And so it begins (Iran - US precursors to war) - Page 6 - Politics and Economics

Some interesting speculation from Juan Cole. He suggests it was a fruitcake fantasy plot which Obama seized upon, and will use to court votes with militant posturing.

http://www.juancole.com/2011/10/wagg...ell-smart.html

10-13-2011 , 03:37 PM

#127

NameOnTheCake

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Quote:

Originally Posted by LirvA

How about that doozie the other day where Obama waived a ban on military aid for countries that use child soldiers. Obama 2012!

trying to pick up some libertarian voters, savvy move imo

10-13-2011 , 04:03 PM

#128

ShttsWeak

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Not_In_My_Name

If the US government did want to create some bull**** fake flag scenario, then wouldn't they choose a far more believable plot to accuse Iran of? If you're in a meeting to create a false-flag attack, then would you really be suggesting such a confusing, complicated and far-fetched plot, or would you suggest something much more in keeping with previous Iranian behaviour and policy? There's nearly no way some CIA agent said, I know the best and most believable way to frame them, lets link them to Mexican drug cartels and develop a plan in which they were going to blow up the Saudi Ambassador in Washington. Unless they are on some sick 25th level I know that they know that I know that they know type ****, there is no way that would ever have happened.

From the scant information we have to go on at the moment, the likely answers are (in no order): an independent Iranian plot with little or no link to the regime (maybe someone with some kind of grudge, maybe a dissident looking to spark a clash to help bring down the regime or something), or a rogue element of the IRGC looking to make a power play or use the situation for their own (unknown as yet) ends. This being sanctioned by the regimes leadership seems unlikely (though there are profound internal clashes within the regime at the moment, and a deep sense of insecurity), and it seems even less likely that it is a "flase flag".

The Iranians (not dissedents within) wouldnt outsource their most brazen act of agression ever on US soil to a mexican drug cartel. It makes no logical sense whatsoever that Iran would open that can of worms. It makes no sense for Iran to believe that mexican drug traffickers would be willing to open that can of worms for 1.5 mill.

Now we have the highest levels of government (Hillary FTW) calling for an immediate response to this flagrant violation of international law.

She uses the fact that it makes no sense to convince people that it wasnt orchestrated by the US government making Iran guilty by default

10-13-2011 , 11:33 PM

#129

Gigglegirl

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I find this 'plot' so utterly bizarre.

Let's assume what the US government is saying is true and this was a plot orchestrated by the highest levels in the Iranian regime. What did the Iranians think would happen if it succeeded?
A Saudi ambassor is assassinated in Washington. Iran gains little to nothing from this scenario other than embarrasing the US and annoying Saudi.
But someone is going to take a hell of a pounding and there is about 5 suspects. Did they think no one would think of them?
And if it is linked to them, then they risk the obliteration of their nation.
Poor risk/reward ratio imo.

10-13-2011 , 11:46 PM

#130

Ineedaride2

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Gigglegirl

Exactly. This whole thing is comedic. The guy was something like a co-owner in a used car business that was described as lazy and 'not too intelligent' by virtually everyone that knew him. His acquaintances never heard him talk about politics or religion. He was contacted by a relative in Iran to coordinate a secret agent type scheme where he contracts a Mexican drug dealer (who was really a U.S. government operative) to kill a Saudi diplomat on U.S. soil.

DIRECTED BY M. NIGHT SHYAMALAN

Yeah, let's lay all the ****ing cards on the table for this.

10-14-2011 , 02:02 AM

#131

Shoe

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Any of you Iranian sympathizers should just move there, see how your life turns out.

Maybe you will be freed from jail after living a couple years in terrible conditions after our evil government bails your ass out just because your parent's were stupid enough to have sex in America.

10-14-2011 , 02:04 AM

#132

goofyballer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoe

Any of you Iranian sympathizers should just move there, see how your life turns out.

wat

10-14-2011 , 02:06 AM

#133

Shoe

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

wat

See thread title, and several poasts itt. Obvious biasness

10-14-2011 , 02:13 AM

#134

goofyballer

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I'm confused as to what you're implying though. "This so-called terror plot is ******ed and we should prob not attack Iran" = "I love Iran and I'm a hypocrite if I don't want to move there"?

10-14-2011 , 02:21 AM

#135

Shoe

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

I'm confused as to what you're implying though. "This so-called terror plot is ******ed and we should prob not attack Iran" = "I love Iran and I'm a hypocrite if I don't want to move there"?

I think it is ridiculous to imply the U.S. is fabricating this as a precursor to attack Iran. My anger is directed towards those who are strongly in this camp.

I also agree it is ridiculous to think that the Iranian leadership would be stupid enough to try a plot like this.

I only see two plausible scenarios:

1. There is a rogue element within the Iranian revolutionary guard that acted out on their own, and will probably be jailed/executed soon.

2. Another country (who knows who, Saudi Arabia or maybe even Israel?) is trying to frame Iran to get us to attack them or impose greater sanctions.

10-14-2011 , 02:22 AM

#136

FourFins

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoe

Maybe you will be freed from jail after living a couple years in terrible conditions after our evil government bails your ass out just because your parent's were stupid enough to have sex in America.

Please don't send me to Guantanamo!!

10-14-2011 , 02:26 AM

#137

Shoe

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Quote:

Originally Posted by FourFins

Please don't send me to Guantanamo!!

Guantanamo jail > Iran jail

10-14-2011 , 02:57 AM

#138

goofyballer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoe

I think it is ridiculous to imply the U.S. is fabricating this as a precursor to attack Iran. My anger is directed towards those who are strongly in this camp.

Well, we did the same thing to Iraq...

10-14-2011 , 03:17 AM

#139

Van Broken

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoe

I thought those 2 scenerios were likely as well, but there is a third scenerio that is possible involving US fabrication but not as a precursor to war. Basically a fake "beating of the war drums" to get concessions from Iran. I heard the IAEA just announced that it is on board with the whole "Iran is building nukes" idea, so maybe it has something to do with that.

10-14-2011 , 03:57 AM

#140

LirvA

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoe

Guantanamo jail > Iran jail

citation needed

10-14-2011 , 05:50 AM

#141

Brons

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoe

1. There is a rogue element within the Iranian revolutionary guard that acted out on their own, and will probably be jailed/executed soon.

Assume this is correct for a minute. Is this a reason to beat the war drum and take action against Iran? Because that's what the USG is doing right now.

Remember that the USG didn't take action against Saudi Arabia after 9/11.

10-14-2011 , 07:05 AM

#142

MuresanForMVP

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoe

Translation: shut up with your skepticism, the US government wouldnt lie to you. Beat the war drums or just giiiiitttt out!

All people are saying is this story sounds like bull**** so, hey, maybe we shouldnt use military options before we know wtf happened and who was behind it

10-14-2011 , 08:18 AM

#143

Regret$

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Well, we did the same thing to Iraq...

Hey man, history is for ****ies and people who don't believe in repeating stuff. Terrorists imo.

I don't need history. I have a pickup truck instead.

10-14-2011 , 08:31 AM

#144

MuresanForMVP

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"Multiple sources" support the idea that iran was behind it. Odds we ever see the evidence, or find out who the sources are?

10-14-2011 , 08:48 AM

#145

LirvA

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bout tree fiddy

.. wait no, bout zero

10-14-2011 , 08:52 AM

#146

Jbrochu

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoe

Our evil govt is in fact a very large reason for why they have their current evil govt. And according to sources who have been inside Iran in the past 10 years, many Iranians (probably even a strong majority) are bright enough to see their govt for what it is - something we cannot say about ourselves here in America.

But keep on swallowing the story our govt is selling you.