Upcoming AHCA House Vote: Thursday Night Showdown? - Page 2 - Politics and Economics

I agree that no version of this bill will pass Thursday. I'm trying to figure out whether or not either or both Trump and Ryan prefer to pull the bill to avoid the embarrassment of defeat or actually lose the vote to put even more pressure on the freedom caucus and other defectors.

Trump is Trump and wouldn't think twice about cuckolding Rs who dare to defy him, damn whatever political calculus may lay ahead. Ryan obviously has to be more practical in his machinations here, aware of the fact that the freedom caucus cost the previous speaker his job not so long ago.

I can't see whether or not come Thursday night, the Trump-Ryan alliance becomes strengthened in the face of resistance. Or maybe Ryan, who doesn't have the votes, shelves the bill and becomes the next target of an early morning unprecedential tweeetstorm.

They are going to pull off all stops. Ryan is not going to let his college dream die. They will get there and then let Senate vote it down.

03-22-2017 , 12:42 AM

#27

Trolly McTrollson

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Quote:

Originally Posted by golfnutt

They are going to pull off all stops. Ryan is not going to let his college dream die. They will get there and then let Senate vote it down.

What leverage does he have? Who wants to hitch their wagon to the guy with a 37% approval rate and an active FBI investigation?

03-22-2017 , 12:54 AM

#28

golfnutt

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

What leverage does he have? Who wants to hitch their wagon to the guy with a 37% approval rate and an active FBI investigation?

He will (most likely) be President in 2018 and he could make it very difficult for a candidate. Terrible to use that threat to get a vote. Should be against the law.

03-22-2017 , 01:00 AM

#29

einbert

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Quote:

What leverage does he have? Who wants to hitch their wagon to the guy with a 37% approval rate and an active FBI investigation?

U.S. Rep. Robert Aderholt meets with President Trump, will now support health care bill
http://whnt.com/2017/03/17/u-s-rep-r...lth-care-bill/

Quote:

U.S. Rep. Robert Aderholt has changed his mind about the GOP’s health bill after a meeting with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office Friday morning.

Aderholt was among a group of members of Congress who’d expressed reservations about the bill.

Trump invited the delegation to a meeting Friday morning.

Aderholt said he told the President he was concerned about language that could drive up health premiums for older and poorer Americans. He described the encounter in a news release.

“I expressed to the President my concern around the treatment of older, poorer Americans in states like Alabama. I reminded him that he received overwhelming support from Alabama’s voters,” Aderholt said. “The President listened to the fact that a 64-year-old person living near the poverty line was going to see their insurance premiums go up from $1,700 to $14,600 per year.”

Aderholt told WHNT News 19 he had a direct discussion with Trump.

“We looked face-to-face, he looked me in the eye and told me that this would be dealt with,” Aderholt said. “That the people of Alabama supported him greatly and that he wants to fix this problem.”

Aderholt said members of the House leadership were in the meeting, as well as White House staff. He said there is time to amend the bill in the House Rules Committee and even later as the bill makes its way through the Senate.

“And the leadership was in the room there, the House leadership, (U.S. Rep.) Steve Scalise, who is the Whip for the Republicans was in there,” Aderholt said. “He heard what the President said. He knows that this is very important to the President and I expect the President to live up to his commitment.”

Aderholt said he asked Trump if this was the bill that he supported. Aderholt said Trump told him, he supports it “1,000 percent.”

03-22-2017 , 01:36 AM

#30

synth_floyd

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They had 7 years to come up with a replacement and didn't and then pulled this bill out of their ass at the last minute. I'm not even sure what the point of the bill is. Like if Paul Ryan had a magic wand and could craft any bill on health care what would it be? No government subsidies or regulation of health care at all?

03-22-2017 , 09:02 AM

#31

Chippa58

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Quote:

Originally Posted by golfnutt

He will (most likely) be President in 2018 and he could make it very difficult for a candidate. Terrible to use that threat to get a vote. Should be against the law.

So Trump would do what? Endorse the republican incumbent's opponent in a primary? Certainly doesn't seem likely he would endorse a democrat in the general election.

Isn't it just as likely that Trumpcare, if passed in its current form, could have devastating and very unpopular effects by the midterms? If Trump were more popular or the bill was much better, then its a different story, but I think the GOP opponents are realizing the president's threats aren't worth worrying about.

03-22-2017 , 09:58 AM

#32

Trolly McTrollson

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lolz:

Quote:

As Trump and leaders in the House round up support for the bill ahead of a planned Thursday vote, some groups are threatening to retaliate against those who do support it, including the Club for Growth, the Heritage Foundation's political arm, and Americans for Prosperity, which is part of the expansive political pressure network established by the Koch brothers.

All three groups are “keying” the vote, which means it will be a factor in determining whether the groups deem a lawmaker to be sufficiently conservative. That opens up the possibility that some Republicans who vote in favor of the bill could face a primary challenge in next year’s congressional elections and may not be able to count on help from the Kochs and others.

03-22-2017 , 11:12 AM

#33

Onlydo2days

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Starting to look like it isn't going to pass.

Would think they would do the Boehner move and pull the vote rather than risk political embarrassment but who knows with this crew.

03-22-2017 , 11:18 AM

#34

Namath12

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Quote:

Originally Posted by synth_floyd

They feel like they have all their political capital tied up in this issue, for whatever reason. They're desperate to pass anything at this point so they can say look at us we did it we kept our promise!

03-22-2017 , 11:20 AM

#35

AllTheCheese

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It's pretty frightening that if this doesn't pass, it will be because it's not horrible enough.

03-22-2017 , 11:23 AM

#36

MrWookie

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chippa58

Yeah, part of why I'm a bit puzzled here about GOP congresscritters quaking in their boots is that Trump is not a creative or competent man, and so I'm wondering just what they fear.

1. Tweeting about them.
2. Threatening to throw them in jail?
3. Tweeting nice things about a primary opponent (not that Trump is competent enough to groom many/any good such opponents).

This isn't even a truly Trump bill, and it doesn't even seem to be that popular with Trump's core supporters, so angering that ~25% of the voting pool isn't even a huge risk.

03-22-2017 , 11:26 AM

#37

einbert

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Yeah I'm guessing they're far more worried about pissing off the lobbyists + insurance companies that fund their campaigns.

03-22-2017 , 11:27 AM

#38

Trolly McTrollson

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Quote:

Originally Posted by golfnutt

He will (most likely) be President in 2018 and he could make it very difficult for a candidate. Terrible to use that threat to get a vote. Should be against the law.

Or his approval rating could reach radioactive levels by 2018 and maybe these guys think it's better to be the first rat off the sinking ship.

03-22-2017 , 11:31 AM

#39

MrWookie

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Quote:

Originally Posted by einbert

Yeah I'm guessing they're far more worried about pissing off the lobbyists + insurance companies that fund their campaigns.

Exactly. I don't expect Trump to be sharp enough to affect funding effectively.

03-22-2017 , 11:37 AM

#40

Namath12

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I agree that it's about lobbyists too and insurers ldo love this bill, but the fact remains that a huge % of the dullards who still support Trump are votes they will need in 2018. Pissing them/Trump off might not mean **** for the next person who sits in their seat, but it means something to them for 2018 esp primary season. They're walking a very tight rope here.

03-22-2017 , 01:06 PM

#41

golfnutt

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

Or his approval rating could reach radioactive levels by 2018 and maybe these guys think it's better to be the first rat off the sinking ship.

Yep. That sure is a tough decision to make today. Might be the best thing for them to vote against the bill and use the Trump unfavorable rating to their advantage.

03-22-2017 , 01:14 PM

#42

dinopoker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by einbert

U.S. Rep. Robert Aderholt meets with President Trump, will now support health care bill
http://whnt.com/2017/03/17/u-s-rep-r...lth-care-bill/

Because Trump's word suddenly became good in the last what, 6 days since he was last busted lying to people's face?

This guy should talk to some of the orange man's contractors, it would give him a good idea as to how Trump treats promises.

03-22-2017 , 01:19 PM

#43

einbert

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http://www.cbsnews.com/media/7-thing...y-documents/2/

Quote:

The "playbooks" suggest that lack of funds shouldn't deter students from attending Trump University.

In one section, the guide suggests encouraging prospective students to put the tuition--which could be tens of thousands of dollars, depending on the program--on their credit cards.

"What most people do is handle the tuition by putting it on their credit cards because it gives them the ability to make very small monthly payments and maintain a low overhead to run their real estate project," it reads. "Then we tell them to use their success in real estate to pay off the banks in a couple of months or so."

The Trump University "playbooks" were very concerned with the "psychology" of selling its real estate seminars to potential customers.

In one section, staffers are encouraged to take clients on "the Roller Coaster of emotions."

"This sales process is based on managing the emotions of the client by focusing on the psychology of the sale," it reads.

03-22-2017 , 01:42 PM

#44

Klingbard

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https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/statu...02386748461057

Politico writer. Apparently, Trump raised $30MM last night for the NRCC. I'm not sure any freedom caucus members need these re-election funds more than, say, Rs in more moderate districts, but the pressure continues to build.

Also, another no vote has caved. And as we know, the bill is insufficiently cruel to the remaining Republican holdouts:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/844597428137480192

03-22-2017 , 02:21 PM

#45

Namath12

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noted racist Steve King is now also on board

03-22-2017 , 02:48 PM

#46

einbert

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Yeah at the end of the day, the Freedom guys are gonna be hard pressed to vote no on a bill that takes away health insurance from millions of "takers." The moderate republicans are gonna be the key.

03-22-2017 , 03:20 PM

#47

Alan C. Lawhon

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Quote:

Originally Posted by golfnutt

He will (most likely) be President in 2018 and he could make it very difficult for a candidate. Terrible to use that threat to get a vote. Should be against the law.

golfnutt:

It's premature to say that Trump will (most likely) still be President in 2018. In November of 1972, Richard Nixon was reelected in a landslide. Twenty-one months later he resigned in disgrace rather than face the virtual certainty of being tried (and convicted) in the Senate.

FBI Director Comey stated on Monday in sworn testimony that a counterintelligence investigation is currently ongoing - and has been ongoing since last July. That investigation is centered around people involved in Trump's campaign. Back during Watergate the Nixon crowd insisted no laws had been broken and nobody had done anything wrong. White House tapes - I've listened to them - later revealed the president himself counseling aides on how to lie and mislead a grand jury without committing perjury. (Nixon declared: "Perjury is a pretty hard rap to prove. You can always say 'I don't remember or I don't recall'.") Watergate proved conclusively that a President is capable of looking the American people in the eye and lying through his teeth.

I'm not saying Trump is another Nixon or that he is definitely a crook - that has not yet been determined. What I am saying is that a formal investigation is underway. We should await the results of that investigation. If people working for Trump have been involved in criminal activity, they may very well face criminal charges, possible conviction, and possible jail time. Right now there are no indictments, but there is a lot of "smoke" swirling around - and where there is smoke there is often fire. If people who worked for Trump are suddenly faced with the prospect of going to jail and being ruined financially, they're likely to start talking to prosecutors. (Howard Hunt, John Dean, James McCord, et al. didn't start talking to the Watergate special prosecutor until they had been convicted. Once they knew they were headed for jail, they started singing like Beverly Sills.) Once it became increasingly evident that our President was a crook, public opinion turned against him. The same can happen with Trump. If you want to call a 37 percent approval rating "popular," Trump may be popular now, but that can change in an instant.

03-22-2017 , 03:46 PM

#48

tiltstermc

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Namath12

That's what happens when you spend 7 years yelling about how bad Obummercare is and how its killing jerbs. They are literally the dog who caught its own tail.

03-22-2017 , 04:06 PM

#49

Victor

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Quote:

Originally Posted by einbert

Yeah at the end of the day, the Freedom guys are gonna be hard pressed to vote no on a bill that takes away health insurance from millions of "takers." The moderate republicans are gonna be the key.

seems that term is an oxymoron at this point