Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill]
Hahaha. UKIP probably won't win a single seat.
Balls is the front runner for Labour leader and he is the guy if they want to go lefter and hug the unions harder assuming wrongly is logical opposition platform to the Conservatives.
**** knows who else is a front runner, they aren't awash with famous powerful potential leaders. Miliband brother is probably the favoured centrist right now I would speculate without researching it.
Clegg is ironically the most powerful lib dem leader they have had but he is going to lead the party off a cliff because they were always the opposition party with dumb policies and could never survive actual politics with power.
Fwiw Clegg did well in those debates, debating Europe is never going be a good idea which is why it dumb he did it, especially second debate on tv.
Last I looked a Conservative led coalition government with a few less lib dems was the likely outcome in the next general.
Balls is not the frontrunner nor is he to the left of Milliband - who's as leftist a Labour leader as you could expect to get right now.
According to the markets the most likely outcome of the next election is a Labour win.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RowCoach
Okay, so looking at politicalbetting.com, UKIP could totally beat the Lib Dems by 5% of the total vote and crush the other 3rd parties and still not win a single seat? And the Lib Dems could win 19! That's screwed up.
Like by what % of the total vote would UKIP have to get to start gaining more seats than the Libs? Anyone have one of those swing calculators we can play with?
UKIP's support is pretty well dispersed all over the country and they are not at all entrenched in any constituencies. For all their faults the Lib Dems have very good local branches and MPs, and can focus their resources on the constituencies they feel they will win. In contrast, UKIP will struggle to field 5 competent candidates and, whilst enthusiastic, their grass-roots is not as efficient as the Lib Dem members. Finally, many potential Lib Dems will tactically vote Labour (or, less occasionally, Tory) whereas I get the feeling 'Kippers are more likely to just vote Ukip regardless of whether or not they have a chance in that particular constituency, so they may very well achieve a higher raw vote % than the Lib Dems without winning a seat.
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I think the most interesting thing to reflect on after this government is said and done will be the no vote in the AV referendum. If it had passed then this UKIP tremor could have genuinely turned into the earthquake Farage promised.