People underestimate the chances of a black swan event occurring prior to it occurring and then overestimate the chances of it occurring after it does occur. This goes for terrorist attacks, hurricanes, Chernobyl disasters and tower block fires. So yes, two deaths per 7 years was "misleading" as is 70-100 deaths per week.
Whatever happened was an extremely unusual occurrence, for example:
i) The government said today the more flammable type of cladding shouldn't (according to regulations) be used in flats about the 18th floor. It may be these regulations are widely adhered to and Grenfell Tower is one of the few exceptions.
ii) The fire started around 01:00 and spread over the next few hours meaning residents were generally at home and asleep. A similar fire at 13:00 would have been
much less deadly.
iii) The weather was 17c at 01:00 which is unusually warm for London.
iv) The wind was
2 MPH. The wind is that slow for a few hours every month. IANAFE but cuold the fire spread slower if the wind was a more normal 8-12 MPH? Perhaps faster winder would supply the fire with oxygen and it would actually spread more rapidly? I don't know.
v) The flats all had apparently fire resistant doors to restrict fires to the flat it started in. And yet for the flat it started in, this apparently wasn't the case. What happened? Perhaps the guys who refurbished the flat were cowboys and used a cheaper, non fire resistant door to save money. Perhaps the flat owner had his window open since it was an unusually pleasant day without which the fire wouldn't have spread.
vi) Perhaps the original fire (allegedly due to a faulty refrigerator) was minor & would have been extinguished without incident had it occurred an hour earlier when the flat owner was awake.
vii) Perhaps the original fire (allegedly due to a faulty refrigerator) was minor & would have been extinguished without incident had the flat owner not forgotten to replace the battery in his smoke detector (seriously, how many flats/houses have functional smoke detectors in need of a battery change? It's very common).
viii) Did the block have fire stops between floors? If so why didn't they work? If not why not? If 95% of UK tower blocks have inter-floor fire stops between floors I would view the lack of fire stops as specific to Kensington council/the refurbishers of Grenfell Towers. If 10% of UK tower blocks have inter-floor fire stops it's potentially a UK wide regulatory issue.
ix) Residents were given advice to stay in their flats in case of a fire in the building. This advice was predicated on the notion that any fire would be contained to one flat. When it became clear the fire
wasn't contained to one flat, why wasn't advice given via loudspeaker to evacuate the building ASAP?
A resident called 999 at 00:54 and the fire department arrived at 01:00.
This is the building at 01:30
This is the building at 02:10
The Fire Department gave advice at 04:15 to contact residents via phone/social media and tell them to vacate the building.
This is the building at 04:20
I do not understand why advice was not given to urgently vacate the building the moment the fire spread across floors, which presumably had already occurred by the time the fire brigade arrived at 01:00.
I want to know how many of the dead phoned 999 and were told to stay in their flats. I think the number will be all of them. There is no doubt many causes and much blame but I am perplexed the decision not to evacuate the building and believe the inquests/inquiries will lay a lot of blame at the feet of the senior fire officer(s) who told the residents to stay put. Had residents been ordered to evacuate at 01:10 I think we'd have less than 10 deaths.