Not all those who voted SNP will vote for independence.

The Tories could have a leader elect at the GE while Cameron remain as PM. It's an unusual situation, first time we've had a PM win the election while saying he wont run again afaik.

Even so the 7/1 on Corbyn being next PM is looking like a mugs bet.

A scot was Prime Minister five and a half years ago! The PM before him was also born on Scotland and represented the very left wing North East.

Weirdly the adults six years ago weren't calling for a small part of Britain that was right wing to break free from the tyranny of democracy under Labour.

Also no, no PM will risk their own future with another referendum. Its just fantasy to think they would. There is literally nothing to gain.

If a coalition depends on it some politicians would sell their souls let alone agree to a referendum timed towards the end of the parliament.

It's more political posturing by NS at the moment. There's a real danger for the SNP that Labour under JC will do pretty well in Scotland and she would much prefer the debate is about independence than about policies.

WTF has nationality to do with it? What the Scots are after is the same as everyone else ie a government that represents their interests, regardless of where individual politicians may be born. What a bizarre statement.

A coalition with who? SNP and Tories? Labour would possibly never win a majority ever again without Scotland's seats, it'd be extremely hard at least.

Unless they thought they could devolve power and become like a regional force in the north I see no upside for Labour at all.

Even if you somehow guaranteed labour never wins a Scottish seat back their obvious move is to offer anything except a referendum. If SNP said no then they'd just go back to the electorate. SNP has literally nothing to offer anymore. They got their referendum, the Scottish part of Britain spoke clearly. If they can't move on they will be sidelined to irrelevance.

I don't think you understand what democracy is.

You certainly don't if you think a British PM's nationality is an important factor.

haha phil gonnae phil. anyway..

apparently the latest poll shows a majority would vote yes if there were a ballot now. For me the jury is out at the moment. It remains to be seen what if anything JC can do for social justice* across the whole UK. If the end game is reached then independence wouldn't be at all exciting for me. I'm still not voting for his party at the elections though. In Scotland Labour has some really ugly characters masquerading as 'social democrats' or some other such disguise, and the people currently have a strong bitter taste from the experience. It will take a hell of a lot more than JC doing his thing in London for Labour to become credible in Scotland again. I think I also read a poll recently that said only a small % would be swayed by JC becoming leader.

Corbyn's shadow cabinet appointments are just laughably bad. Full of absolute dinosaurs and proposing no women in the four Great Offices of State.

I've not been quite as pessimistic about Corbyn's chances as most observers, but he has absolutely **** the bed on this one. If, if, he had filled his shadow cabinet with Blairites and voices from all factions of the party, and if he generally moderated his tone, then his party could have provided some competent opposition and maybe sneaked an election, given the Tories proclivity to self-destruct. As is, they have no chance.

Party on, Tories, party on.

He gave Burnham the Home Office, the only reason Burnham is no longer considered a Blairite is it became obvious that being a Blairite is toxic. There's also the question of which other Blarites would serve in a Corbyn cabinet, he did give Eagle, Business and she will deputise and lead the opposition if he misses PM questions.

I can't see any situation in which that would be the case. It would be so hard for the new leader to assert their authority with Cameron still mugging about. I think the smart money is him stepping down with a little over a year left, the Torys run a short election and give the new guy a year. Would be happy to bet on something to that effect if anyone fancies too.

I think you're massively overthinking this. Labour don't have a women problem and (it looks like) he's got a pretty dead on 50/50 gender split in the Cabinet. Women in health, business, and education too.

I'm obviously not saying he will win, like you Bertie I'm not as down on him as others seem to be, but I don't think today will make much of a difference.

Corbyn's shadow cabinet is brilliant, except for Burnham and Eagle, although Burnham seems like he'd do anything to be liked.

If he had done the same as you suggest, he would have been as well staying on the back benches, or maybe just resigning this morning, telling the world "hey **** you i was only joking ya ****s".

When I talk about a 2 horse race, I'm taking about the leader of the conservatives v Jeremy Corbyn. Your scenario is just too unlikely - Corbyn being strong enough to reverse the Tory majority, but not being strong enough to hang on to the leadership - to be considered likely. Bookies are not offering odds, but my guess would be at least 25-1 for that scenario.

This is however pretty much exactly how it will happen. Cameron 9-2 to be PM after 2020. Bookies also have him slightly worse than even money to step down in either 2018 or 2019.

I felt that CallMeDave was the unctuous slimeball with the PR background, chosen as leader to get the Tories into power. Now they've done that I expect the really ugliness to emerge ie Johnson or Osborne.

That's the race I though you meant but that's not what the 7/1 reflects.

Doesn't tell us much about his chances of winning that race. It's more like 3/1 and probably even tighter as JC still being leader increases the chance he is doing pretty well.

It's going to be tough for Corbyn but I don't think anyone knows how this will pan out.

It's not just how JC does. A lot will depend on how good a job people in Scotland think the SNP are doing. So much easier for the SNP to do so well when they were the only left wing party.

It does seem that way but equally it seems like there is actually now a party that stands up for the best interests of Scotland, rather than one which is London centric pretending so.

It's possible you are correct and Scotland has passed a tipping point. Then again their might be a very significant soft vote that just disliked new Labour too much to vote for them.

Interesting times ahead.

You're assuming Cameron cares. He sometimes gives me the impression of such elevated privilege that being PM is nothing particularly special to him - 'bit of a chore but one has to do one's duty, jolly good lark what ho'. Then it depends whether Cameron has 'his man' he wants to succeed him and if an opportunity arises that is favorable (or a man/woman he hates and a good moment to beat them)

I'm also not sure any leader-elect has an authority problem. The party will be licking his or her boots in anticipation of cookies after the election. It's the ideal position of everyone wanting your favour while not having to make enemies by favouring others.

Osborne is Cameron's man

Certainly appears that way.

I hate to rule out the possibility he actually loathes him and/or would take great delight in stabbing him in the back

It's Boris Johnson that Cameron will delight stabbing in the back, or perhaps more accurately administering death by a thousand cuts.

You're right I overreacted a little, most people will not know nor care who John McDonnell is and I shouldn't have forgotten that.

However, I do stand by my general point that, from a tactical standpoint, his shadow cabinet was poorly chosen.

Corbyn does have some advantages, people react well to his anti-politics image and he can attack the Tories from far more angles than a Tory-lite candidate ever could. He does, however, have to work to dull some of his sharper edges, especially on foreign policy, and look to counter - or at least mitigate - Tory attacks centring on the (ample) incendiary things he has said. Employing McDonnell - a man who has made an even greater number of stupid, incendiary things - is not the way to do that, nor will it calm those many leftists who think Corbyn is a little too extreme.

Angela Eagle would have been a much better choice, hell, even Andy Burnham - for all his countless faults (the guy is at best a 2/10 politician) - would have been a much better pick for Chancellor.

I wouldn't be so sure. His appointment and views on various matters such as the IRA etc were the main story on the BBC news.

The Tories and most of the media were always going to push that and trident as much as possible and it might work. I doubt the appointment of McDonnell makes much difference.

It's already decided we just don't know the answer yet.