This whole referendum is going to be so tilting.

Actual verbatim from a voxpop on BBC 1pm news.

There is always the possibility to pass 'exigent circumstances' legislation, in the same way that the Schengen countries have unilaterally re-introduced border controls. I don't see anyone suing them for infringing their rights of free movement.

I also don't see France and Italy being taken to court for their blatant protectionism in segregating their poker player pools from UK located operators.

Every sovereign state breaks the rules in their own interests. If we decide that paying in-work benefits to EU migrants isn't in ours then we shouldn't do it.

I facepalmed that pretty hard as well.

I'm voting to get out. Will the pubs be open on Referendum Day?

You can equally argue that the "no second referendum" is a ploy from the EU/in campaign to scare people into maintaining the status quo.

The reality is that should we vote to leave, then at some level the UK and EU will have some discussions about how we might stay. If the UK leaves and thrives, then it's the beginning of the end for the EU.

Why wouldn't they be?

Colonials don't get a vote

Pubs will be open there will be much drinking. Some will vote.

That made me feel better about 'murica.

Sure, provided it is taken into account in the cost benefit analysis how the rest of the EU would react.

Believing that there'd be no reaction cos Schengen and Poker might not be the world's best assumption.

Lol why? In America that guy would be presenting the news not just being a random guy they found on the street.

In America that guy would be the Republican nominee for president.

The European Court of Human Rights is an instrument of the Council of Europe, not the EU. (Though note that if the UK leaves the EU we will automatically be ejected from the Council of Europe unless membership is renegotiated within two years.)

The ECHR's rulings are not necessarily valid in the UK courts. When the ECHR ruled that whole-life terms for some murderers were illegal, the UK Supreme Court told Strasbourg to take a hike because the Home Secretary's discretion to order any prisoner's release on compassionate grounds means that no one is condemned without hope of release, and when another killer brought a similar suit the ECHR, after negotiations with the British government, admitted that they were a bunch of idiots and reversed the previous ruling.

Anyone up for a session?

Haha, wish I could but I need to grind tonight. (also ICWUDT in case you're wondering)

A UK operator can apply for a license tomorrow. Germany was recently told that its gambling law was not compatible.

I repeat if we were simply to deny in work benefits to a EU migrant, they would easily win in court.

What are you waffling on about? Who mention the ECHR? They have nothing to do with the single market and the EU court that settles disputes about the single market which was the subject being discussed.

edit perhaps I should have used the full name European Court of Justice

IDS arguing for leaving and Ken Clarke arguing for staying on newsnight.

Both ****s, I don't trust either to tell me the truth and I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking like that.

Unlikely I'll be voting unless the stayers get someone that doesn't have the stink of the tories talking to me.

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How ****e is newsnight without Paxman? and this ****er wouldn't look out of place doing a refurb your house show.

Well tell me this - I am currently an EU citizen. Does the UK government have the right to repudiate my citizenship without my express consent should I wish to remain an EU citizen? Could this be tested in court iyo?

Wrt good outcomes, a referendum on Europe is just a bad idea.

Untrained and uneducated people are terrible at predicting the effects of any policy, never mind the effects of an incredibly complex and far reaching policy like the Brexit. They have no idea how the EU works or how the economy is going to be affected. They ignore research that contradicts what Farage and Boris say because 'they got it wrong about the Euro too!' They will not be able to determine what's in their best interests. If there is a referendum at all, it should be over general objectives and values, not over opinions on what evidence and models say the effects of leaving the EU will be. Asking the people about the latter makes about as much sense as having them vote on whether gravitational waves were found at LIGO.

But even if if we allow people to set objectives and values in a referendum, from an outcome perspective, we would still be better off if we gave more weight to those values that people hold robustly because they are closely connected to their well-being, as opposed to foaming-at-the-mouth-anger that reflects whatever misinformation the tabloids expose them to.

People's stable interests are having a job, a decent pay with the prospect of wage growth, affordable housing, healthcare etc. Staying in the EU is the preferable course of action wrt those goals. Yet ask people about their interests in the context of a Brexit, and you'll get some nonsense about billions flowing to Johnny Foreigner's children in Poland, you'll get some idiots parroting IDS on how being in the EU increases the risk ISIS rampage through London and once you've pointed out that there's no evidence for any of that, you'll get some vague mentions of 'sovereignty'. The Sun and the Mail relentlessly demonising the EU for decades has nurtured a deep and irrational anger against it that doesn't hinge on any real thing that's actually happening in the EU.

Letting the people decide the EU question in a referendum means willfully ignoring that they can't work out what the consequences of the Brexit are, and even if they could, it means giving undue weight to those of their preferences that are the result of being brainwashed by the tabloids

The out campaign only has Boris when they want a likeable name and he isn't known for making nuanced detailed arguments.

They are screwed.

Lol IDS should suggest leaving is the only way to save the pound.

For the most part i tend to agree that this is too important for a referendum but if you can't convince half the electorate of the case then it totally defeats the idea this debate has an obviously correct side.

If you show studies where the economy shrinks x% and unemployment rises y% people will vote to stay in. Low info voters are not no info voters.

I'm not entirely sure how this **** is calculated and I've studied more economics than like 97% of the country. But i can read two numbers and trust an independent expert and low info voters are the same.

End of the day I'll be fine, especially if i can get into liquidations and recovery accounting like i want. Not a lot of people will be able to say the same. Unsurity is the key to victory for the stay camp.

Fwiw in abstract strategy terms i like Boris's position. He surely increased his leadership equity a solid twenty points with this move.

Its kinda like burning the country to rule the ashes if out is as bad as it appears, but that's how democracy works i guess.

Not disagreeing with the rest of your post but the UK's position on Europe has been destructive both to the UK and the rest of Europe.

Some democratic legitimacy will be a very good outcome. Should have happened decades ago when it was about the principle of the EU. Now the danger is it will be heavily influenced by Islamophobia.

In the context of the next Tory leadership election Boris doesn't even need Brexit to occur to be the front-runner. He has likely locked up enough nominations from Eurosceptic MPs to get onto the ballot, and will then go on to have the support of the (mostly OUT) Tory grassroots in the subsequent election. It's been masked somewhat by defections to UKIP and the 2015 election result, but there are large sections of the Conservative grassroots who despise Cameron. Johnson has signaled that he may be the man they can rally round.

Cameron won't be contesting the next GE. I guess it will be Johnson v Osborne, May et al for the leadership with Johnson a shoe in if the Out campaign has won, but not so clear if it's lost.