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06-18-2012, 07:02 PM
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#121
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Election Monitor.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Cleveland, OH
Posts: 2,744
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayo
Well, maybe. We don't really know, and we never will. The fact is that our electoral apparatuses are not well-equipped to handle razor-thin margins. The official Florida margin was 537 votes, which was 0.06%. There is plenty of evidence that more eligible voters went to the polls on election day and tried to vote for Al Gore than for George W. Bush (e.g., Buchanan surging in the butterfly ballot counties, the post-election media recounts, etc.). Whether or not more legal ballots were cast for Bush or Gore is not an easily resolvable question, as the aforementioned media recounts show.
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Agreed. Unless we move to 100% electronic balloting (no paper trail omg) any result that close will have human error. The moment you have the human element you induce error into the equation. The butterfly ballot is an excellent example.
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06-18-2012, 08:44 PM
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#122
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 51,026
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
Regarding Bush v. Gore, another hilarious component is that conservatives / loloriginalists are constantly blabbing on about deferring to states, caring about separation of powers, etc., yet in this case they overruled the Florida Supreme Court, essentially without anyone even asking them to do so!
Meanwhile Scalia, who has been spitting fire about how much he hates liberal court decisions for, well, 30 plus years, says only "get over it."
The conservative wing of the Supreme Court is a hypocritical mess of self-contradiction.
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06-18-2012, 09:04 PM
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#123
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Got Out the Vote
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Saying AAAHHHHHHH
Posts: 16,641
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse
I noticed United Health group, Wellpoint, Expressscripts, Humana, Aetna are all up about 7% as a group over the last 4 weeks not including today.
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They've also come out and said they will keep a lot of the act that they've already implemented in place, i.e. staying on parents' insurance until 26, no rescission except for fraud, no limetime caps, etc.
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06-18-2012, 10:11 PM
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#124
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 51,026
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2...5fa_fact_klein
sigh
"What is notable about the conservative response to the individual mandate is not only the speed with which a legal argument that was considered fringe in 2010 had become mainstream by 2012; it’s the implication that the Republicans spent two decades pushing legislation that was in clear violation of the nation’s founding document."
Last edited by Riverman; 06-18-2012 at 10:16 PM.
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06-18-2012, 10:57 PM
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#125
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: on top of the bell curve
Posts: 56,188
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
Did you not read the handwavy article by the guy from Heritage? His mandate was totally different because erm it was designed to make deadbeats pay up, not help insure the uninsured.
God's work these republicans are doing.
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06-18-2012, 11:49 PM
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#126
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Got Out the Vote
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Saying AAAHHHHHHH
Posts: 16,641
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
2/10
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06-18-2012, 11:54 PM
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#127
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bayou in August
Posts: 62,508
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2...5fa_fact_klein
sigh
"What is notable about the conservative response to the individual mandate is not only the speed with which a legal argument that was considered fringe in 2010 had become mainstream by 2012; it’s the implication that the Republicans spent two decades pushing legislation that was in clear violation of the nation’s founding document."
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Lol it was considered fringe by a bunch of liberals with their head in the sand, but it wasn't actually fringe at all.
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06-19-2012, 12:44 AM
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#128
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Here
Posts: 8,716
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
Lol it was considered fringe by a bunch of liberals with their head in the sand, but it wasn't actually fringe at all.
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Then why did Republicans want to use it as a national model in the 1990s? Were they playing 8-dimensional chess?
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06-19-2012, 12:48 AM
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#129
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 6,303
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
Wow are people still butt hurt over the 2000 election?
Here's how it is:
There is >0% and <100% chance Bush got more votes than Gore.
There is >0% and <100% chance Gore got more votes than Bush.
So no matter who ended up getting the official win, there is % chance the wrong guy was getting it.
You can see how this is different than most elections, where it is 100% known who got the most votes.
Given that Bush was ahead after the first count and the official recount, it's pretty clear at that point you just gotta give it to him and accept the fact there is a chance it's the wrong guy, but know that if it had been Gore there still would have been a bigger chance it was the wrong guy.
The thing was a cluster and no outcome was gonna tell you exactly what the truth was.
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06-19-2012, 12:58 AM
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#130
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 6,303
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
Oh and I predict 5-4 on the health care crap, either way.
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06-19-2012, 01:14 AM
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#131
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bayou in August
Posts: 62,508
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turn Prophet
Then why did Republicans want to use it as a national model in the 1990s? Were they playing 8-dimensional chess?
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Because the plans never got out of infancy.
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06-19-2012, 01:26 AM
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#132
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bayou in August
Posts: 62,508
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
To expand a bit further, republicans controlled the House and senate all but two years (when dems held 51 seats in the senate) in between 1995-2005. If the individual mandate was actually a part of the republican platform, you'd expect some sort of actual movement in that direction.
Shockingly,mthat never happened, and now I get to see some awesome revisionist history.
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06-19-2012, 05:25 AM
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#133
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 6,381
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
A lot of what the Republicans want never happens. See fiscal discipline for example.
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06-19-2012, 06:37 AM
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#134
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 15,488
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cotton Hill
Oh and I predict 5-4 on the health care crap, either way.
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Yep.
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06-19-2012, 09:55 AM
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#135
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: 2+2 is not a substitute for therapy
Posts: 14,528
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Re: Prediction Thread: Will Supreme Court Overturn ObamaCare?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayo
There are plenty of minor cases like this one that are over nonpartisan issues where there are weird majority coalitions. That has nothing to do with the fact that the Republican nominees fairly consistently vote in favor of big business and churches and against criminal suspects and abortion and drug-users and what-have-you, and the Democratic nominees fairly consistently vote the other way when the partisan cases come along. That's what people mean when they call the justices "political hacks," and it's entirely fair.
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Since ObamaCare favors big business, are you suggesting that it's the Democratic nominees that are going to overrule it?
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