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Originally Posted by Alan C. Lawhon
57 On Red:
It appears that Theresa May is caught between a rock and a hard place ... she's damned if she does and damned if she doesn't. If she doesn't remain "hard" on Brexit, she loses the support of hard Brexit MPs. On the other hand, if she remains hard on Brexit, she loses the support of the DUP - along with her [very slim] ruling coalition. So it appears that she's being forced to choose between [political] death by hanging or [figuratively] being shot. Either way it appears she's doomed as PM.
What happens if Ms. May, seeing the writing on the wall, decides she would rather resign - and retain a shred of dignity - rather than face a vote of no confidence in the Parliament? If Ms. May were to announce she was stepping down before the scheduled "Queen's Speech" on June 28, would that mean another general election?
Since you folks are British and I'm a "Yank" (Ha! Ha!), what do you think the chances are that Ms. May will announce she is stepping down as PM prior to June 28? (Just curious ...)
This is almost as good as watching Ian Richardson playing the dastardly Francis Urquhart in "House of Cards" thirty-five years ago.
A week is a long time in politics (copyright Harold Wilson), but unless the 1922 Committee tell her she's had it I'd expect May to keep on trying to get her Queen's Speech through. If she does it, she technically commands the confidence of the House and she can carry on for the time being. It's harder for any other party to form a government and other top Tories may not fancy the poisoned chalice much at the moment. If she does come undone the situation's even less clear and we might need another general election, but the Tories would rather avoid that as the wind is with Labour (plus voters might punish the Tories for making a hash of it and dragging everyone out to the polls again).
How she or anyone else squares the Brexit circle is hard to see, as her own MPs are divided on it. She could probably get cross-party support for a softer Brexit (whatever that actually meant), as Labour would be in favour and many Tory MPs are pro-Europe not least for business reasons -- business doesn't see much sense in hard Brexit. But May seems more inclined to hard Brexit and the DUP might settle for a deal that just butters up Northern Ireland.
House of Cards was written by a former speechwriter, adviser and party chief-of-staff to Margaret Thatcher, so he knew whereof he spake, though of course he gave it the old Richard III treatment for style points.