Assuming a white Democratic opponent with typical views of the party. (Don't think it would matter much if its a male or female.)

I have no ulterior motive for asking, aside from the fact that it seems like an interesting question.

3.5%

12-15 percent IMO

You already did this thread with Herman Cain.

I think I'd take the under on 12% having looked at exit polling for 2000-2012

/thread

I'll say 20 percent on the theory that Carson made a strong "electability" argument in order to win the primary.

According to exit polls, % of black vote won by a Republican presidential candidate:

2012: 6%
2008: 4%
2004: 11%
2000: 9%

My guess is that Carson will do better than a white Republican vs Obama but that the racist rhetoric coming from Republicans has poisoned the brand so that Carson will do worse among blacks than a white Republican has done in the past against a white Democrat.

So, my guess is 7-8%.

It's no fun unless David gives us his absurdly high answer. Don't be shy, bro.

Just for you. 27% (Doesn't hurt that, unlike Herman Cain he almost certainly is going to have a higher IQ than his adversary.).

12 seems right

What would the number be if he ran as an independent?

Here's the old Cain thread

Sklansky thought 33% for Cain was "high but close" versus the first black President, so I suppose 27% is a backtrack.

That might be reasonable for a moderate Republican, but I think Carson's Tea Party positions would hurt him quite a bit among this overwhelmingly liberal demographic. Also, Obama would almost certainly be endorsing his successor and that would count for a fair amount.

Still, some otherwise conservative, weak black Republican candidates have done relatively well among blacks in various state elections according to exit polls. For instance, Kenneth Blackwell, the OH SoS who came under fire for voting machine irregularities in the 2004 election that were believed to have disproportionately affected blacks, still won 20% of the black vote despite losing by over 20 points overall. (Source in that thread somewhere).

My guesstimate is ~15%.

Have you just seen a picture of a black guy, heard about his job and assumed he is smart? If you listen to him speak he is just a standard barely functioning ****** hooked up to a mad libs machine that spews tired outdated talking points into his brain. Standard tea party android.

Also you clearly learned nothing from the Herman Cain thread. Black Republicans get a share of the vote that is more or less identical to white Republicans, with a small spike related to increased turnout of right leaning black voters. It is just unbelievably racist to claim that black people will vote for another black person with zero idea about his views.

Are you one of those people who are willing to categorize things that are nevertheless true as 'racist' because they reflect unfavorably towards a certain group?

If you think 93% of black people voted for Obama because 93% of black people agree with each other, you're incredibly naive.

Also, there's a meaningful portion of the black population who is disillusioned with the Democrat party and would cote Republican if they ran a trustworthy black candidate who wasn't a complete Uncle Tom (which, according to Democrats, all black Republicans are)

Again, you are a racist for thinking that.

You're an idiot for thinking its not true or that some ivory tower idealism negates reality.

If I have to be a 'racist' to take the side of the truth, call me a racist. I couldn't care less.

This guy is actually right in that last paragraph. If the Republican party evolved to the point where they could run a trustworthy black candidate, i.e. someone who isn't doing the Thomas Sowell con like Carson is, they absolutely could get a real chunk of the black vote.

But our boy WM2 ain't voting for that guy, so what's the point? Abandoning the white supremacy costs the GOP it's base. A black figurehead to talk about how food stamps is slavery and black poverty is because of rap and **** doesn't move the needle.

If I didn't vote for him, its because I don't like his ideas. I throwaway vote 3rd Party most of the time.

Naw man I think I've got you pegged

Naw dawg, you airballed this one.

"It's not racist if I loudly assert that it's true!"

You don't think he would beat Clinton or Biden on an IQ test held tomorrow? And you don't think that there are some black people who normally vote Democratic, but think its close, who would switch in a presidential race to a black candidate for a variety of thought out reasons? I partially agree with your last sentence but it doesn't apply to me.

So you're saying that it's bad for others to make dumb raced-based generalizations

But perfectly okay for you to do it?