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Upcoming AHCA House Vote: Thursday Night Showdown? Upcoming AHCA House Vote: Thursday Night Showdown?

03-24-2017 , 12:05 PM
Again, I don't see why there is so much urgency to get this done today. Rewrite it and come up with something better and do it again next week, next month or whenever.

But I suspect the answer is that they either don't want to pass a health care bill or this is the best they could do, regardless of the hasty way it was written and submitted.

And why would a loss here be so damaging to Trump and the GOP? If it doesn't pass, move on to the next item of your agenda.
03-24-2017 , 12:08 PM
Trump literally said, Do it now or we move on. There is no longer process without an immediate 360 on his part.
03-24-2017 , 12:13 PM
But why did he say that? You have a guaranteed GOP majority in congress and the presidency until early 2019. What's the rush?
03-24-2017 , 12:14 PM
A loss would be so damaging because the GOP has been talking repeal and replace for 7 years now. Scott Brown won Kennedy's legacy seat on this basically. They crushed the 2010 and 2014 midterms because of it. A big reason Trump is president is because of it.

Trump went ham on the ACA, Ben Carson I believe said it was worse than slavery or something. He made some absurd comment I'd have to look it up.

I could be wrong, but I think you may be seriously underestimating the amount of fomented rage that the GOP has created from this issue.

Who knows, politics has been bizarre lately. Maybe they fail and people say "Shrug, atleast Trump will do other stuff" but I really doubt it.
03-24-2017 , 12:18 PM
But why would they frame it as a "loss" if the vote doesn't pass today? They won't lose anything. There is no deadline to pass it. It's all arbitrary and self imposed. I agree that the whole thing is just bizarre and makes no sense.
03-24-2017 , 12:23 PM
It's almost as if they're looking for an excuse to keep Obama care, because they realize all alternatives are terrible
03-24-2017 , 12:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by synth_floyd
But why would they frame it as a "loss" if the vote doesn't pass today? They won't lose anything. There is no deadline to pass it. It's all arbitrary and self imposed. I agree that the whole thing is just bizarre and makes no sense.
Who says they won't lose anything if it isn't passed today?

I'm not saying every person that voted for Trump or in 2010-2014 is going to lose their **** but it is definitely a legitimate blow that Trump was elected to repeal and replace Obamacare and he couldn't pull it off.

Voters don't think it is arbitrary and self imposed, they want it repealed now.

Ryan stepping down as House speaker wouldn't shock me.
03-24-2017 , 12:38 PM
I know PredictIt has its flaws but it is currently at 80/20 that the bill won't pass the house today.
03-24-2017 , 12:39 PM
Rich Lowry: The Health Care Albatross

http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...batross-214942

This may be slow pony, but this article is a good accounting of the political quicksand in which Republicans find themselves.
03-24-2017 , 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by synth_floyd
But why would they frame it as a "loss" if the vote doesn't pass today? They won't lose anything. There is no deadline to pass it. It's all arbitrary and self imposed. I agree that the whole thing is just bizarre and makes no sense.
Because goalpost shifting. They know the bill is dead so Trump and the House have decided that passing the House is their new standard for winning. It's not even about the bill anymore, it's about getting what they've defined as a win. And Democrats seem to be OK with the shift because they think Trump & Co will still lose and it will be all the more embarrassing.
03-24-2017 , 12:43 PM
Twitter is full of stuff like this at the moment:



03-24-2017 , 12:51 PM
lol I would be a bit surprised on the bill being pulled. That really would double down on trump looking impotent after he not only demanded a vote but yes vote.
03-24-2017 , 12:54 PM
03-24-2017 , 12:55 PM
They definitely have to vote or Trump loses even more credibility.

If they truly don't have the votes, I believe Trump will release an angry communication saying that any R that votes no is to blame. And then let them vote
03-24-2017 , 12:59 PM
of course trump wants a vote. he can't keep his promises so he wants to blame the party for it.
03-24-2017 , 01:02 PM
Getting my popcorn ready for Trump Twitter meltdown tonight. If there's no vote, Ryan will get demolished on Twitter. If it's voted down, every R that votes no and Ryan going to get a tweet.
03-24-2017 , 01:05 PM
How does voting in the House happen? I've seen the tallies on TV when voting is happening, but not sure the mechanics.

Is it electronic? Can people change their vote? I assume you know who has voted and how (as they always show a live break-down of R vs. D). Is there a set of time that voting is open, or does it close when everyone had voted?
03-24-2017 , 01:10 PM
They have to have a vote, the idea in part is to force the NOs to go on record. Ryan can pull the vote (or McCarthy technically, not sure), but that would institute conflict with Trump. The whole idea is that Trump's calling their bluff, and it's not a bluff call if you fold before showdown.
03-24-2017 , 01:14 PM
Has anybody asked House republicans why they don't just repass the same Obamacare repeal bill that Obama vetoed? Maybe there is some inside baseball procedural reason why they can't....Or were they just trolling back then passing stuff only because they knew it wouldn't become law?
03-24-2017 , 01:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte
Has anybody asked House republicans why they don't just repass the same Obamacare repeal bill that Obama vetoed? Maybe there is some inside baseball procedural reason why they can't....Or were they just trolling back then passing stuff only because they knew it wouldn't become law?
Yeah that should be asked daily but just none of them will answer that. It would be good if people picked up on what happened there.
03-24-2017 , 01:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte
Has anybody asked House republicans why they don't just repass the same Obamacare repeal bill that Obama vetoed? Maybe there is some inside baseball procedural reason why they can't....Or were they just trolling back then passing stuff only because they knew it wouldn't become law?
Trolling - saying repeal Obamacare is a nice slogan, but actually repealing (with no replacement) all of it would be very unpopular (for instance anyone 18-26 or with a kid in that age is not going to be happy to lose coverage for them).
03-24-2017 , 01:20 PM
Yes they were just trolling in the past. They knew it would laways get vetoed. Now that it would get signed they don't want the it name on it.
03-24-2017 , 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
They have to have a vote, the idea in part is to force the NOs to go on record. Ryan can pull the vote (or McCarthy technically, not sure), but that would institute conflict with Trump. The whole idea is that Trump's calling their bluff, and it's not a bluff call if you fold before showdown.
Yeah I don't know that pulling the vote saves trump/Ryan much face I think it's a fail either way st this point but trump at least has a scapegoat if they force a vote.

I just don't know if calling the houses bluff will get it done. I think recess protests and constituency contacts have impacted congress members and I think at this point there is a decent chance they lose substantially.

Spicer just didn't deny that Ryan is telling trump right now is not going their way.

Also spicey said "I just realized yesterday was the 7 year anniversary of Obamacare". Although he did claim a vote is likely st 3:30-4:00pm
03-24-2017 , 01:26 PM
CNN Politics
March 24, 2017 12:39pm EDT
JUST IN

Source on Ryan/Trump meeting: "Not good"
From CNN's Phil Mattingly

Ryan’s visit to the White House is not to deliver good news, according to a GOP source.

The efforts on Capitol Hill to sway members are ongoing, but things aren’t heading in the right direction.

“Not good. Not good at all,” source said.

They’ve had few firm commitments from conservatives and have seen a continued exodus of moderates. This was exactly what House leadership was worried would happen when they changed the bill, the source notes.

Source would not speculate what happens next, but this is “obviously a crucial meeting”
03-24-2017 , 01:26 PM
CNN Politics
March 24, 2017 12:52pm EDT
JUST IN

House GOP doesn't have the numbers for the bill
From CNN's Dana Bash

A GOP source said Ryan is showing Trump the numbers, and asking what he wants him to do because the votes aren’t there at this point.

      
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