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A two-state solution for Ukraine?  The Ongoing Ceasefire That Isn't A two-state solution for Ukraine?  The Ongoing Ceasefire That Isn't

03-01-2014 , 10:20 PM
Pando claims USAID funded some groups which overthrew Ukrainian government, but whether supporting NGOs funding transparency is a bad thing, and whether that amounts to funding regime change. idk

http://pando.com/2014/02/28/pierre-o...ocuments-show/
Neo-Fascists and Smiley-Face Neoliberals
03-01-2014 , 11:03 PM
Lol 3rd post, sorry to late to delete.

While the claim is true (link 2), that first link is crap. sorry

In "The Intercept" Glenn Greenwald respond and called out the lies:

https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2...-independence/

Ill stfu now
03-01-2014 , 11:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yeSpiff
Hmm International law. Whats that?
Is that the thing you use to put Africans in prison for violating?
That don't apply to China, the US, and Russia, Oh and Israel.
Great

Send in Grizy, imo. hes ready
I didn't even say we "must" go.

I said if we support the opposition (aka, provisional government), then we need to go. Half-assed support leads to complete chaos in Libya and Syria. Idealism without strength and will is nothing but sophistry.
03-01-2014 , 11:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yeSpiff
Lol 3rd post, sorry to late to delete.

While the claim is true (link 2), that first link is crap. sorry

In "The Intercept" Glenn Greenwald respond and called out the lies:

https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2...-independence/

Ill stfu now
No need to stfu! This is interesting stuff on both sides - thanks for the links. And there is now a response to the response.
03-01-2014 , 11:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeepFryer
No need to stfu! This is interesting stuff on both sides - thanks for the links. And there is now a response to the response.
Thanks for link. I think the "assault on the privacy" fight trumps all..
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
I didn't even say we "must" go.

I said if we support the opposition (aka, provisional government), then we need to go. Half-assed support leads to complete chaos in Libya and Syria. Idealism without strength and will is nothing but sophistry.
Just kidding.

But its interesting to note that US media portray NATO expansionism as benign or irrelevant and Russian efforts to keep it at bay as "aggression" and "interference."

Last edited by yeSpiff; 03-02-2014 at 12:07 AM. Reason: Don't like the Hammer and Sickle or the Star Spangled Banner
03-01-2014 , 11:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
US operational capability is very very strong right now. The region happens to be close to both the command centers of both Centcom and Eucom.

It just so happens we've been ramping up assets in Turkey and North Africa in response to the Syrian crisis as well. USS Nimitz has been off the coast of Syria for months. Ukraine is within F-16's combat radius from the Incirlik Air Force base in Turkey (with refueling).

All the military assets are in place to wage a conflict of any scale in the region. The question is one of will, not capability.
I phrased my post poorly. I mean primarily the bolded. I don't think anyone is actually interested in going to war with a nuclear-armed foe over Ukraine.
03-02-2014 , 12:31 AM
Most elaborate closing ceremonies ever.
03-02-2014 , 12:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turn Prophet
I phrased my post poorly. I mean primarily the bolded. I don't think anyone is actually interested in going to war with a nuclear-armed foe over Ukraine.
The problem is Putin believes this (why wouldn't he?) about Obama.

I suspect Obama, like rest of the world, isn't so sure about Putin.

Putin, as we type this right now, has seized first mover advantage and I am really not sure we can do anything about it without putting serious chips on the table.
03-02-2014 , 12:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
The problem is Putin believes this (why wouldn't he?) about Obama.

I suspect Obama, like rest of the world, isn't so sure about Putin.

Putin, as we type this right now, has seized first mover advantage and I am really not sure we can do anything about it without putting serious chips on the table.
Well, the situation is complicated in that no matter what Obama chooses to do, it will inevitably be wrong in the eyes of the GOP. He gave kind of the obligatory "there will be costs" speech, but it's pretty apparent that neither he nor anyone else knows what those costs might be.

But in all seriousness, this might be the opening gambit not to WW3, but to a new Cold War, one that is less based on ideology than the first, but no less dangerous.
03-02-2014 , 12:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
It's time to make a decision: support the provisional government or not? If so, they've already asked for European and NATO help and we have treaty obligations. It's time move in.
do you have to meet obligations if some criminals applied to you?
Excuse me,why dont you ask LEGETIMITE president of Ukraine?
you think russians forgot how you threw bombs on Yugoslavia in the centre of Europe, supporting separatists, and didnt give a damn about obligations and agreements?
Yanukovich is a weak president... when radicals started to hold goverment buildings he should have acted like the president of US in Los-Angeles in 1992. Instead he was repeating:no shooting! no arms to police!

Facts you need to know about Crimea and why it is in turmoil
http://rt.com/news/crimea-facts-protests-politics-945/





Anyway i think Putin's game much more precise than "west democrats way" -invasion....
03-02-2014 , 01:03 AM
I wish Panetta, Mullen, Clinton, and Petraeus were still part of Obama's team.
03-02-2014 , 01:15 AM
At first I was like WW3, then I was like Cold War 2, now I'm like, hoping this lasts for a month to keep me entertained until Game of Thrones Season 4 (April 6th). What's the end game for Putin, does he actually want to annex Crimea, realistically split Ukraine in two, have land battles with the Ukrainian military? The weight of world opinion will not be pro Russian, Putin doesn't want to be isolated on the world stage, that will cost him dearly over time. I see this fizzling out after this show of force, assuming someone doesn't miscalculate and do something truly stupid, and ultimately Putin will opt for sub Cold War levels of sabotage and subterfuge ie par for the course.
03-02-2014 , 01:18 AM
The view that Obama is somehow weak (for not starting a war), is ridiculous.
03-02-2014 , 01:51 AM
I seriously wonder if the Olympics weren't going on in Sochi – if the Russians would've stepped in sooner before their puppet president fled the country. What an amazing quirk of history if true.
03-02-2014 , 01:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smrk2
At first I was like WW3, then I was like Cold War 2, now I'm like, hoping this lasts for a month to keep me entertained until Game of Thrones Season 4 (April 6th). What's the end game for Putin, does he actually want to annex Crimea, realistically split Ukraine in two, have land battles with the Ukrainian military? The weight of world opinion will not be pro Russian, Putin doesn't want to be isolated on the world stage, that will cost him dearly over time. I see this fizzling out after this show of force, assuming someone doesn't miscalculate and do something truly stupid, and ultimately Putin will opt for sub Cold War levels of sabotage and subterfuge ie par for the course.
In what ways would this isolate Russia on the world stage? A move like this strengthens his position domestically and raises his standing with countries not friendly toward the US/NATO.

Meanwhile, Russia is the largest supplier of oil and natural gas to the European Union.

I think the most probable end game is the provisional government giving Russia reassurances with regards to the Sevastopol naval base, which currently is vital to Russian black sea fleet (due to lack of alternatives in short term.) In the long term, Russians have other alternatives in the Black Sea.

Last edited by grizy; 03-02-2014 at 02:08 AM.
03-02-2014 , 02:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
In what ways would this isolate Russia on the world stage? A move like this strengthens his position domestically and raises his standing with countries not friendly toward the US/NATO.
G8 - 1 = G7, it ain't nothin'

Quote:
Meanwhile, Russia is the largest supplier of oil and natural gas to the European Union.
And the Europeans will respond positively to this? They will soften their posture towards Russia if Putin punitively raises the price of gas?

Quote:
I think the most probable end game is the provisional government giving Russia reassurances with regards to the Sevastopol naval base, which currently is vital to Russian black sea fleet (due to lack of alternatives in short term.) In the long term, Russians have other alternatives in the Black Sea.
That's a reasonable conclusion. As long as nobody starts shooting, all sides should ship it because the alternative is quite horrible.
03-02-2014 , 02:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smrk2
At first I was like WW3, then I was like Cold War 2, now I'm like, hoping this lasts for a month to keep me entertained until Game of Thrones Season 4 (April 6th). What's the end game for Putin, does he actually want to annex Crimea, realistically split Ukraine in two, have land battles with the Ukrainian military? The weight of world opinion will not be pro Russian, Putin doesn't want to be isolated on the world stage, that will cost him dearly over time. I see this fizzling out after this show of force, assuming someone doesn't miscalculate and do something truly stupid, and ultimately Putin will opt for sub Cold War levels of sabotage and subterfuge ie par for the course.
Ok, just to say against myself, if you want to get worked up and think WW3/cold war is coming read through Dan Carlin's forum thread on his recent Common Sense show "Poking the Bear" here, pretty epic.
03-02-2014 , 04:43 AM
Crimeans extremely upset over their Russian overlords.







The selfie that sparked WWIII.

Last edited by suzzer99; 03-02-2014 at 04:50 AM.
03-02-2014 , 05:55 AM
If you're looking for a laugh check out rt.com, which is the English arm of Russia's state owned media. Right now they are in all out propaganda mode. The articles they've posted about Ukraine look like something out of Pyongyang. According to the site the pro-EU leaders are all nazis and fascists working with Al Qaeda. And everyone in Ukraine is waving Russian flags. And the best part is that every single comment on every article is Pro-Russia and Pro-Putin.

I know Russia isn't a true democracy and doesn't have a truly free society. But I never realized it was that bad.
03-02-2014 , 06:13 AM
Gotta get that RT news app for Windows phone.
03-02-2014 , 06:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Crimeans extremely upset over their Russian overlords.
Well, the entire point of Russia moving in is to protect an ethnic Russian majority who already has (and wants more) autonomy from Ukraine, so this reaction isn't surprising.

Although, the Crimean Tatars (who were forced to relocate by Stalin decades ago) are quite unhappy with Russia.
03-02-2014 , 06:36 AM
I don't think too many peoples in that region are happy with anyone. It's sort of like the cold Middle East.
03-02-2014 , 07:22 AM
Russian army has no buissnes doing anything in any reigion in Ukraine, no matter what ethnicity majority of population is in that region.
03-02-2014 , 07:22 AM
All they need to do is threaten to freeze Putin's and his oligarch friends assets abroad and I'm sure they will come to their senses.
03-02-2014 , 09:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bandz
Russian army has no buissnes doing anything in any reigion in Ukraine, no matter what ethnicity majority of population is in that region.
Exactly.

So what do you guys think? This going to break out into a serious confrontation?

      
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