Trump Presidency Predictions Thread - Page 5 - Politics and Economics

So, hypothetically speaking, If one were upper middle class (family income ~300k/yr) and has a high 6/low 7 figure inheritance coming sometime in the next few years Trump getting elected should be a good thing, right?

I'd say 90% chance your life gets a little better financially, 10% chance we're either in WW3 or great depression pt 2. You can do your own Bayesian analysis on that.

11-09-2016 , 02:08 PM

#102

ScreaminAsian

For President

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 33,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by CharlieDontSurf

Trump lets Pence do all the heavy lifting and is just a figure head.

the one sliver of hope i have for the trump administration is online poker nationally in the US and i'm afraid you're right here

11-09-2016 , 02:21 PM

#103

florentinopeces

old hand

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 1,199

Trades Putin Alaska for a mansion in Crimea, on the Black Sea.

11-09-2016 , 02:27 PM

#104

Chuck Bass

World's Most Interesting Procrastinator

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 9,480

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian

the one sliver of hope i have for the trump administration is online poker nationally in the US and i'm afraid you're right here

Didn't Adelson raise infinite money for Trump's campaign? So probably not.

11-09-2016 , 02:31 PM

#105

goofyballer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 70,719

The Trump tax plan really ****s single filers:

Bracket	2015 IRS	Trump
0-9k	10%	12%
9k-37k	15%	12%
37k-91k	25%	25%
91k-113k	28%	25%
113k-189k	28%	33%
189k-411k	33%	33%
411k-413k	35%	33%
413k+	39.6%	33%

Single filers who used to pay 28% on income from $112k-$189k would pay 33% in his plan, but rich people get a nice 6% cut over 400k. Trump truly a man of the common people.

Standard deduction is increased from $6,300 to $15,000 for single filers, which helps a little bit but I think you'd wind up paying about $1k more in taxes on income of $190k despite that.

For married filing jointly, it's a bit better:

Bracket	2015 IRS	Trump
0-18k	10%	12%
18k-75k	15%	12%
75k-151k	25%	25%
151k-225k	28%	25%
225k-230k	28%	33%
230k-412k	33%	33%
412k-465k	35%	33%
465k+	39.6%	33%

Plus a 17k increase in the standard deduction.

11-09-2016 , 03:10 PM

#106

Morphismus

BBV Poker Player of 2022

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 24,271

NSFW language: https://youtu.be/K76pzZb0hXo?t=40

11-09-2016 , 03:14 PM

#107

simplicitus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 10,840

Prediction: one day a Trump supporter will make a post that isn't complete derp.

11-09-2016 , 03:46 PM

#108

zikzak

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 22,199

11-09-2016 , 03:53 PM

#109

pvn

Guest

Posts: n/a

reports are NEWT for Secretary of State, RUDY for Atty general

god help us

11-09-2016 , 04:00 PM

#110

florentinopeces

old hand

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 1,199

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian

the one sliver of hope i have for the trump administration is online poker nationally in the US and i'm afraid you're right here

Why would a casino guy support online poker?

11-09-2016 , 04:00 PM

#111

2/325Falcon

Conehead

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 21,907

Hopefully Newt keeps pushing for a Moon base.

11-09-2016 , 04:02 PM

#112

Loki

binary duo

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 12,772

Trump already getting shot down by Congress on his I WILL GIVE YOU ALL YOUR HOPES, DREAMS, AND UNICORNS

Mitch McTurtle says term limits is never ****ing happening.

So there's that last minute, hail mary promise grounded

#DrainTheSwamp dead before it started

11-09-2016 , 04:04 PM

#113

zikzak

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 22,199

Quote:

Originally Posted by pvn

reports are NEWT for Secretary of State, RUDY for Atty general

god help us

But people keep trying to assure me that everything will be OK because the country will actually be run by competent technocrats.

11-09-2016 , 04:06 PM

#114

will1530

self-banned

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 5,773

So, Pence is the guy right? No way Trump actually bothers himself with governing?

11-09-2016 , 04:17 PM

#115

darksideofthewal

adept

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 887

A token border wall gets built.
More shale gas drilling.
Big tax cuts.
Walks back tax cuts when the deficit gets to big, Reagan style.
Runs in 2020 but gets defeated because many disappointed former supporters stay home.

11-09-2016 , 04:24 PM

#116

markksman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,921

I woke up and thought it was all a dream and wanted to go back to sleep.

The over/under on insulting foreign leaders to the brink of war is 7 in the first twelve months.

11-09-2016 , 04:26 PM

#117

bbfg

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 12,264

His approval ratings will be higher amongst democrats than amongst republicans

11-09-2016 , 04:27 PM

#118

amoeba

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 20,431

Quote:

Originally Posted by zikzak

But people keep trying to assure me that everything will be OK because the country will actually be run by competent technocrats.

This election is a pretty clear indicator that people are tired of technocrats.

(Not that Hilary was really a technocrat) but still.

I am still scared ****less right now.

11-09-2016 , 04:31 PM

#119

sofocused978

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Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 6,765

Has he done a China man impression yet?

11-09-2016 , 04:35 PM

#120

miajag

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 17,328

Quote:

Originally Posted by darksideofthewal

Runs in 2020 but gets defeated because many disappointed former supporters stay home.

Assuming the DNC learned their lesson.

But, you're right that there are gonna be a lot of disappointed people when Daddy hasn't magicked those manufacturing jobs back into existence in four years. As someone else suggested, a massive WPA-style infrastructure project would be the best thing Trump could champion, both for America and for his electoral chances in 2020. Doubt it happens though.

11-09-2016 , 04:37 PM

#121

daca

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,499

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuck Bass

The media here in Europe is going completely nuts, pretty much expecting Putin to march into the Baltics etc. There's obviously a bunch of hyperboling involved, but I'd be interested to hear from smart posters about their views on what this will likely mean from a global/world peace/Russia standpoint. What do you predict will happen wrt Baltics/NATO/Ukraine/ISIS/Middle East etc?

Basically the main cause for panic here seems to be that people fear Trump won't gaf about NATO, which will allow Putin to do what he wants. Living next door to Russia, I don't think I'm massively scared (yet) but I think I would be if I lived in Latvia.

I am not smart on any of this, but I think the Russia stuff is overblown. Crimea and Syria are crucial Russian interests, but there only seems to be a limited number of objectives like that.

The Baltic countries have sizeable Russian minorities, so if Putin and the gang wanted to stoke the flames like in Eastern Ukraine then maybe they could, but it's also pretty well functioning countries, backed by Nato and the EU, that would be able to bring order if needed imo.

And i guess you cant entirely rule out a situation like when they ended up slapping Saakashvili/Georgia around, but it seems unlikely.

11-09-2016 , 04:40 PM

#122

2/325Falcon

Conehead

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 21,907

Really hoping we get Schwarzenegger over Carson for Surgeon General so we can pump up America.

11-09-2016 , 04:42 PM

#123

darksideofthewal

adept

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 887

Quote:

Originally Posted by darksideofthewal

Runs in 2020 but gets defeated because many disappointed former supporters stay home.

Quote:

Originally Posted by miajag

Assuming the DNC learned their lesson.

I didn't say they would turn democrat, just that they would stay home. I think they're going to be a big group of disenfranchised voters. Probably they will be attracted to a Trump-like candidate, just not Trump himself.