of a precise number or even an O/U number. I think a lot would depend on the campaign he ran. He's bound to do better than Romney and probably McCain.
09-12-2014 , 07:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
He's bound to do better than Romney and probably McCain.
I would hope that a candidate bound to get more than 7% of the black vote would "probably" get more than 5% of the black vote.
09-12-2014 , 07:30 PM
By the way, in hopes of making my position a bit clearer, I would drop down to 15% or less if it was Clarence Thomas.
09-12-2014 , 07:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2/325Falcon
If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve.
09-13-2014 , 01:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deuces McKracken

lol I would love it if I could get Clinton as a dog in an IQ test against any random surgeon, even a professor. What is your thought process here?
The only problem with your "analysis" is that Dr Carson is hardly a "random surgeon/professor."

I'm guessing anyone with the moxie/chops to rise from the Detroit public schools to get into Yale, through Michigan school of Medicine and rise to become the youngest department head ever at one of the best hospitals in the world (Johns Hopkins as the head of Pediatric Neurosurgery, no less) just might be a tad brighter than the average surgeon, no?
09-13-2014 , 02:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by np1235711
The only problem with your "analysis" is that Dr Carson is hardly a "random surgeon/professor."

I'm guessing anyone with the moxie/chops to rise from the Detroit public schools to get into Yale, through Michigan school of Medicine and rise to become the youngest department head ever at one of the best hospitals in the world (Johns Hopkins as the head of Pediatric Neurosurgery, no less) just might be a tad brighter than the average surgeon, no?
Maybe Deuces figured he achieved this through affirmative action and wouldn't be as smart as these accomplishments implied, because he is black.
09-13-2014 , 07:15 AM
Or maybe Deuces has heard him talk about his personal views and opinions, read his writing, etc.
09-13-2014 , 01:06 PM
Isn't Ben Carson a creationist? He seems like one of those "smart" guys who has very compartmentalized intellectual gifts. But I guess that's the best the Republicans can do these days, when a guy like Paul Ryan is considered a "policy wonk."
09-13-2014 , 01:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson
Isn't Ben Carson a creationist?
Yes. More specifically, he is a young earth creationist who believes the earth was literally created in six days about 6,000 years ago.
09-13-2014 , 01:19 PM
Religious/political blinders just do weird things to otherwise smart people. I'm sure he's a skilled doctor and a high-IQ guy, but I still don't want him in charge of managing NSF funding.
09-13-2014 , 01:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Maybe Deuces figured he achieved this through affirmative action and wouldn't be as smart as these accomplishments implied, because he is black.
Maybe I'm nuts, but I'd like to believe a medical institution like Johns Hopkins doesn't dole out department heads in areas like pediatric neurosurgery on the basis of affirmative action. I mean this isn't like Harvard electing the head of their Law Review :-)

Plus, Carson has affirmed his genius by doing ground breaking "outside of the box" stuff in his chosen and ridiculously intricate field.

While I don't viscerally care for Hillary, I would consider voting for her, However, in making a betting line with IQ/intelligence, she'd rate a poor third vs. either Carson and Cruz.
09-13-2014 , 02:25 PM
If he is a YEC even black conservatives shouldn't vote for him.
09-13-2014 , 02:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson
Isn't Ben Carson a creationist? He seems like one of those "smart" guys who has very compartmentalized intellectual gifts.
You can't really compartmentalize a stupid concept and still be trusted to be smart about other things. If you don't accept the parallel postulate while appearing very adept at answering geometry problems that don't need it, your adeptness is always in danger of crumbling since there are always those problems out there that won't be answered right if you have the wrong axiom about parallel lines.
09-13-2014 , 02:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
If he is a YEC even black conservatives shouldn't vote for him. This whole thread is moot.
The thread is not moot if the question is who will vote for him rather than who should vote for him.

Unless the point of the thread was to try and convince people they should vote for Carson and you no longer feel that way after finding out about his religious views. And it would be kind of silly to advocate for Carson based mainly on him being a neurosurgeon with a presumed high intelligence level without bothering to research the man deeply enough to find out about his creationist views.
09-13-2014 , 02:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
You can't really compartmentalize a stupid concept and still be trusted to be smart about other things. If you don't accept the parallel postulate while appearing very adept at answering geometry problems that don't need it, your adeptness is always in danger of crumbling since there are always those problems out there that won't be answered right if you have the wrong axiom about parallel lines.
Does this mean that if Ben Carson were not retired, you would be uncomfortable utilizing his medical services if you were in need of someone with his specialty?
09-13-2014 , 02:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianNit
The thread is not moot if the question is who will vote for him rather than who should vote for him.

Unless the point of the thread was to try and convince people they should vote for Carson and you no longer feel that way after finding out about his religious views. And it would be kind of silly to advocate for Carson based mainly on him being a neurosurgeon with a presumed high intelligence level without bothering to research the man deeply enough to find out about his creationist views.
Right. I took out those words.
09-13-2014 , 03:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianNit
Does this mean that if Ben Carson were not retired, you would be uncomfortable utilizing his medical services if you were in need of someone with his specialty?
Only slightly. But you never know where the dingbat idea might creep into a decision.
09-13-2014 , 03:35 PM
The Republican brand is so damaged in the African-American community because of attacks on Obama, attacks on Michelle Obama, smearing Trayvon Martin, smearing Michael Brown, passing voter ID laws, and just generally saying racist ****, that the Republicans putting up a black candidate has a lot of headwinds and also will look like a naked ploy for the black vote.
09-13-2014 , 03:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Only slightly. But you never know where the dingbat idea might creep into a decision.
I would hazard a guess that it'd be extremely unlikely to, on the basis that a) if Carson had any sort of history of that, there's a good chance we'd have heard about it and/or he wouldn't have been able to progress as far as he did in the medical field and b) Young Earth creationism is a relatively "cheap" belief to hold in terms of real world consequences. This is based on the somewhat speculative idea of rational irrationality (Bryan Caplan, The Myth of the Rational Voter) in which people hold onto irrational beliefs that aren't personally costly because of some minor psychological benefits to holding them, but once the beliefs start having significant consequences they are much more likely to abandon them. If that's the case here, Carson is unlikely to have any silly ideas that have medical relevance.

      
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